Author: Frank, PANews

Whenever the market enters a period of uncertainty, some people attempt to predict the next trend using a "tracing the boat to find the sword" approach of historical regression. In such cases, people often see these theories and charts as evidence that history repeats itself, seemingly automatically overlapping and verifying future market movements with a certain period in the past.

This overlap seems to have a magical effect and is often verified. Some bloggers claim that the accuracy rate of such predictions can reach 75% to 80%.

Is this kind of "marking the boat to find the sword" style price prediction, which has repeatedly gone viral on social media, actually helping the market identify the stage, or is it just packaging noise as a prophecy?

From "tick-tock fractals" to "historical rhymes"

The peak prediction for the October 2025 market top came from an analyst named CryptoBullet. He created an analysis method called "tick-tock," which started in May 2025. CryptoBullet predicted that the price of BTC would peak in October.

Ultimately, the model successfully predicted the end of the bull market. However, regarding the price, CryptoBullet predicted $150,000, while the actual highest price only reached $126,000.

From the perspective of his predictive model's principles, achieving such an effect was expected. His main logic is that in the past few cycles, a certain number of days after a halving often approached the top. When the market entered a similar window, extrapolating the same time interval and price development, it was possible that in October, the price would reach a high of $150,000. In this logic, the most important parameter is the time cycle, so the time prediction achieved relatively accurate points, but the price prediction failed to hit the mark.

Another example is KillaXBT, whose core idea is that history doesn't repeat itself exactly, but it often "rhymes." He combines time cycles, historical pivot windows, and structural symmetry to adapt to the current market.

For example, he doesn't rigidly impose a ratio on all time periods and emphasize what will happen at any given time. Instead, he compares and analyzes the current price window and trend with a certain stage in historical trends, and then makes a vague prediction about the possible next trend.

This prediction doesn't involve very specific prices or specific time points. It simply judges whether the market will rise or fall next.

KillaXBT claims that this prediction accuracy can reach 75% to 80%.

PANews reviewed several of his recent predictions. For example, in December 2025, he analyzed the price movement and found it highly similar to that of 2021. He predicted a potential bottom at $80,000 followed by a break above $90,000. The actual price movement did not fall below $80,000, but it did eventually break through $90,000, reaching a high of nearly $98,000. While the price prediction was not accurate, the price movement in this instance did indeed resemble his simulated range for 2021.

In January 2026, KillaXBT, using another forecasting method, stated that based on the statistical pattern of the past seven months, the market had an average decline of 8% in the two weeks following the 14th of each month. Therefore, he predicted that after January 14th, the market might enter another downward trend, with a drop of at least 8%.

In fact, this prediction also proved accurate. After a brief peak on January 15, the market did indeed enter a rapid downward trend, with a maximum drop of over 38%.

In February 2026, he predicted again that the price movement would follow a similar pattern to 2022. He suggested a possible surge followed by a drop below $60,000 to form a bottoming range. Of course, this prediction has not yet been verified. However, the recent rebound to around $74,000 does indeed validate part of his predicted price action.

At first glance, KillaXBT's predictions seem quite accurate. This has earned him a lot of attention and fans.

Metaphysics or Science? The Three Logics Behind the High Winning Rate of "Marking the Boat to Find the Sword"

But the next question is more practical: why are these "marking the boat to find the sword" style predictions accurate? Is it metaphysics or does it have some scientific basis?

First: History does indeed rhyme, but the essence of this rhyme lies in the fact that market structures caused by liquidity and market enthusiasm are always similar. For example, the "Wyckoff trading method" divides the market into four stages: accumulation, markup, distribution, and decline.

Behind this recurring market evolution lies the recurring pattern of market sentiment, from panic to euphoria, and then from euphoria back to panic.

