"What really trapped the market was not the price, but the Fed's silent interest rate signal"

  • The market remains stagnant despite Trump's primary victory, primarily due to the Fed maintaining high interest rates (4.33%) despite falling inflation, creating an "invisible wall" of uncertainty.
  • High interest rates freeze lending, reduce risk appetite, and divert funds to safer assets like government bonds, stifling crypto and other risk assets.
  • ETH spot ETFs failed to boost prices, proving the issue isn't ETF effectiveness but the broader high-rate environment.
  • Powell's inaction is framed as preventing inflation, but economic slowdowns, weak employment, and financing struggles suggest a bid to retain control until 2026.
  • Historical trends show bull markets (e.g., 2017 Bitcoin surge, 2020 DeFi summer) begin with the first Fed rate cut, as cheap money reignites liquidity.
  • The current "freeze period" (not a bear market) delays startup funding, crypto launches, and trading volume, but a turnaround is expected when least anticipated.
  • Key takeaway: The Fed's eventual rate cut will be the catalyst for market resurgence—investors should prepare before headlines signal the shift.
Summary

1|High Interest Rates = Market Frozen

At Current Interest Rates:

  • Excessively high capital costs;

  • Lending activity is frozen;

  • Risk appetite has decreased;

  • A large amount of funds would rather sit in government bonds and earn the "risk-free 5%" than touch cryptocurrencies.

Why haven't ETFs triggered a market boom?

It's not because ETFs are ineffective, but because the market lacks a "monetary policy trigger signal."

No one dared to build a large position until the Fed officially shifted its stance.

2|ETH spot ETFs still can't break through resistance levels.

Even after the ETH ETF launched, the price hasn't really taken off.

This isn't a problem with ETH, nor is it that the ETF is ineffective.

It's the high interest rate environment that's holding all risk assets back.

3|The market won't rise when "everyone is ready."

On the contrary, truly significant rallies always quietly begin when the least expected.

When the media begins to abandon coverage and traders begin to doubt,

That's when you should pay special attention.

Because:

The market is a mechanism that accumulates power in silence and then explodes instantly; it's not like a short video that suddenly goes viral.

4|Why isn't Powell taking action?

He claimed to "prevent a second round of inflation."

But the reality is:

  • Economic growth is slowing;

  • Employment data is weakening;

  • Consumption is weak;

  • Businesses are facing difficulties in financing.

This is more like Powell maintaining a state of "absolute control" until the end of his term in 2026.

“What's really trapping the market isn't price, but the Fed's silent interest rate signal.”/></p>
<h4 dir=5|History doesn't lie: Bull markets always start with the "first rate cut."

  • Before the 2017 Bitcoin surge: interest rate cuts.

  • Before the 2020 DeFi summer: interest rate cuts.

  • This isn't metaphysics, it's market mechanics:

Cheap money = liquidity returns = market explosion.

6|This isn't a "bear market"—it's a "freeze period."

We're not in a bear market, we're in a freeze period.

  • High interest rates make it difficult for startups to raise funds;

  • Crypto projects are delaying their launches;

  • Trading volume is shrinking;

  • Investors are waiting for signals.

But remember: Spring always arrives when it's coldest, and the real launch won't be announced in advance.

Conclusion:

The current market quietness doesn't mean death, but rather a period of quiet accumulation of energy, held in check by interest rates.

  • The Fed's rate cut will be a key turning point for all asset classes;

  • The real market won't wait for the media to give you headlines;

  • You should act before the headlines, rather than waiting for the stock to hit the daily limit before chasing higher prices.

📌 Remember:

  • Don't disconnect;

  • The first rate cut = everything turns upside down;

  • When others give up, you should be ready to enter the market.

The market doesn't need a repair, it just needs space.

And this time, you can't miss it.

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Author: BTC_Chopsticks

This article represents the views of PANews columnist and does not represent PANews' position or legal liability.

The article and opinions do not constitute investment advice

Image source: BTC_Chopsticks. Please contact the author for removal if there is infringement.

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