Macroeconomic suppression and capital weakness resonate, mainstream coins fluctuate and resist pressure, and copycats retreat, and the market enters a defensive consolidation stage

• Increased uncertainty in the macro environment suppresses risk appetite: the Fed’s expected rate cut has been delayed + tariffs and geopolitical risks have risen, suppressing market risk appetite.
• Fund momentum has been marginally restored but the structure has diverged: ETFs saw a strong inflow of 2.8 billion at the beginning of the month and turned negative this week. Stablecoin issuance was moderate, and the OTC USDT premium fell below 100%, indicating that funds were cautious.
• The structure of mainstream coins shows that BTC is oscillating and resisting pressure, while ETH is weak and bottoming out: BTC remains strong but its momentum is weakening, ETH is showing signs of bottoming out, and ETH/BTC is weak
• Liquidity in the copycat market has dried up, and risks continue to be released: TOTAL2 and TVL have declined simultaneously, OTHERS’ market share has broken, and the market is in a period of risk release.
• Maintain a defensive position, pay attention to the turning points of ETH's strength and weakness and the rhythm of capital inflows, and then deploy high-β assets.

1. Macro and market environment

• Inflation caused by tariffs could delay interest rate cuts and suppress Bitcoin prices in the short term.
• Global market volatility caused by the appreciation of the Japanese yen could lead to a short-term pullback in Bitcoin.
• If Trump's encryption policy is not fulfilled, Bitcoin may face adjustment risks.

2. Analysis of capital flows & market structure of mainstream currencies

External Funding Flows

• ETF funds: 2.80046 billion inflows this week, a large inflow
• Stablecoins: 2.3 billion new coins were issued this week, with an average daily increase of 321 million, and the issuance level is relatively high.

Market sentiment indicators

• OTC premium: Stablecoin premium continues to rise

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Technical analysis: The market is in a volatile upward range
• On-chain chip distribution: 10.3w and above chips are enhanced

Ethereum (ETH)

• The trend is weaker than BTC, ETH/BTC remains volatile, and funds continue to flow back to BTC dominance.
• On-chain changes: The increase in active addresses may indicate that the staged bottoming out has been completed.

Macroeconomic Review

(1) U.S. debt and fiscal deficit

• Current situation: The US debt is $36 trillion, interest payments are $880 billion, and there will be an additional deficit of $3 trillion in the next 10 years. Moody's downgrade (AAA to Aa1) has caused market concerns.
• Impact: High debt undermines long-term confidence in the U.S. dollar, and investors may turn to safe-haven assets such as Bitcoin. In April 2024, debt concerns have pushed up Bitcoin prices.

(2) Possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates

• Expectations: CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of maintaining the target interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% on June 18, 2025 is 97.5%, but the probability of 375-400 basis points on October 29 has risen to 39.2%, indicating that expectations for rate cuts in the second half of the year have increased. A 1% rate cut can save more than $100 billion in interest expenses.
• Impact: The interest rate cut increases liquidity, which is good for risky assets such as Bitcoin. After the 50 basis point interest rate cut in September 2024, Bitcoin has a clear long-term upward trend.

(3) US dollar trend

• Current situation: The US dollar weakened in May and the Taiwan dollar appreciated by 6%, but the report expects the US dollar to stabilize in the second half of the year due to trade negotiations and inventory liquidation. The US dollar index hit a two-year high in December 2024.
• Impact: The US dollar is negatively correlated with Bitcoin, and a weaker US dollar is good for Bitcoin. If the US dollar stabilizes, Bitcoin will be under pressure in the short term; if confidence in the US dollar declines, Bitcoin will rise in the long term.

Neutral interest rate

Current trends (June 18, 2025):

• The 97.5% probability target rate is in the 425-450 basis point range (4.25%-4.5%), indicating that the market believes that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term and the current interest rate may remain high. The possibility of a rate cut is gradually increasing:
• By July 30, 2025, the probability of 425-450 basis points dropped to 67%, and the probability of 400-425 basis points rose to 32.5%, indicating expectations of a slight rate cut.
• On September 17, 2025, the probability of 400-425 basis points rose to 54.8%, exceeding 425-450 basis points (23.2%) for the first time, and the market expected the possibility of a rate cut to increase significantly.
• On October 29, 2025, the probability of 375-400 basis points (39.2%) became the highest probability, indicating that the market expects a larger interest rate cut.

Next week's key events

Impact of key events next week

Data Release

2. On-chain data analysis

1. Changes in short- and medium-term market data that affect the market this week

1.1 Stablecoin Fund Flow

Compared with last week (5/23-5/30), the issuance of stablecoins increased from 552 million to 1.005 billion, up 82% month-on-month, and the average daily issuance increased from 78 million to 143 million, which is nearly doubled, indicating that the market capital return trend has warmed up, although not as fast as in mid-May, but it is in a mild repair stage. Compared with the high issuance cycle in April and May (such as 310 million/day), the current rhythm is still neutral and cautious, reflecting that the market has not yet fully strengthened, but marginal improvement.

