1. Market observation

Keywords: US stocks, ETH, BTC

U.S. stocks closed higher across the board on Tuesday, with technology stocks performing particularly well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, and Nvidia's market value once again surpassed Microsoft, regaining the title of the world's most valuable listed company, with a current market value of $3.45 trillion. Hong Kong stocks with stablecoin concepts continued to explode, with Lianyirong Technology rising 16%, China Everbright Holdings rising more than 14%, and Lianlian Digital rising more than 5%. The surge in China Everbright Holdings' stock price mainly benefited from its joint investment in stablecoin issuer Circle with IDG Capital as early as 2016, becoming its important global strategic shareholder, and Circle's recent application for a U.S. IPO became a catalyst. At the same time, ING economist Knightley predicted that the Federal Reserve may postpone its interest rate cut until December, but may choose to cut interest rates by 50 basis points by then. He believes that the impact of tariffs on inflation will be one-off and will not have a lasting impact on the economy. In addition, the OECD sharply lowered its forecast for U.S. economic growth to 1.6%, and warned that Trump's trade policy is dragging down global economic development. Investors are closely watching the May employment report to be released on Friday to assess economic conditions. In this context, Jeffrey Ding, chief analyst at HashKey, said that 2025 will be a critical node for generative AI to move from technological breakthroughs to widespread application. At present, AI is mainly used in traditional asset management and quantitative trading in the financial field, but in the future it is expected to better adapt to the digital asset market by optimizing market-making strategies. In addition, building AI-enabled Web3 infrastructure, such as smart contract security audits and digital content assetization, will promote the coordinated development of AI and Web3 ecology.

The volatility of the Bitcoin market has intensified, and the short-term trend is fluctuating higher. In terms of the political environment, Poland and South Korea have both elected presidents who support cryptocurrencies - Karol Nawrocki and Lee Jae-myung. Although the market news is mostly positive, the price of Bitcoin has not seen a significant increase. Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, warned that 61 listed companies currently hold a total of 673,800 Bitcoins, accounting for 3.2% of the total supply. If the price of Bitcoin falls below 22% of the average purchase price of these companies, it may trigger forced selling by companies. Referring to the case of Core Scientific selling 7,202 Bitcoins at a price 22% below the cost price in 2022, if Bitcoin falls back below $90,000, about half of the company's holdings may face the risk of loss. This shows that although the wave of corporate holdings has pushed up buying pressure, it has also buried potential selling risks.

Ethereum has been relatively stable, fluctuating around $2,600 for 25 days. The U.S. Ethereum ETF has increased its holdings for 12 consecutive days, and BlackRock has about $4 billion in ETH through the ETF. Analysis shows that Ethereum may usher in a critical turning point and face the choice of going up or down. On-chain data shows that a suspected whale or institution purchased 108,278 Ethereum (about $283 million) through OTC. Galaxy Digital's OTC wallet withdrew 89,000 ETH (about $234 million) from the exchange in the past 12 hours, and then transferred a total of 108,278 ETH to address 0x0b26. Analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that Ethereum is working hard to use $2,500 as a support level and consolidate it as the low point of the macro range of $2,500-4,000. The current trend is similar to the green circle marked position in mid-2021. If successful, Ethereum may enter a new round of range fluctuations.

10x Research pointed out that although Bitcoin continues to hit record highs to attract institutional funds, the altcoin market has stagnated, and the continued unlocking of tokens and the lack of new narratives have become development constraints. Solana tokens have performed poorly recently, fluctuating around $150. Its meme coin platform Pump.fun plans to raise $1 billion through token sales, with a valuation of $4 billion. Although the official has not yet confirmed the specific release time, the platform's social account hinted that it may be launched within two weeks, which may cause the entire Solana ecosystem to face capital outflow pressure. It is worth noting that early this morning, there was news that Trump would launch a branded crypto wallet and trading application to encourage supporters to buy Meme coins. This news caused Magic Eden token ME to rise briefly by 40%. However, the Trump family subsequently denied any connection with the project, causing the ME token to pull back nearly 20% from its high.

