During this period, the situation in the Middle East has escalated dramatically, and the cryptocurrency market has experienced large fluctuations, but Bitcoin has stubbornly stood above $105,000. Jason, an analyst at the StarEx exchange, believes that amid the gunfire and panic, Bitcoin is as solid as a rock, and the war has failed to shake capital's confidence in the crypto world.
On June 21, 2025, the United States launched an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, escalating the already tense situation in the Middle East. However, despite the missile attack, the sudden increase in geopolitical risks, and the turmoil in global financial markets, Bitcoin fell back slightly and then quickly rebounded to $105,000 again. Capital continues to embrace Bitcoin, and the crypto industry has become more robust in the crisis.
Jason, an analyst at StarEx Exchange, believes that the conflict between Iran and Israel is undoubtedly an extreme test of the real world. From June 12 to 22, global media headlines were constantly updated with explosions, retaliation and diplomatic confrontations, and Bitcoin once fell to $98,286. However, unlike the sell-offs caused by previous geopolitical risk events, this time the market did not panic, the selling pressure was orderly, and funds quickly returned.
Bitcoin is no longer seen as a pure risk asset. Investors have begun to realize that it behaves more like a "non-correlated hedging tool" in systemic uncertainty - neither fluctuating with traditional markets nor blindly following war sentiment. This independence may be the most important quality that global capital values in the current turbulent world.
Looking back at the first half of 2025, five key indicators all show the structural prosperity of the crypto industry - this is not a speculative frenzy, but a solid development of fundamentals.
Monthly mobile wallet users: +23%, with an average of 34.4 million active wallet users in 2025, a significant increase from last year. Mobile wallet infrastructure has improved significantly, with EIP-7702 and embedded wallet products lowering the barrier to use.
Adjusted stablecoin transaction volume: +49%, the monthly transaction volume of stablecoins has exceeded 700 billion US dollars, and the product market fit continues to rise. USDC's parent company Circle successfully went public, and heavyweight companies such as Stripe, Coinbase, Visa, and Meta actively deployed stablecoin payment infrastructure to accelerate its mainstreaming.
ETP net inflow: +28%. Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin and Ethereum-related ETPs have attracted a total net inflow of US$45 billion. The trend of institutional funds entering the market is becoming more and more obvious, and the spot Solana ETF may become the next breakthrough point. The war did not scare off institutions, but instead highlighted their long-term confidence.
The ratio of DEX to CEX transaction volume: +51%. The proportion of DEX/CEX transaction volume increased from 11% to 17%. The DeFi ecosystem continues to expand, which not only increases the freedom of asset acquisition, but also enhances the system's anti-censorship ability.
Looking at the price trend of Bitcoin so far this year, the core variable affecting its fluctuations is not the smoke of war, but the macroeconomic policies of the United States:
On January 20, Trump took office and Bitcoin went up;
From February to May, CPI and PCE data continued to strengthen expectations of rate cuts;
On June 12, the eve of the attacks, PPI data slowed down and the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged but raised its inflation expectations.
Jason, an analyst at StarEx Exchange, believes that what really drives capital in and out of the market is the expectation of monetary policy and the judgment of the liquidity environment, rather than the temporary war news. On June 16, Bitcoin hit a stage high of $108,915, not due to geopolitical tensions, but due to the inflow of $412 million into BlackRock's ETF.
Looking back at several major geopolitical conflicts in the past - the US-Iran confrontation in 2020, the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, and the Middle East escalation in 2025 - Bitcoin has never fallen into a systemic crisis. The BlackRock report pointed out that Bitcoin generally outperformed the S&P 500 and gold in these events, showing its "anti-fragile" characteristics against traditional markets.
This does not mean that Bitcoin will not fall, but the way it falls is more like "liquidation" than "escape." In the short term, traders adjust their positions based on uncertainty; in the medium and long term, ETF funds are continuous and the structure is stable. This capital layout is a variable with more signal value.
Jason, an analyst at StarEx Exchange, believes that the conflict did not cause any technical failure or infrastructure failure, the chain operates normally, smart contracts are executed as usual, and DEX continues to match orders. Compared with the traditional market's fear of "closing" and "liquidity interruption", the crypto world has shown unparalleled resilience.
War should be the black swan that the market fears the most, but Bitcoin has consolidated its role as an alternative asset in the midst of conflict. Its volatility no longer causes panic, but becomes an opportunity for institutions to build positions; its ecology is no longer fragile, but is growing steadily in key indicators.
In the first half of 2025, wars, interest rates, inflation, and regulatory policies took turns, but capital did not flee the crypto world, but continued to increase its investment. This is not a blind belief in the future, but a deep understanding of structural changes. Bitcoin has taken a new trajectory independent of the traditional financial cycle and has become a maturing anchor in an era of global uncertainty.
Bitcoin is still on the road and becoming more and more determined.
