Author: Trading Star Tuesday
On the eve of the key moment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on March 20, the third issue of Techub News's flagship column "Trading Star Tuesday" was themed "Crypto Asset Position Attack and Defense: BTC/ETH Configuration Rules at Policy Inflection Points", which attracted great attention from the industry. Data shows that this issue, which was composed of the host Brother Qie and the guest group consisting of Balance (co-founder of Kingdata & Geniidata), God A (co-founder of RITD Lab), trader Beyond, and Cassie (researcher of LYS Lab), attracted more than 22,000 people to watch in real time through the X platform live broadcast.
As one of the most influential Web3 technology media in Hong Kong, Techub News has always been committed to building a cognitive bridge connecting institutional strategies and retail investors' actual operations.
Position strategy game before the Fed meeting
As the Fed's interest rate decision on March 20 approaches, the market's attention to monetary policy trends continues to heat up. This column focuses on "How to optimize BTC/ETH positions before the meeting". The guests provide investors with multi-dimensional strategic references from the perspectives of policy expectations, technical indicators, risk balance, institutional capital trends, and dynamic position adjustment tools.
Policy expectations and market impact of the 3/20 meeting
Balance pointed out that the Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting, but attention should be paid to the "hawkish-dovish" tendency of Powell's speech. He mentioned that the market has partially digested the expectation of interest rate cuts, and if the meeting releases a dovish signal, it may promote a short-term rebound; and long-term policies such as the stablecoin legislation in August may introduce traditional funds to the crypto market.
A God believes from the on-chain data analysis that short-term holders' holdings are at a high level. If the Fed expresses a hawkish stance, BTC may face further pullback pressure, and the key support level is expected to be around $60,000. Beyond added that the linkage between the U.S. stock market and the crypto market has increased recently, and investors can capture trading opportunities based on the opening volatility of the U.S. stock market, but they need to be wary of high leverage risks.
Application of technical indicators and capital signals
Cassie emphasized that after BTC fell below, a "Heaven and Earth Needle" pattern appeared at the weekly level, suggesting a risk of trend reversal, and suggested that investors use hedging tools to hedge against volatility.
God A pointed out from the distribution of chips that there are a large number of chips with no stop loss above US$93,000, and we need to be wary of the main funds using policy to "wash the market".
Beyond has noticed that public chains such as TON and AVAX are strengthening against the trend, and believes that funds may be diverted from BTC/ETH to undervalued tracks, and short-term traders can capture structural opportunities.
The balance between risk and return
Many guests agreed that the current market is in a stage of "high volatility and low consensus" and that defensive strategies should be adopted:
- Balance recommends reducing altcoin positions, prioritizing BTC, and paying attention to long-term narratives such as RWA and Bitcoin ecology.
- Cassie advocates the use of options tools to hedge against black swan risks, such as buying put options to protect spot positions.
- A God reminds that if BTC falls below $70,000, investors need to be wary of the liquidity crisis of altcoins and set dynamic stop-loss lines.
Enlightenment from institutional funding trends
In response to the recent market fluctuations caused by the frequent operations of "big whales", Beyond pointed out that institutional funds are exacerbating volatility through the derivatives market, and retail investors need to avoid blindly following the trend.
Balance believes that Grayscale's continued reduction of BTC holdings may be a short-term negative, but the slowdown in ETF fund inflows has been reflected in the price, and it is still optimistic about the trend of institutional allocation in the medium and long term.
Data-based tools for dynamic portfolio adjustment
Cassie shared that on-chain data platforms such as Nansen and Glassnode can help identify changes in large-scale address, and formulate a phased position building plan based on indicators such as the exchange's long-short ratio and funding rate.
God A added that investors can use the "Fear and Greed Index" to judge the extreme points of market sentiment and perform reverse operations in the extreme value area.
Respond to volatility rationally and focus on long-term value
In his summary, Brother Qie emphasized that the 3/20 meeting was only a stress test in the middle of the bull market, and investors should avoid excessive speculation on short-term policies, but should focus on the core logic of Bitcoin halving cycle and ETF fund inflows. He suggested:
- Position management: The main position is configured with BTC, and the small position captures hot spots such as public chains and Memes;
- Tool application: Make good use of hedging and options to reduce the psychological pressure of holding positions;
- Long-term perspective: If BTC pulls back to the $60,000-65,000 range, you can gradually increase your position.
