Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

The US will officially enter Daylight Saving Time on March 8th , with US stock trading starting one hour earlier, and intraday trading hours adjusted to 21:30-4:00 Beijing time. Furthermore, global capital is closely watching tonight's February non-farm payroll report . With the expectation of 59,000 new jobs, the market is holding its breath. PGIM and Amerivet Securities warn that if the employment data exceeds expectations, it could further push up US Treasury yields.

The Middle East geopolitical powder keg has been completely ignited, with an Iranian drone striking the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier. The humanitarian crisis has even affected innocent civilians, with up to 150 schoolchildren forced to evacuate during the conflict. A recent report from the Joint Maritime Information Center indicates that shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has almost completely ground to a halt, with only single-digit numbers of vessels passing through . Only two confirmed commercial passages were observed in the past 24 hours, both involving cargo ships, not oil tankers.

Amid supply disruption fears, Brent crude oil is nearing $90, while WTI crude oil has broken through $82, hitting a new high . JPMorgan Chase urgently warns of storage capacity shortages, with the forced shutdown of Middle Eastern crude oil production potentially reaching 3.3 million barrels per day within the next three days; meanwhile, Saudi Aramco has significantly increased its crude oil prices for Asia by $2.50 per barrel. Faced with soaring oil prices, Trump appears unconcerned, stating, "Let it rise, military action is far more important," and vowing to completely eliminate the Iranian leadership . However, the US Treasury may intervene for the first time ever by shorting oil futures to stabilize prices , while the US has issued a 30-day temporary waiver, easing restrictions on India's purchase of Russian crude oil to alleviate the stalemate of up to 9.5 million barrels of Russian oil stranded.

The AI Sector: Trends and Events

The battle for computing power in the field of artificial intelligence is evolving into a national-level geopolitical game. The US government plans to extend export controls on AI chips globally, requiring all AI accelerator exports from giants such as Nvidia and AMD to be licensed. The Trump administration intends to become the global AI "gatekeeper," firmly grasping core technologies.

Negative policy news poured cold water on the market, causing a collective plunge in chip stocks. Nvidia and AMD fell by 1.9% and 2.3% respectively during the session. Although Nvidia managed a narrow 0.16% rebound at the close, the market's panic was already evident.

The "cash-burning game" of AI infrastructure is intensifying, with traditional giants and crypto mining companies entering the fray. JPMorgan Chase is expected to invest a staggering $20 billion in AI this year , an unprecedented scale in the banking industry; while Oracle , burdened by AI infrastructure spending, is experiencing negative cash flow and is planning large-scale layoffs.

Bitcoin mining companies are also frantically shifting their focus amid the hashrate boom. In February, CleanSpark sold off as much as 97% of its Bitcoin production, cashing out over $36 million, all to fully bet on the expansion of AI and high-performance computing data centers.

Bitcoin price

Bitcoin has fallen 3% from its recent high of $74,000 to around $71,000, pressured by risk aversion and tightening liquidity, and is currently testing the $69,420 support level. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin-to-gold exchange rate has been in a 13-month downtrend since peaking in December 2024.

The hashrate war, coupled with the AI boom, has led to a massive sell-off by miners. Since October of last year, listed mining companies have sold over 15,000 BTC; Cango sold 4,451 BTC in February (60% of its holdings), Bitdeer cleared its inventory in January, Core Scientific planned to sell 2,500 BTC in the first quarter, and CleanSpark sold a staggering 553 BTC (97% of its February production, retaining only 13,363 BTC). As a result, the hashrate price index, which measures miners' profits, has plummeted from $39 three months ago to a historic low of $30.

Currently, MicroStrategy holds 720,737 Bitcoins at an average price of $76,000 , a level that has become a psychological barrier that bulls find difficult to overcome. According to Greeks.live data, BTC options with a notional value of $2.3 billion will expire on March 6th, with the biggest resistance level at $69,000. Bitcoin has stabilized above the $70,000 mark and is expected to challenge $75,000, but the options market shows that selling call options dominates, slowing the upward momentum. However, according to unbias data, the percentage of bullish analysts in the market has risen sharply to 80%.

Bearish view

The bears believe that the current rebound is merely a short-term correction after the selling pressure eases, and the market lacks the momentum for a sustained short squeeze. After breaking through the support level, it will face a deeper correction.

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, pointed out that on-chain data indicates the market is still in a bear market environment, and the recent rise is just a "mitigation rally".
Analyst Murphy emphasized that the MVRV extreme deviation indicator shows the rebound is nearing the top of the $74,000 to $78,000 range and could encounter resistance and fall back at any time.
Trader Roman stated that the lack of trading volume support on the daily chart indicates that the current price action is a pullback to confirm the break below support, and it is bound to move lower in the short term.
Godot's analysis suggests that the market has not yet entered the FOMO phase. Institutional funds are continuously pushing up the strike price of short call options to absorb long liquidity, maintaining the logic of reaping time value amidst volatility.

bullish view

The bulls firmly believe that the short-term pullback is merely a healthy shakeout within a larger uptrend, with strong liquidity support below, and that long-term dollar-cost averaging strategies still hold an absolute advantage.

