Author: 137Labs

I. The Shift in State Structure Behind Power Transfer

Iranian politics will enter a highly sensitive phase around 2026. The change of supreme power will not only alter the composition of the leadership but also bring to the forefront long-accumulated institutional changes. Mojtaba Khamenei's entry into the core of supreme power is seen by many observers as a landmark moment marking the gradual tightening of Iran's political structure.

Iran's state system remains legally based on religious authority. By constitutional design, the Council of Experts is responsible for selecting the Supreme Leader and assuming a supervisory role. However, the system's operation does not entirely depend on these formal procedures. Religious legitimacy, the military's stance, the stability of the elite alliance, and the national security situation often jointly determine the ultimate fate of power. Especially in the context of war and regional conflict, maintaining regime continuity is usually placed above procedural discussions.

This political reality has led to a gradually evolving, complex power structure in Iran. Religious institutions continue to provide the institutional framework and ideological language, but the role of security agencies in national governance is expanding. The military system not only undertakes defensive tasks but also plays a crucial role in political stability and policy implementation. The resulting power model is gradually shifting from traditional theocratic politics to a more secure state structure.

Mujtab has long been at the center of this structure. His political influence did not emerge suddenly, but rather accumulated gradually over many years of power maneuvering. His proximity to the Supreme Leader's office, his connections with conservative networks, and his stable relationships among key institutions have enabled him to maintain sustained influence within the system.

This background illustrates that the issue of power succession in Iran is often not only related to individual ability or religious status, but also closely linked to the stability of the state structure. The Supreme Leader is both a religious symbol and a coordinator of the state apparatus. Therefore, power transitions reflect a shift in the center of gravity of the system, rather than simply a change of leadership.

II . The Institutional Status and Political Influence of the Revolutionary Guard

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' position within Iran's political system has undergone profound changes. Initially established to safeguard the gains of the revolution and national security, its role has gradually expanded to broader political and economic spheres over time.

On the security front, the Revolutionary Guard is responsible for key tasks such as intelligence, counter-infiltration, and strategic defense. Its military capabilities are used not only to defend the country but also to play a significant role in regional affairs. At the same time, the organization is involved in domestic political stability efforts and possesses strong organizational and mobilization capabilities during crises.

The economic sphere also saw significant expansion. Revolutionary Guard-affiliated companies participated in numerous infrastructure projects and the energy industry, and had a broad presence in sectors such as construction, communications, and transportation. These economic activities provided the organization with a resource base and further enhanced its institutional influence.

This trend has altered the balance of political power in Iran. While religious institutions retain nominal supreme authority, governance increasingly relies on the operational capabilities of security agencies. The involvement of the military system has led to a greater emphasis on discipline and stability in the decision-making process.

Mojtaba's long-standing ties to this security system have secured him a unique position within the power structure. A 2019 U.S. Treasury Department sanctions document noted that while he did not obtain a formal position through elections or public appointment, he assumed certain powers and functions in actual political operations. This demonstrates the existence of numerous informal mechanisms within Iranian high-level politics that rely heavily on trust and personal networks.

As the Revolutionary Guard's role in the state structure continues to expand, the relationship between political leaders and the security system becomes particularly crucial. The process of power succession is therefore not merely a decision within religious institutions, but also involves the attitudes and support of the military system.

III. The Integration of Resource Allocation System with Political Power

The Iranian economy contains a vast network of assets controlled by religious foundations and quasi-official institutions. These organizations are typically legally charitable or social entities, but they control enormous economic resources.

The foundation system has extensive operations in real estate, industry, financial services, and commercial investment. Its profits are not fully incorporated into the national fiscal system but operate within an independent organizational structure. In this way, some national resources are reallocated within the system.

This mechanism plays a crucial role in Iranian politics. The distribution of economic benefits is often closely linked to the maintenance of political alliances. Institutions that control resources not only perform economic functions but also play a role in maintaining political stability. Thus, national governance and economic interests are highly intertwined.