Secondly, this predictive ability isn't a unique, "mark-the-boat" approach; most commonly used technical indicators can achieve similar predictive results. If you look back at the historical performance of indicators such as MACD, RSI, and trend lines, you'll find that these indicators often provide early warnings at price tops and bottoms. However, firstly, these indicators are too familiar to traders and lack any sense of mystery. Secondly, compared to the "mark-the-boat" method, these indicators don't visually represent the specific price structure (e.g., an initial rise followed by a fall). But people instinctively prefer this more intuitive and simpler representation.

Third: the "luck bias" after a large number of predictions. The book *Fooled by Randomness* provides an example: if you put an infinite number of monkeys in front of a typewriter and let them type randomly, one of them will definitely type out the entire *Iliad* word for word. While this doesn't mean these analysts are simply making random analyses, it illustrates that social media generates a massive number of predictions daily. Incorrect predictions either go unnoticed or are silently deleted. The remaining, widely recognized high-quality predictions largely reflect the "luck bias." KOLs aim for traffic, while traders aim for real money in their accounts.

The "marking the boat to find the sword" style of prediction is not new in the crypto space. Numerous similar theories emerged years ago. For example, TechDev overlaid Bitcoin's monthly chart with the 2013 cycle and the gold price movement of the 1970s, predicting a top of $200,000 to $390,000. PlanB used a stock-to-flow ratio model and a floor model to extrapolate the halving event to near $100,000. Many analysts also directly applied localized price ranges from 2017 and 2021 to the current market trend.

By this point in the cycle, almost all of these forecasters have failed miserably and have largely faded from the spotlight. As the old forecasters are weeded out by the market, new chart-drawing masters will emerge with their own new mystical theories. (Related reading: When the "old map" no longer applies: A review of 8 classic crypto indicators that have failed and the structural reasons behind them )

Predicting direction is not the same as having a trading strategy; this is a fatal flaw in practice.

Let's look at an even more important question: Does this kind of "marking the boat to find the sword" approach have any practical application in actual transactions?

Let's review the cases mentioned above to illustrate this point.

Let's first look at CryptoBullet's prediction: it will peak at $150,000 in October 2025. In actual trading, factors to consider typically include price direction, precise timing, stop-loss and take-profit orders, and position management.

CryptoBullet's prediction only provided a relatively vague timeframe, and the price prediction was incorrect. As an executable trading strategy, such a judgment has limited reference value. It's difficult to accurately establish a short position in early October based solely on a statement like "October peak," because this judgment provides neither a clear entry point nor clear invalidation conditions. If traders short too early, they are likely to be stopped out by the market at the end of the upward trend; and if they wait until the price actually shows signs of weakening before looking back at this prediction, it's more of a hindsight confirmation that "the timing window was roughly correct," rather than a trading system that can be used to place orders directly.

Let's look at KillaXBT's prediction from December. Its help in actual trading is closer to directional judgment than an execution manual. He tells you, "The trend will most likely bottom out first, then break upwards," but he doesn't tell you whether to buy around $82,000, $80,000, or $78,000, nor does he tell you that if it falls below a certain level, this analogy will fail. For medium- to long-term investors, such judgments might help stabilize their positions and prevent panic selling during a downtrend. However, for traders who need precise entry and exit points, it still lacks the most crucial execution information.

KillaXBT's January prediction may have been the most accurate one yet, but the problem is that the price only started to fall 15 days later. If you place an order based on this prediction method, you are likely to be stopped out by the upward price first. In addition, this prediction structure does not contain specific price information, so it is impossible to set stop-loss and take-profit orders based on this prediction model.

In summary, this kind of "marking the boat to find the sword" prediction is more like a phase identification tool than a directly reusable trading strategy. It can occasionally help the market identify risk zones and sentiment turning points, and it can indeed provide some inspiration in ambiguous directions. But once it is packaged as a highly certain prediction, problems quickly become apparent.

History may rhyme, but it won't simply be copied from a screenshot.

For ordinary investors, what is truly worth learning from is not a particular "miracle chart," but rather the sentiment, liquidity, and structural changes that these charts attempt to convey. What they should be wary of is mistaking such vague stage judgments for precise trading instructions.

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