Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Macroeconomic market sentiment is being influenced by a complex interplay of factors. The anticipated end to the US government shutdown, coupled with weak employment data, has fueled market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, briefly boosting the Dow Jones Industrial Average. However, according to Nick Timiraos , a key figure in the Fed's internal discourse, significant disagreements exist within the Fed regarding its future policy path. Officials are arguing over two major risks: persistent inflation and a weak labor market, adding uncertainty to future interest rate decisions.

Meanwhile, a heated debate about AI is unfolding in the tech industry. SoftBank Group announced on Tuesday the sale of all its Nvidia shares and a subsequent $22.5 billion investment in OpenAI. Despite its quarterly earnings far exceeding expectations, market concerns about an AI bubble led to a sharp drop in its stock price. Amid this speculative frenzy, outgoing Warren Buffett offered a different perspective in his "final letter," warning against corporate greed and reiterating his long-standing philosophy of long-term value investing. Looking ahead, analyst Banmu Xia predicts that the market may remain volatile in the short term, but will see a moderate upward trend in the medium term as the Federal Reserve may stop its balance sheet reduction in December. A truly large-scale liquidity injection may not occur until after May next year, at which point a significant rally could begin.

Regarding Bitcoin , analyst Banmu Xia believes it has entered the early stages of a bear market and is currently in a large fourth-wave sideways correction phase. In the short term, market sentiment is hesitant and cautious. Analyst Killa points out that if the price fails to recover after breaking below the key support level of $104,000, it may further decline to the $100,000 or even $98,000 area. He notes that BTC typically rebounds before the 14th of each month over the past five months, but this month still faces downward pressure. Daan Crypto Trades also mentions that after the $104,000 CME gap was filled, there remains a gap worth watching in the $92,000 area. Crypto Chase considers $98,000 an ideal risk-reward point for going long and predicts that even in the worst-case scenario, the price may find institutional support at the $90,000 level. Despite short-term downward pressure, many analysts believe the pullback is nearing its end. Swissblock believes the risk signal has turned low, indicating selling pressure is easing. Currently, Bitcoin's price movement could see two scenarios: first, the price could rise back above the $108,500-$110,000 range, confirming market stability and leading to further gains; second, the price could fall back to the $103,000-$100,000 range, potentially leading to renewed market volatility in the short term. Astronomer predicts a target of $112,000 after the current pullback ends. Looking at a longer timeframe, the outlook is extremely optimistic. 10T Holdings founder Dan Tapiero maintains his target of $180,000 for this bull run, while Gert Van Lagen, based on wave theory, predicts the next expansion could push Bitcoin to the $200,000-$240,000 range.

Ethereum is facing key technical resistance. Several analysts point to a dense resistance zone between $3,700 and $3,900, with Michael van de Poppe believing a break above this zone is necessary to reach all-time highs. Failure to break through could lead to a pullback. Man of Bitcoin identifies a support zone between $3,176 and $3,343, while Crypto Chase focuses on potential accumulation positions between $3,000 and $2,900, believing a drop below $2,600 is less likely.

Recently, Uniswap's price surged nearly 50% after its foundation proposed activating the protocol fee switch and burning UNI tokens. However, it subsequently fell back from a high of $10.30 to $8.70 due to sell-offs by whale addresses (including one suspected to be Variant Fund) and comments from competitors suggesting the timing was inappropriate. Conflux (CFX) saw its price briefly surge over 40% this morning after announcing the launch of the offshore stablecoin CNHT0, which supports the RMB and facilitates trade settlements under the Belt and Road Initiative. However, these gains were subsequently wiped out. Meanwhile, the privacy coin sector, which had previously experienced significant gains, saw a correction. Zcash (ZEC) fell from a high of $750 to around $470. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that he might consider increasing his holdings if the price corrects to the $300-$350 range.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT, November 12)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $103,547 (year-to-date +10.66%), daily spot trading volume $60.7 billion

• Ethereum: $3,452 (year-to-date +3.44%), daily spot trading volume $32.04 billion.

• Fear of Greed Index: 26 (Panic)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.02 sat/vB, ETH: 0.067 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 59.4%, ETH 12.0%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: LSK, XRP, BTC, ETH, SOIL

• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 48.35%/51.65%

• Sector performance: L2 technology sector fell 4.6%, AI sector fell 3.89%.

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 142,137 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $421 million. This included $107 million in BTC liquidations, $101 million in ETH liquidations, and $33.46 million in ZEC liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of November 11)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$524 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$107 million

• Solana ETF: +$7.98 million, marking the 11th consecutive day of net inflows.

4. Today's Outlook

• Hourglass: The second phase of KYC verification for the Stable deposit vault must be completed before 7:59 AM on November 12th.

• Binance Futures will delist MANAUSD and EGLDUSD coin-margined perpetual contracts on November 13th.

• Ethereum treasury company SharpLink will release its third-quarter financial results on November 13.

• US October CPI year-on-year: Previous value 3%, expected value 3% (November 14, 21:30)

• PeaQ (PEAQ) will unlock approximately 84.84 million tokens on November 12 at 8:00 AM, representing 5.57% of the current circulating supply, worth approximately $6 million.

• Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock approximately 1.67 million tokens on November 13th at 8:00 AM, representing 0.33% of the current circulating supply, with a value of approximately $28.2 million.

• Cheelee (CHEEL) will unlock approximately 20.81 million tokens on November 13th at 8:00 AM, representing 2.95% of the current circulating supply, with a value of approximately $13.4 million.

The biggest drops among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today were: Starknet down 15.6%, SOON down 12.5%, Zcash down 10.9%, Official Trump down 9.4%, and ASI Alliance down 8.3%.

5. Hot News

• The "whale that previously borrowed cryptocurrency to short ETH" has increased its holdings by 30,549 ETH, bringing its total holdings to approximately $1.33 billion.

• JPMorgan Chase has launched its deposit token, JPM Coin, for institutional clients.

• Lighter TVL has reached $1.17 billion, surpassing Linea's.

• VCI Global plans to purchase $100 million worth of OOB tokens, and Tether will become VCI Global's largest shareholder.

• A suspected Bitmine address received 24,007 ETH from Galaxy Digital, worth approximately $82.04 million.

• Coinbase and stablecoin startup BVNK cancel $2 billion acquisition deal

• Stablecoin giant Tether spends huge sums to poach talent from HSBC and increase its gold reserves.

• Lido proposed implementing automatic buybacks using LDO/wstETH liquidity.

• VariantFund, the suspected investment firm behind UNI, transferred $27.08 million worth of UNI to Coinbase Prime.

• Uniswap Labs and the foundation proposed activating a fee switch and a UNI burning mechanism, causing UNI's price to rise nearly 38% in the past 24 hours.