The U.S. Treasury Department, in its sanctions against the Foundation for the Oppressed, stated that the organization and its subsidiaries wield influence in several key sectors in Iran and maintain close ties with the Supreme Leader's inner circle. The statement also mentioned that some political figures or their relatives have long used the foundation's assets at rents far below market rates.

This information suggests that in the Iranian system, wealth is not simply a matter of private property, but rather an integral part of the political structure. Economic resources flow between different levels through foundations, affiliated companies, and agency relationships.

In such an institutional environment, overseas asset allocation has gradually become a sensitive issue. If key political figures are suspected of preserving wealth through overseas investments, public opinion often links this to domestic economic pressures. The focus is not only on the size of the assets, but also on whether the allocation of resources aligns with the political narrative.

It's also important to note that cross-border assets can serve a risk management function in certain situations. In environments of prolonged sanctions and currency instability, overseas investment can act as a means of capital preservation. This further complicates the relationship between political power and economic resources.

IV. Sanctions Environment and Digital Financial Channels

International sanctions have had a lasting impact on Iran's financial system. Some banks have been excluded from the global financial communication system, and traditional cross-border payment channels have been significantly restricted. Trade settlement and international financing have consequently faced difficulties.

Against this backdrop, digital assets are gradually entering Iranian economic activity. The ability of cryptocurrencies to transfer value without relying on the traditional banking system gives them practical use in sanctioned economies.

The Iranian government has permitted some cryptocurrency mining activities and explored using digital assets for trade settlement. With the development of trading platforms and over-the-counter markets, a local crypto ecosystem has gradually formed.

Digital assets play a role in Iran's financial structure primarily in three ways. First, they serve as a supplementary channel for cross-border payments, providing alternatives in certain trade transactions. Second, they act as a capital transfer tool, offering new pathways for fund flows in an environment of financial restrictions. Third, they function as a risk diversification mechanism, used for asset preservation during periods of economic volatility.

On-chain transactions do not mean complete anonymity, but they reduce reliance on the banking system. This is of great significance for sanctioned countries.

At the same time, regional business centers play a vital role in capital flows. The Gulf region has long been an important node in Iran's trade network. Commercial agents, over-the-counter traders, and offshore companies together constitute a complex business system.

In this structure, digital assets are gradually integrated with traditional trade networks. On-chain funds can be quickly transferred to overseas nodes and then exchanged for real-world currencies or assets through over-the-counter markets. Financial activities thus exhibit characteristics of combining online and offline elements.

V. The Future Form of Iran's Power Structure

By taking into account the political, economic, and financial changes, we can see that new characteristics are emerging in Iran's state structure.

The role of security agencies in national governance continues to strengthen. Military and intelligence systems not only undertake defensive tasks but also exert significant influence on political stability and economic activities. As a result, decision-making systems have become more centralized.

Economic resources are increasingly reliant on foundations and quasi-official bodies for allocation. These organizations are not only economic entities but also play a crucial role in maintaining political alliances.

The financial structure is gradually forming a multi-layered system. Traditional banking systems, regional trade networks, and digital asset channels together constitute the framework for capital flows. Financial instruments at different levels play a role in different scenarios.

Within this institutional framework, political leaders serve not only as symbolic representatives of the state but also as coordinating nodes among multiple power networks. Their political standing is determined by religious legitimacy, support from security institutions, and resource allocation capabilities.

Mojtaba's position is at the intersection of these networks. His political influence is not an isolated phenomenon, but rather part of the long-term evolution of Iran's power structure. Religious authority, military power, economic resources, and the cross-border financial system are interconnected within this structure, collectively shaping the way the country is governed.

This combination gives Iranian politics a new character: institutional legitimacy is still expressed in religious language, while the operation of the state increasingly relies on security institutions and a complex network of resources. Iran's future development path will largely depend on how this structure continues to evolve and how its internal society and external environment influence it.

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