PA Daily | Changpeng Zhao predicts the crypto market may be entering a "supercycle"; SpaceX plans IPO to raise over $30 billion, potentially becoming the largest in history.

  • Market Outlook: Binance founder Changpeng Zhao suggests the crypto market may be entering a "supercycle," potentially breaking Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle due to increased institutional involvement. ARK Invest's Cathie Wood also notes Bitcoin's volatility is decreasing, with institutional adoption possibly preventing major price drops.
  • Regulatory Developments: The U.S. SEC Chairman stated that most ICOs are outside its jurisdiction, classifying them as non-securities. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate's crypto market structure bill is expected to be released this week. Japan will require crypto exchanges to hold liability reserves, and France plans to relax rules on crypto trading for retail investors.
  • Major Corporate News: SpaceX is advancing plans for an IPO that could raise over $30 billion, potentially becoming the largest in history. MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor reported that several major banks, including BNY Mellon and Morgan Stanley, have begun issuing loans secured by Bitcoin.
  • Notable Transactions: After a decade of dormancy, wallets linked to the Silk Road transferred $3.14 million in Bitcoin. Separately, Ethereum and Bitcoin spot ETFs saw significant net inflows of $178 million and $152 million, respectively, on December 9th.
  • Security Incident: Binance co-CEO He Yi's WeChat account was hacked and used to promote a meme coin. The account has since been recovered.
  • Project Updates: Privacy-focused project Octra announced a $20 million public token sale on December 18th, valuing the company at $200 million. Coinbase listed new tokens but postponed the listing of Plume (PLUME).
Summary

Today's top news highlights:

After a decade of silence, a Silk Road-affiliated wallet transferred $3.14 million worth of Bitcoin to an unknown address.

SpaceX plans to raise over $30 billion in its IPO, potentially becoming the largest ever.

Octra will hold a $20 million public token sale on Sonar on December 18th, valuing the company at $200 million.

Michael Saylor: Several major banks, including Bank of New York Mellon and Morgan Stanley, have begun issuing loans secured by Bitcoin.

Changpeng Zhao: The crypto market may be entering a "supercycle," and the "four-year cycle" for Bitcoin may no longer apply.

He Yi: My WeChat account has been recovered. I suspect that malicious individuals used external verification to change the password.

Macro

Japan will require cryptocurrency exchanges to hold liability reserves or purchase insurance.

According to Cointelegraph, Japan will require cryptocurrency exchanges to hold liability reserves or purchase insurance to ensure they can compensate customers in the event of a hack, a major regulatory change that could reshape the industry landscape.

France plans to relax rules on cryptocurrency trading for retail investors, following the UK's lead in making similar changes across the EU.

According to Cryptopolitan, the French Financial Markets Authority (AMF) will update its regulations to allow the sale of certain crypto investment products to retail investors. This follows the UK Financial Conduct Authority's (FCA) plan to ease restrictions on retail investment in cryptocurrency ETNs. Since the ban was implemented in October 2025, this rule adjustment by the French AMF will, for the first time, allow retail marketing of crypto index ETNs and remove the warning label requirement for eligible products. The revised rules of the French AMF address the nature of crypto assets, such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other crypto assets that meet requirements regarding market capitalization, average trading volume, and the level of regulation of the trading platform. The AMF plans to review this policy change in the first half of 2027.

He Yi's WeChat account was suspected of being hacked and used to promote a certain Meme coin.

According to crypto KOL AB Kuai.Dong, Binance co-CEO He Yi's WeChat account was suspected of being hacked, and she posted on her WeChat Moments promoting the meme coin Mubarakah.

The U.S. Senate version of the crypto market structure bill is expected to be released this week, with hearings and a vote scheduled for next week.

According to The Block, New York Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and Wyoming Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis spoke at the Blockchain Association Policy Summit in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday, detailing the progress lawmakers are making in pushing for a comprehensive regulatory bill for the cryptocurrency industry (i.e., the Crypto Market Structure Act). Gillibrand revealed that negotiations between Democrats and Republicans on the crypto bill have been ongoing, with the first bipartisan meeting last week progressing smoothly and no factors hindering its advancement. On Monday evening, after a meeting with Democrats, she presented her final requests to Republican staff for inclusion in the bill and stated that these requests had been submitted. She also mentioned that she and Lummis, among others, would further discuss some of the requests and were very optimistic that the final bill would be comprehensive, as the House had not addressed all the issues in their draft, such as how to regulate decentralized finance exchanges. Lummis, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, indicated that the current goal is to share the draft bill this weekend, hold hearings next week for revisions, and vote on the bill. She also mentioned that negotiations have extended to the White House level, and that while Democrats and Republicans are negotiating, they are also working with industry and the White House, like playing a three-dimensional game. In addition, Lummis stated that she negotiated the ethics clause with Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego and sent the clause to the White House, but the White House returned the clause, saying that it could be done better. She plans to try to communicate with the White House again.

