BitJungle: MicroStrategy's stock price has plummeted by 30%, indicating that BTC price is about to peak and enter a downward channel

BitJungle predicts Bitcoin's price may peak and enter a downward cycle based on MicroStrategy's stock performance, with three key forecasts:
- MicroStrategy's stock has dropped 30% from its peak, and further declines could significantly impact Bitcoin's price.
- If MicroStrategy can't continue buying Bitcoin, BTC may enter a downtrend near $150,000.
- This scenario could occur in Q2 2025, post-Trump inauguration, when market optimism may fade.
Analysis highlights MicroStrategy's risky business model:
- The company relies on Bitcoin purchases to boost its stock price, creating a feedback loop.
- A downturn in Bitcoin or MicroStrategy's stock could lead to steep losses for investors.
- Reduced fundraising ability may limit Bitcoin purchases, triggering a deeper BTC price drop.
Historical data (2020-2023) shows this risk has materialized before.
BitJungle advises caution despite potential bullish factors like U.S. Bitcoin reserves, emphasizing the market's high volatility.

BitJungle Prediction

Based on the analysis of micro-strategies, BTC price data trends and market logic , BitJungle has the following three predictions:

1. The current MicroStrategy stock price has fallen by about 30% from its historical high . If its stock price falls further, it will have a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin .

2. If MicroStrategy is unable to continue to attract funds and purchase Bitcoin, the price of Bitcoin may enter a downward cycle at a high level close to $150,000 .

3. It is expected that this situation may occur in the second quarter of 2025 , that is, after Trump takes office, by which time all kinds of favorable factors in the market may have been exhausted.

Note: This speculation is based on technical research and market data analysis and is not intended as investment advice.

analyze

Through research on MicroStrategy's business model , BitJungle found that its core strategy is to absorb funds from global users to purchase Bitcoin, and to increase the company's stock price by going long on Bitcoin, thereby creating high profits for users.

However, this model has obvious risks : once the price of Bitcoin or MicroStrategy stock enters a downward cycle, user earnings and assets will face a cliff-like reduction or loss .

The occurrence of user losses will directly affect MicroStrategy's ability to raise funds, thereby limiting its ability to continue purchasing Bitcoin. This situation may lead to a decrease in the inflow of funds into the Bitcoin market, thereby triggering a deep drop in the price of Bitcoin.

This risk has fully manifested itself in a cycle from 2020 to 2023 .

The following is a comparison of specific data:

BitJungle Recommendations

Although this analysis has taken into account favorable factors such as the United States' inclusion of Bitcoin in its national strategic reserves, the digital asset market still has extremely high risks and investment should be cautious.