2. Key data (as of 12:00 HKT on June 4)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

• Bitcoin: $105,723 (+12.73% YTD), daily spot volume $25.243 billion

• Ethereum: $2,616.39 (-21.69% YTD), with daily spot volume of $14.58 billion

• Fear of corruption index: 57 (neutral)

• Average GAS: BTC: 2.63 sat/vB ETH: 4.36 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 63.1%, ETH 9.6%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: SOPH, XRP, BTC, ME, ETH

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0247

• Sector gains and losses: AI fell 2.1%; Meme fell 1.67%

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 68,138 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$148 million, including BTC liquidation of US$25.52 million, ETH liquidation of US$35.96 million, and SOL liquidation of US$8.75 million

• BTC medium and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($106,908.13), lower channel line ($104,791.13)

• ETH medium and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($2588.05), lower channel line ($2536.80)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price passes through the cost range repeatedly within the range or in the short term, it is a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF flows (as of June 3)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$378 million (ending 3 days of outflows)

• Ethereum ETF: +$109 million (12 consecutive days of net inflows)

4. Today’s Outlook

• Binance Alpha to List Lagrange (LA)

• OKX will delist JUSDT, SWEATUSDT, PUFFERUSDT, MOVRUSDT and SUNDOGUSDT perpetual contracts on June 5

• Cetus Protocol (CETUS) will unlock approximately 8.33 million tokens at 8:00 am on June 4, accounting for 1.15% of the current circulation and worth approximately $1.1 million.

• Eigenlayer (EIGEN) will unlock approximately 1.29 million tokens at 3:00 am on June 4, accounting for 0.42% of the current circulation and worth approximately $1.7 million.

• IOTA (IOTA) will unlock about 8.63 million tokens at 8 am on June 4, accounting for 0.23% of the current circulation and worth about $1.6 million.

• Taiko (TAIKO) will unlock approximately 81.55 million tokens at 8 pm on June 5, accounting for 69.37% of the current circulation, worth approximately US$46.9 million

U.S. ADP employment in May (10,000 people) (20:15, June 4)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 6.2 / Expected: 11

Number of initial jobless claims in the United States as of the week ending May 31 (10,000 people) (20:30, June 5)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 24 / Expected: 23.5

The biggest increases in the top 500 stocks by market value today: 0×0.ai (0×0) increased by 67.69%, Acet (ACT) increased by 28.59%, Alchemist AI (ALCH) increased by 23.39%, Magic Eden (ME) increased by 22.03%, and Animecoin (ANIME) increased by 21.70%.

5. Hot News

• Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of $109 million yesterday, marking the 12th consecutive day of net inflow

• It is suspected that an institution purchased more than 100,000 ETH through OTC and now holds nearly 140,000 ETH

• BlackRock Bitcoin Spot ETF IBIT ranks among the top 25 ETFs in the United States, with assets reaching US$72.4 billion in just 1.4 years since its establishment

• The MELANIA project transferred 150 million tokens and sent 20 million of them to the Wintermute address

• Spanish coffee chain Vanadi plans to invest more than $1.1 billion in Bitcoin to transform into a "Bitcoin-first" company

• Trump family denies involvement in $TRUMP wallet project, Magic Eden responds as official cooperation

• Meitu CEO: At the end of last year, we cleared our cryptocurrency holdings and made a profit of 570 million yuan, 80% of which was distributed as dividends to shareholders

• Binance Alpha to List Lagrange (LA)

• Tether transfers more than 37,000 BTC to Twenty One Capital, worth nearly $4 billion

• Sonic airdrop will start in June, 25% will be released immediately, and the remaining 75% will be unlocked linearly in the form of NFT

• Morph CEO Cecilia Hsueh steps down, replaced by former Binance executive Colin Goltra

• Strategy plans to issue 2.5 million shares of "Stride" preferred stock to increase its Bitcoin holdings

• Insider: Pump.fun plans to raise $1 billion through token sales, with a valuation of $4 billion

• Ethereum co-founder Joe Lubin says he is in talks with sovereign wealth funds about infrastructure cooperation

This article is supported by HashKey , the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted crypto asset fiat currency portal in Asia. HashKey is committed to defining new benchmarks for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform security.