US SEC Chairman: Many types of cryptocurrency ICOs are not under the SEC's jurisdiction.

According to The Block, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated at the Blockchain Association's annual policy summit on Tuesday that many types of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) should be considered non-securities transactions and are outside the jurisdiction of Wall Street regulators. He explained that this is precisely what the SEC wants to encourage, as these types of offerings, by its definition, do not fall under the category of securities. Atkins specifically mentioned the token taxonomy he introduced last month, which divides the crypto industry into four categories of tokens. Last month, he pointed out that network tokens, digital collectibles, and digital instruments should not be considered securities in themselves. On Tuesday, he further stated that ICOs involving these three types of tokens should also be considered non-securities transactions, meaning they are not subject to SEC regulation. Atkins also mentioned that, regarding ICOs, the only category of tokens the SEC believes its agency should regulate is tokenized securities, which are tokenized forms of securities already under SEC regulation and traded on-chain. He further explained that ICOs span four themes, three of which fall under the jurisdiction of the CFTC, and the SEC will delegate these matters to the CFTC while focusing on regulating tokenized securities.

SpaceX plans to raise over $30 billion in its IPO, potentially becoming the largest ever.

According to CLS (China Lianhe Securities), SpaceX is pushing forward with its initial public offering (IPO) plan, with an expected fundraising scale exceeding $30 billion, potentially becoming the largest IPO in history. The company targets a valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion, far surpassing Saudi Aramco's record of $29 billion raised in 2019. The funds raised will be used to develop space data centers and purchase related chips. SpaceX expects revenue to reach $15 billion by 2025, and executives revealed that the IPO could begin as early as mid-to-late 2026, but may be delayed until 2027 due to market conditions. Previous reports indicated that SpaceX planned to sell internal shares at a valuation of $800 billion, with a planned IPO in the second half of next year.

Opinion

He Yi: My WeChat account has been recovered. I suspect that malicious individuals used external verification to change the password.

Binance CEO He Yi stated that her account had just been recovered and she suspects that criminals are using aliases such as reporting problems and seeking help to add her as a friend and lurk. She reminded everyone to strengthen external verification, change passwords promptly, and inform each other to prevent more people from being scammed.

Analysts say that a PSIP below 50% typically indicates a bear market bottom, and $62,000 may be a reference point for a Bitcoin bear market bottom.

According to analyst Murphy, the BTC Profitable Supply Percentage (PSIP) fell below the 65% threshold (the "boom-bust line") on November 22nd and 23rd, indicating a precarious market sentiment. The PSIP has now rebounded to 67.6%, but remains within the crucial 65%-70% range. An upward move could restore confidence, while a downward move could trigger panic. Historical data shows that a PSIP below 50% typically coincides with the bottom of a bear market. Previous predictions suggested BTC would need to fall below $59,000 to reach this level, but the latest estimate has been adjusted to below $62,000. Analysts believe that BTC below $62,000 may present a high-value buying opportunity, but patience is still needed to wait for market developments. Related reading: Trading Moment: FOMC Decision Imminent, Bitcoin at $91,500 Becomes Key Support, Ethereum Aims at $3,500.

Michael Saylor: Several major banks, including Bank of New York Mellon and Morgan Stanley, have begun issuing loans secured by Bitcoin.

According to Cointelegraph, Strategy founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor stated that several major banks, including BNY Mellon, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Charles Schwab, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup, have begun issuing loans using Bitcoin as collateral.

Changpeng Zhao: The crypto market may be entering a "supercycle," and the "four-year cycle" for Bitcoin may no longer apply.

According to Bloomingbit, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao stated at the Bitcoin Middle East Conference in Abu Dhabi that the "four-year cycle" for Bitcoin may no longer apply, and mentioned that with increased institutional participation, the market may be entering a "supercycle." A supercycle refers to a market cycle where the impact of institutional and regulatory capital flows is stronger than the price cycle centered on traditional halving events. Zhao also stated that discussions about national-level Bitcoin reserves may spread. He suggested that if the US engages in discussions about strategic reserves, other countries may follow suit.

