1｜Every round of big peaks is quietly reached in the midst of national enthusiasm

The mood, structure and rhythm are now almost identical.

The only difference is: this time the ATH reached $118,000.

History will not repeat itself, but it will always be strikingly similar:

• 2017: $BTC hit $19K, market excited → plummeted 85% in a few months

• 2021: Another surge, followed by a 400+ day decline

2｜The price has risen, but the main players are "quietly" shipping

• You see retail investors are excited about the highs

• I saw the main force "silently" locking positions and cashing out in batches

• No big news, no announcements - the most common characteristics of major shipments

They know that a large-scale market crash will cause panic, while slowly pushing up the price and then quietly selling the stocks will offer the lowest risk and the greatest return.

3｜Technology is not the only variable, narrative is the real driver

The key words supporting the bull market over the past year are:

• ETFs through

• The rise of L2

• DePIN Narrative Outbreak

But please note: these narratives have long been “priced in.”

Without a new narrative, the market cannot continue.

At present, we have not seen any new narrative that has the effect of "turning the nation around".

4｜The huge increase in debt is a sprint, not a foundation

US national debt surged by $366B in one day.

This is not a sign of long-term growth, but a dangerous reminder that there is no economic support for the continuation of the current trend.

Even if it seems "good news" in the short term, from a macro perspective, this is just the last round of bubble surge.

5. If you don’t have an exit mechanism, you are not a trader, but a punter

Many people say: "I can hold on, I am bullish in the long term."

But remember - holding a position without a strategy is just delaying the realization of losses.

The smartest approach is:

• Sell in batches when the market is hot

• Quietly cash in when others are chasing the rise

• Don't imagine that the market will always rise. The market will not treat you kindly.

✅ Conclusion: It’s not that it’s too early to sell now, but that most people always sell too late

You won’t get a “bull market is over” announcement.

The main players will not tell you that they have quietly left the market.

Your only choice is to make your own judgment based on structure and emotion.

Today you have two choices:

➤ Continue to dream of $200K like retail investors, waiting for "fate to come true"

➤ Or like traders, take profits at the high point in time to make room for the next round of layout

I have chosen to sell.

Are you still waiting?