Dead cat bounce or bull market start? Key signals in one article

The crypto market's recent rebound has sparked debate on whether it's a "dead cat bounce" or the start of a bull market. Here are key signals to watch:

  • Public FOMO missing: No widespread hype (e.g., barbers/taxi drivers discussing crypto, TikTok "get rich quick" tutorials), indicating the market hasn't peaked yet.
  • Fear & Greed Index at 70: Not yet in the extreme greed zone (90+), suggesting short-term room for growth.
  • Altseason index below 50: Altcoins haven't entered a frenzy, unlike bull market peaks where even abandoned projects surge.
  • Limited media coverage: No mainstream headlines or celebrity endorsements (e.g., CNN, NFTs on late-night shows), unlike the 2021 bubble.
  • Positive news still drives prices: Market reacts to good news (e.g., ETFs), unlike tops where gains stall despite positive developments.
  • No surge in dead projects: Scam-like pumps of abandoned coins aren't widespread yet.
  • Social media remains practical: Few "profit porn" posts (Lambos, Rolexes), unlike retail-investor mania phases.
  • No mass job-quitting for crypto trading: Most participants are still cautious, not all-in.
  • Predictions stay conservative: No extreme price targets (e.g., $1M BTC) dominating discussions.
  • Leverage healthy: Perpetual funding rates and open interest aren't excessively high.
  • No top patterns: Prices show upward momentum without stagnation or lower highs.

Conclusion: Current indicators suggest the rebound isn't yet a bull market peak. Watch for FOMO, media hype, and irrational surges as exit signals. Taking partial profits and avoiding emotional trades is advised. Historical patterns hint at risks, but preparation beats perfect timing.

Summary

In the past few weeks, the crypto market has rebounded strongly, sparking heated debate in the market - is this a "dead cat bounce" or a prelude to the next bull run?

Although many currencies have seen amazing gains, many key indicators have not yet really started. In order to avoid emotional trading, I have compiled all the core on-chain and off-chain indicators to help you use data to see the true state of the market and grasp the signs before the next all-time high ( ATH ).

Dead cat bounce or bull market start? Key signals in one article

1. Without “all-people FOMO”, there is no real top

  • The real market peak is not how much it rises, but who is buying:

  • Your barber, relatives, and taxi drivers all start talking about whether they should buy some coins.

  • TikTok is full of tutorials on “How I increased my income 100 times with SHIBA 2.0”

  • When the whole network is worried about missing out, you should be alert to the coming head

✅ Current situation: At present, public attention is still relatively low, and there is still a distance to the FOMO of the whole people.

2. Fear & Greed has not peaked yet

  • Tops usually last for weeks at extreme greed (90 points and above)

  • Currently, there is only a short surge, and the overall level is still around 70

  • 70 points is not the top, 90+ is a danger signal

✅ Current situation: The market has not yet entered the extreme greed zone and there is still room in the short term.

Dead cat bounce or bull market start? Key signals in one article

3. Altseason indicator is still in neutral zone

  • At the end of the real bull market, altcoins took off in full swing, and even old coins without development teams soared

  • Altseason Index usually breaks above 75 and is currently below 50

✅ Current situation: Altcoins have not yet fully exploded and have not yet entered a frenzy period.

Dead cat bounce or bull market start? Key signals in one article

4. Mainstream media has not yet “caught up”

  • You haven’t seen cryptocurrency on CNN headlines yet

  • Celebrities Didn’t Return to Late Night Shows to Promote NFTs

  • 2021 bull market peak: Matt Damon said "the brave get rich", now there is no sound

✅ Current situation: The media has not yet intervened and it is still far from the bubble stage.

Dead cat bounce or bull market start? Key signals in one article

5. “No increase in prices due to favorable conditions” is a dangerous signal, and there is still a reaction

  • When the market reaches the real top, it will no longer pay for the good news.

  • ETF approved? Sideways

  • Major cooperation? Instead, it fell

✅ Current situation: The market still responds positively to positive news and buying has not yet dried up.

6. Projects with no development and no community are starting to surge?

  • If you see that the number of dead projects in 2018 suddenly skyrocketed by hundreds of times

  • That is not an opportunity, it is the dealer's delivery channel

✅ Current situation: Such signs are not yet widespread and the market remains selective.

7. Has a “show off wealth trend” started on Twitter?

  • If your homepage is flooded with pictures of Lambo, Rolex, and 10x profits

  • This is often a precursor to retail investors' crazy buying

✅ Current situation: At present, the content is still mostly practical and has not yet entered the "profit porn" stage.

8. Are some people starting to quit their jobs and become full-time cryptocurrency traders?

  • At the end of the bull market, there will be a large number of people who "just made $7K and quit their job all in"

  • When people believe this is a "permanent money-making opportunity", the market usually won't go far.

✅ Current situation: Most people are still on the sidelines or making small investments, and there is no large-scale career mobility.

9. The market is flooded with “sky-high predictions”?

  • Predictions such as $1M BTC, $500 LINK, and $100K SOL are emerging one after another

  • No one talks about “downside risk” anymore, but the biggest risk itself

✅ Current situation: Market forecasts remain conservative and the mainstream remains divided.

10. Leverage and perpetuals have not seen crazy accumulation

  • At the real top, the financing rate is extremely positive and OI soars

  • Everyone is chasing the rise and opening long positions, no one is thinking about taking profits

✅ Current situation: Leverage data is not yet extreme and remains in a healthy rising structure.

11. “The top is not obvious, but there are always signs”

  • The real top always looks like a breakthrough, but then it starts to go sideways, oscillate repeatedly and build a falling structure

  • You will start to see price stagnation, lower highs, and indifference to positive news.

✅ Current situation: The current market is still in the "confidence rising period" and no typical top pattern has been seen.

Dead cat bounce or bull market start? Key signals in one article

Conclusion: Winning lies in prediction, not in buying at high points

The market will not tell you "this is the top", but it will give you enough signs. History will not simply repeat itself, but it will rhyme.

✅ If you see FOMO among the whole people, media hype, skyrocketing prices of scrapped coins, and ineffective benefits... then it's time to withdraw

✅ At this moment, if you have made a profit, it is a smart choice to start taking profits in batches and allocating stablecoins

✅ Don’t think about selling at the highest point. Those who can keep their profits are the ultimate winners.

I ignored the signals at the peak of the bull market in 2021 and lost 70% of my net worth. This time, I will prepare ahead of time, and I suggest you do the same.

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Author: BTC_Chopsticks

This article represents the views of PANews columnist and does not represent PANews' position or legal liability.

The article and opinions do not constitute investment advice

Image source: BTC_Chopsticks. Please contact the author for removal if there is infringement.

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