Coinbase: Cautiously optimistic about the current market, as speculative bubbles have deflated.

Coinbase Institutional published an article on its X platform stating that the market turmoil in November may have laid the foundation for December's market movements. Open interest in BTC, ETH, and SOL perpetual contracts decreased by 16% month-over-month in November; US spot ETFs saw outflows of $3.5 billion in BTC and $1.4 billion in ETH; BTC perpetual contract funding rates briefly fell to two standard deviations below the 90-day moving average before rebounding. The institution believes that its cautious optimism stems from the deflation of speculative bubbles. With systemic leverage having fallen from approximately 10% of total market capitalization in the summer to 4%–5%, the market structure is healthier, making a sharp correction less likely before the end of the year.

Analysts predict that Yi Lihua's ETH position established at $2700 has already risen by 22.2%.

According to on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa, Liquid Capital founder Jackyi_ld's ETH position established at $2700 has already increased by 22.2%. From November 23rd to November 27th, Jackyi openly stated on Twitter that he was fully invested, mentioning that 5 out of the 6 tokens he mentioned were rising, with ETH showing the largest increase (22.2%), followed by BTC (7.11%). The only token currently showing a loss was ASTER (-19.78%), but since the position size was not disclosed, the unrealized profit could not be calculated. It should also be noted that, except for ETH, whose cost was explicitly disclosed, the costs of the other tokens were estimated based on Jackyi's tweet time (i.e., 14:30 on November 23rd) and are not the actual costs; they are for reference only.

Zhao Changpeng: I haven't used WeChat for many years and will not directly promote any Meme coins.

Regarding He Yi's WeChat account being hacked, Zhao Changpeng posted on the X platform: "I hope the next one isn't my account. I haven't used WeChat for many years. I also won't directly push any meme CAs. Please be careful."

Cathie Wood: Bitcoin is entering a new phase with smaller pullbacks.

According to Cryptobriefing, Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, believes that Bitcoin is entering a phase where institutional adoption may prevent a significant price drop. In a recent interview with "Mornings with Maria," she stated, "Bitcoin's role as a risk-averse asset may break its historical four-year boom-and-bust cycle, where it often plummeted by 75% to 90% in its early stages. Its volatility is decreasing, and it's currently down about 30%. While Bitcoin has acted as a safe-haven asset during past crises, including the European sovereign debt crisis and the US regional banking crisis, it is now exhibiting characteristics of a risk-averse asset. There are concerns about Bitcoin's four-year cycle pattern, but institutional participation in this asset class may prevent further declines. Bitcoin's price may have bottomed out a few weeks ago." Over the past three months, Bitcoin has fallen by 20%, while gold prices have climbed nearly 60% this year. Wood predicts this trend may reverse next year, with gold prices potentially falling and Bitcoin poised to rise. Wood stated, "Today, gold is more of a safe-haven asset, and its rise reflects the anxieties we face, with investors using it to hedge against geopolitical risks. Looking back to the early 1980s and late 1990s, as we entered a true golden age of innovation, ending with the internet age, gold prices steadily declined. We believe the same scenario may unfold again today, with Bitcoin continuing to act as a risk-averse asset and regaining momentum."

Project Updates

Binance Alpha will list RaveDAO (RAVE).

According to an official announcement, Binance Alpha will list RaveDAO (RAVE) on December 12th. Eligible users can claim the airdrop using Binance Alpha Points on the Alpha event page after trading begins. More details will be released soon.

Binance will remove several spot trading pairs, including CHR/BTC and ENJ/BTC.

According to an official announcement, based on recent review results, Binance will remove and cease trading the following spot trading pairs at 11:00 AM (UTC+8) on December 12, 2025: CHR/BTC, ENJ/BTC, HAEDAL/FDUSD, LISTA/BNB, POWR/BTC, PROVE/BNB, UMA/BTC, and ZRX/BTC.

Hyperliquid co-founder: ADL will not transfer profits and losses to HLP; its treatment of users and HLP is completely symmetrical.

Hyperliquid co-founder Jeff refuted the claim that "ADL (Automatic Liquidation) transfers profits and losses to HLP (Hyperliquidity Provider)." Jeff stated that the ADL mechanism does not transfer profits and losses to HLP, its treatment of users and HLP is completely symmetrical, and ADL will not destroy the $653 million in revenue.

