Tom Lee: 90%+ AI companies may perform poorly in the future.

Tom Lee predicts that over 90% of AI companies may fail or underperform in the coming decade, drawing a parallel to the dot-com bubble where only about 2% of companies (like Amazon and Google) succeeded.

The vast majority of AI businesses are expected to prove their models unsustainable.
However, the massive returns from the few top winners could cover all losses and still generate significant excess returns for the overall sector.
Lee advises against betting on single companies and instead recommends building a diversified "exponential portfolio" that invests across the entire AI ecosystem to capture the potential upside.

Summary

When discussing AI investment, Tom Lee pointed out a harsh but crucial fact: in the next decade, no more than 10% of AI companies may truly become good investments.
This is remarkably similar to the dot-com bubble of 2000. Countless internet companies disappeared then, but the mere 2% of survivors (Amazon, Google) were enough to significantly outperform the S&P 500 in terms of investment returns, even though the other 98% failed.

AI will also exhibit the same structural characteristics:

90%+ of businesses will eventually prove that their business model is unsustainable;
However, the explosive returns of the top winners will cover all losses and still bring significant excess returns.
Therefore, instead of betting on a single company, it is better to build an "exponential portfolio" that covers the entire AI ecosystem.

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Author: PA影音

This content is for market information only and is not investment advice.

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