Analyst CryptoReviewing believes that the short sellers have been completely wiped out, and once the liquidity above $73,000 is cleared, it will directly open the door to higher levels.
TurboBullCapital points out that $63,000 is an excellent demand range, and the price will retest the $75,000 resistance level after a period of consolidation.
Cyril-DeFi suggests that the current movement is more like a reset within a larger uptrend, and as long as the $70,000 support level holds, Bitcoin will continue to climb towards the upper trendline.
Ali Charts emphasizes that $70,685 is a crucial area of dense support; once it stabilizes, the area up to $81,000 will be a clear "vacuum zone."

Ethereum price quotes

Ethereum failed to hold its ground after hitting $2,200 and is currently hovering above $2,000. The derivatives market is rife with activity, with ETH options worth $380 million expiring today, the biggest resistance level being $1,950. Despite weak on-chain fundamentals and a lack of demand for bullish leverage in the derivatives market, continued institutional inflows have led to fierce competition between bulls and bears around the key support level of $2,100, resulting in an overall cautious market sentiment.

Bearish view

Bears point to deteriorating Ethereum fundamentals, arguing that network upgrades have undermined token economics and that a false on-chain boom masks a shrinking real demand.

Short-selling firm Culper Research has announced a high-profile short position on Ethereum, accusing the Fusaka upgrade of raising the gas cap to 45 million to 60 million, which caused gas fees to plummet by 90%, and claiming that 95% of new wallet activity and over 50% of transaction growth were fabricated by dust attacks and poisoning (accounting for 22.5% of total transactions).
Trader UB warned that Ethereum failed to break out of its trading range like other major cryptocurrencies, and if it cannot quickly recover to $2,150, it will be an excellent target for shorting.

bullish view

Bulls remain optimistic about Ethereum's decentralized premium and technical support, believing that the return of institutional funds could trigger a new round of rebound at any time.

CryptoQuant's analyst team points out that the Coinbase premium index has hit a new high, indicating that US buying is returning and seller dominance is waning.
Cyril-DeFi analysis suggests that Ethereum is perfectly retracing to the lower support of its long-term upward channel, an area historically known to be highly prone to strong rebounds.
Trader Crypto Patel emphasized that as long as the macro support level of $1,750 holds, the bulls will remain in control, with an upside target of $2,500 to $2,600.
Man of Bitcoin believes that once the price successfully retraces to the trendline after the breakout, it will directly challenge the Fibonacci extension levels of $2,340 or even $3,400.

Market Dynamics

The altcoin market is experiencing a brutal liquidity crunch, with as many as 38% of altcoins hovering near all-time lows, a situation even more severe than the FTX crash. Under the heavy pressure of macroeconomic uncertainty, market panic and greed are dominated by an amplified risk-averse sentiment, resulting in persistently high liquidation amounts across the entire network.

However, some projects still managed to demonstrate remarkable resilience amidst despair. With rising demand for on-chain trading of traditional assets such as US stocks, gold, and crude oil, trading volume on the Hyperliquid HIP-3 market continued to climb, surpassing $2.2 billion. Daily trading of WTI crude oil contracts increased by 140% month-on-month against the backdrop of recent geopolitical risks.

Furthermore, the integration of traditional finance and the crypto world is accelerating. ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, invested heavily in OKX , pushing its valuation to $25 billion and causing the OKB token to surge 58% to $124 in a short period. Kraken followed suit, launching the xChange engine to support 24/7 trading of tokenized US stocks such as Apple and Tesla.

Key data (as of 13:00 HKT on March 6)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

Bitcoin ETF: -$227.83 million
Ethereum ETF: -$90.94 million
SOL ETF: -$5.23 million
XRP ETF: -$6.16 million
Fear of Greed Index: 18 (Extreme Panic)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, BARD, ETH, SIGN
Sector Performance: Cryptocurrency stocks showed mixed performance, while AI stocks rose nearly 2%.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 93,063 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $227 million, including $104 million in BTC liquidations, $40.33 million in ETH liquidations, and $10.69 million in SOL liquidations.

Today's Outlook

HyperLiquid co-founder: 173,000 HYPE tokens will be unstaking and distributed to team members on March 6.
Coinbase has postponed the launch of Limitless (LMTS) to the early morning of March 7th.
Binance has listed COPPERUSDT perpetual contracts (with copper as the underlying asset).
US February unemployment rate: Expected 4.3%, previous value 4.3% (March 6, 21:30)
US February Non-Farm Payrolls Change (in thousands): Expected 55,000, Previous 130,000 (March 6, 21:30)
With Daylight Saving Time beginning in North America, US stock trading will start one hour earlier (3:00 PM on March 8th).
OP will unlock approximately 19.5 million tokens, worth about $2.4 million, on March 7th.
RED will unlock approximately 40.85 million tokens, worth about $6.2 million, on March 7.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: OKB up 26.7%, Kite up 24.4%, River up 18.2%, Pippin up 8.3%, and Pi Network up 6.7%.

期权交易商押注比特币价格可能在6月底突破历史新高

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