Octra will hold a $20 million public token sale on Sonar on December 18th, valuing the company at $200 million.

According to The Block, Octra Labs, the organization behind the privacy-focused blockchain project Octra, will hold a public token sale on the Sonar by Echo platform on December 18th. Octra stated on Tuesday that the week-long sale plans to sell 10% of the OCT token supply at a fully diluted (FDV) valuation of $200 million, aiming to raise $20 million. The sale will be a fixed-price, commitment-based event, where any number of participants can deposit funds and receive tokens proportionally, a design intended to maximize decentralization. Octra stated that the sale share may increase if demand is high, unsold tokens will be burned, and all sold tokens will be unlocked and distributed shortly after the sale ends. Octra indicated that early investors hold 18% of the OCT token supply, Octra Labs holds 15%, and 67% will be allocated to the community, including early users, validators, funders, Echo participants, and ICO buyers, with no single investor holding more than 3% of the tokens. Octra co-founder Alex revealed that this $200 million valuation is double the valuation Octra previously achieved in its Echo fundraising. Earlier this year, Octra raised $4 million on Echo, and also secured $4 million in Pre-Seed funding from investors including Big Brain Holdings, Finality Capital Partners, Karatage, and Presto Labs.

Trump officially announced the upcoming launch of a mobile game called "Trump Billionaires Club" that uses Trump tokens.

The official Trump token X account on Memecoin has announced plans to launch a mobile game called "Trump Billionaires Club," powered by OpenLoot. The game will use Trump tokens for in-game activities.

Coinbase has listed Humidif (WET) and Jupiter (JUPITER), but has postponed the listing of Plume (PLUME).

According to an official announcement, Coinbase has launched spot trading for Humidifi (WET) and Jupiter (JUPITER), and postponed the launch of Plume (PLUME). If liquidity conditions are met and trading is supported, the PLUME-USD trading pair will begin trading on or after 01:00 Beijing time on December 11th.

Important data

SpaceX transferred 1,021 BTC to a new wallet, worth $94.48 million.

According to Onchain Lens, SpaceX has transferred 1,021 BTC (approximately $94.48 million) to a new wallet address.

Analyst Ali: Six out of the seven FOMC meetings this year have led to BTC price corrections.

According to renowned crypto analyst Ali, of the seven FOMC meetings this year, six led to BTC price corrections, with only one resulting in a short-term rebound. The largest drop reached 27%, with only the May 7th meeting seeing a 15% increase. The market expects an 87.4% probability of an interest rate cut at the December 10th FOMC meeting. However, statistics show that BTC typically faces volatility and downward pressure during FOMC meetings, and investors should be wary of market reactions. The FOMC announcement will be made at 3:00 AM (Beijing time) on December 10th, followed by the Fed Chair's press conference at 3:30 AM, which could trigger significant market volatility.

Ethereum spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of $178 million yesterday, with Fidelity's FETH ETF leading the way with a net inflow of $51.4727 million.

According to SoSoValue data, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of $178 million yesterday (December 9th, Eastern Time). The Ethereum spot ETF with the largest single-day net inflow was the Fidelity ETF (FETH), with a net inflow of $51.4727 million, bringing FETH's historical total net inflow to $2.674 billion. This was followed by the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust ETF (ETH), with a net inflow of $45.1899 million, bringing ETH's historical total net inflow to $1.513 billion. As of press time, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs was $21.036 billion, with an ETF net asset value ratio (market capitalization as a percentage of Ethereum's total market capitalization) of 5.24%, and a historical cumulative net inflow of $13.092 billion.

Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of $152 million yesterday, with Fidelity FBTC leading the way with a net inflow of $199 million.

According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of $152 million yesterday (December 9th, Eastern Time). The Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest single-day net inflow was Fidelity ETF FBTC, with a net inflow of $199 million, bringing its historical total net inflow to $12.25 billion. This was followed by Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF BTC, with a net inflow of $33.7888 million, bringing its historical total net inflow to $1.993 billion. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest single-day net outflow was BlackRock ETF IBIT, with a net outflow of $135 million, bringing its historical total net inflow to $62.411 billion. As of press time, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $122.104 billion, with an ETF net asset ratio (market capitalization as a percentage of Bitcoin's total market capitalization) of 6.57%, and a historical cumulative net inflow of $57.709 billion.

