PANews reported on January 16 that according to Jinshi, analysts at crypto asset management company 21Share said that several on-chain indicators show that Bitcoin has not yet reached its cycle peak and there is still room to go higher. However, compared with previous cycles, the launch of the Bitcoin ETF in early 2024 and the increased participation of institutions in the crypto market may also have changed the behavior of some key indicators.

Analysts point out that currently, Bitcoin's MVRV ratio is between 2.5 and 3, indicating that a local high may occur, but it is still far below 7, indicating that the main cycle top has not yet been reached. Only when the price of Bitcoin exceeds $200,000 can its MVRV ratio reach 7. As Bitcoin trades near $100,000, its unrealized net profit and loss has been between 0.5 and 0.75, indicating a potential sell-off opportunity. However, analysts say that only when the unrealized net profit and loss reaches 0.75 can it indicate a mood of excitement or greed, indicating that the market has peaked.

When Bitcoin hit an all-time high in mid-December last year, the sell-side risk ratio for long-term Bitcoin holders (a measure of the extent of investor profit-taking compared to previous market cycles) reached about 0.4%. On-chain analysts tend to believe that the market will enter an overheated state when the ratio approaches or exceeds 0.8%.