1.2 ETF Fund Flow

From May 31 to June 6, the Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of $697 million, the first significant capital withdrawal in recent times, a decrease of $1.368 billion from the previous month, reflecting that institutional investors are cautious about BTC in the short term. At the same time, the price of BTC remained basically around $103,900 this week. Although the price fluctuated, it was similar to the price recorded last week. However, the net outflow of ETFs corresponded to a decrease of 6,710 BTC positions, indicating that the market has a certain degree of capital realization pressure. Although the outflow only accounted for 0.03376% of the total circulation, which is a low proportion, it is in contrast to the inflow last week, indicating that market confidence has fluctuated, and we need to be vigilant against short-term adjustment or consolidation risks. Overall, institutional sentiment has shifted from wait-and-see to a short-term retreat.

1.3 OTC Discounts and Premiums

Judging from the trend in the past week (5/31–6/6), the over-the-counter premium rates of USDT and USDC have continued to decline, both falling below 100% and entering the discount range, which is the lowest point in recent months. This shows that the current market has weak capital inflow momentum, insufficient over-the-counter buying, and investors' risk appetite has declined significantly. In normal or bull market stages, stablecoins often have a slight premium, indicating that funds are willing to buy stablecoins at a higher price to enter the market; and the current discount status means that the willingness to withdraw funds is stronger than the willingness to deposit funds, and the overall market tends to be conservative and wait-and-see. The highly consistent trends of USDT and USDC also show that this change is not a liquidity problem of a single asset, but reflects the cooling of capital sentiment in the entire crypto market. If this trend continues, it may put pressure on market prices and continue the state of oscillating downward or consolidation. On the contrary, if the premium rate rebounds rapidly in the next few days, it may be regarded as a leading signal of the market bottoming out and the reflow of funds, which deserves special attention.

1.4 MicroStrategy Purchase

Judging from MicroStrategy's Bitcoin purchases over the past two weeks, its buying power has slowed down significantly. On May 26, it bought 4,020 BTC in a big deal, investing about $427 million, and on June 2, it only increased its holdings by 705, amounting to $75 million. This is in contrast to the continued high-intensity increase in holdings in the previous months, such as a one-time purchase of 7,390 in mid-May and even a single purchase of more than 10,000 in late April. It can be seen that while the price of Bitcoin has stabilized in the range of $105,000 to $106,000, MicroStrategy has maintained an attitude of increasing its holdings, but the pace has tended to be cautious, indicating that it has gradually slowed down the pace of building positions when there is a lack of clear catalysts for rising prices in the current market.

1.5 Holdings of long-term and short-term holders

As of early June 2025, data on the BTC chain showed that the supply of long-term holders (LTH) continued to rise, reaching a six-month high of about 14.4 million BTC, indicating that the confidence of medium- and long-term funds in the market has increased, and a large number of BTC are locked in inactive wallets, further reducing liquidity. At the same time, the supply of short-term holders (STH) has been declining since the high point at the beginning of the year, reaching a low point at the end of May, indicating that the selling pressure has continued to weaken in the past few months. However, there has been a slight rebound in the past week, which may reflect that some short-term traders in the market have begun to buy at the bottom, or they are betting on price fluctuations in a volatile market.

2. Changes in mid-term market data that affect the market this week

2.1 Coin holding address ratio and URPD

From the perspective of the proportion of coins held by the coin holding addresses, we focus on the addresses with a holding amount greater than 1K and less than 10K. The proportion of holdings has increased to a certain extent this week. Overall, the number of coins held is still shifting to the addresses with a holding amount greater than 100 and less than 1K.

On 5/30, 92927-98525 was the main chip concentration area, and on 6/7, the number of chips in the $103000-105000 range increased significantly. Compared with the previous period, the absolute change in price was not large, which shows that a certain degree of BTC was traded and locked at this high level recently (increased from 4.33% to 6.86%), forming a new chip concentration area.

To summarize this week's market, from the current perspective (2025/6/7), the market is expected to maintain a rebound at the beginning of next week from a technical perspective, but the market's own capital and sentiment performance are not particularly good. We will mainly observe whether the purchasing power of micro-strategies and the subsequent performance of altcoins can ignite market enthusiasm. There is no particularly emotional data on the chain, so we will understand next week based on the idea of a rebound.

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Written by: Sylvia / Jim / Mat / Cage / WolfDAO

Edited by: Punko / Nora

Thanks to the above partners for their outstanding contributions to this weekly report. This weekly report is published by WolfDAO for learning, research or appreciation only.