After a decade of silence, a Silk Road-affiliated wallet transferred $3.14 million worth of Bitcoin to an unknown address.

According to The Block, hundreds of cryptocurrency wallets associated with Silk Road, which had been dormant for over a decade, became active again on Tuesday, transferring Bitcoin to an unidentified address. Data from Arkham Intelligence shows that eight hours earlier, approximately 312 wallets linked to the now-closed darknet market Silk Road collectively transferred $3.14 million worth of Bitcoin to the address "bc1q…ga54". The reason for this sudden activity is unclear. According to Arkham, wallets associated with Silk Road currently hold approximately $41.3 million worth of Bitcoin.

A whale withdrew another 13.44 million ASTER tokens from Binance, after previously selling at a high price and incurring a loss of $34.5 million.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, the whale address 0xFB3B withdrew another 13.44 million ASTER tokens (worth $13.04 million) from Binance eight hours ago. Previously, this whale withdrew 64.53 million ASTER tokens (worth $133.68 million) from Gate.io when the price was near its peak of $2.07, and then deposited the same 64.53 million ASTER tokens (worth $99.14 million) into Binance at a price of $1.54, resulting in a loss of $34.5 million.

Ethena Labs withdrew 1.59 billion ENA tokens from Coinbase Prime, worth approximately $443 million.

According to Onchain Lens, Ethena Labs withdrew 1.59 billion ENA tokens from Coinbase Prime, worth $443.33 million.

Investment and financing/acquisition

RWA tokenization network Real Finance announced it has raised $29 million in private funding.

Real Finance, a tokenization network for Real-World Assets (RWA), announced it has secured $29 million in private funding to build its RWA infrastructure layer. The round included a $25 million capital commitment from digital asset investment firm Nimbus Capital, with participation from Magnus Capital and Frekaz Group.

Cascade launches 24/7 brokerage services covering cryptocurrency perpetual contracts, raising $15 million to date.

According to CoinDesk, New York-based startup Cascade has launched a new 24/7 brokerage service. The service is built on a unified margin account linked to perpetual markets covering cryptocurrencies, major U.S. stocks, and assets related to private companies such as OpenAI, SpaceX, and Stripe. Currently, the platform is accessible to a select group of invited depositors and is expected to open to the public in early 2026. Initially, the platform will offer more than 10 perpetual markets, with plans to gradually expand the product lineup. To date, Cascade has raised $15 million from investors including Polychain Capital, Variant, Coinbase Ventures, and Archetype.

Institutional holdings

Strive launches $500 million SATA stock ATM funding plan, with some net proceeds to be used to purchase Bitcoin.

According to Globenewswire, Bitcoin asset reserve company Strive (NASDAQ: ASST; SATA) announced that it has signed a sale agreement. Under the agreement, Strive may issue and sell its Series A variable-rate perpetual preferred stock, with a par value of $0.001 per share (“SATA Stock”), for a total offering price of up to $500 million (“ATM Program”). Strive intends to use the net proceeds from the ATM Program for general corporate purposes, including but not limited to: purchasing Bitcoin and Bitcoin-related products, using it as working capital, purchasing revenue-generating assets to expand the company’s business, making other capital expenditures, repurchasing its Class A common stock, and/or repaying debt. Strive may also use these proceeds to fund the acquisition of businesses, assets, or technologies complementary to its current business.

Shares of Bitcoin treasury firm Twenty One fell 20% after its merger with Cantor Equity.

According to Bloomberg, Twenty One Capital Inc. merged with special purpose acquisition company Cantor Equity Partners Inc. on Tuesday to become the latest cryptocurrency company to go public, with its shares falling 20% on their first day of trading. The Bitcoin treasury opened at $10.74 per share on Tuesday, below Cantor SPAC's closing price of $14.27. The stock closed at $11.42, giving the company a market capitalization of approximately $4 billion based on the number of shares outstanding as listed in the filing. Twenty One Capital Inc., formed by affiliates of Cantor Fitzgerald LP, Tether, and SoftBank, is a Bitcoin company that also plans to focus on building the cryptocurrency's financial infrastructure and create media and educational resources about Bitcoin. Twenty One holds approximately $3.9 billion worth of Bitcoin, and the company will be majority-owned by Tether and Bitfinex, with SoftBank holding a significant minority stake.

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