Bitcoin has gained momentum again, reaching $120,000, setting a new all-time high. ETFs and listed company treasuries have stepped up their efforts to enter the cryptocurrency market. Ethereum has also reversed its downward trend and risen strongly. Jason, an analyst at StarEx Exchange, believes that this round of rise has not only led to a general rise in the entire crypto market, but also reflects the "independent market" of Bitcoin as an emerging macro asset, and $150,000 can be expected this year.
Why did Bitcoin suddenly accelerate? The answer is not just a simple catalyst, but the result of a series of structural positive factors. From the Fed's policy shift, to the fermentation of fiscal risks, to the tokenization and stablecoin legislation to promote the institutionalization of crypto finance, Bitcoin is riding on multiple favorable trends and aiming for $150,000.
StarEx exchange analyst Jason believes there are five core positive factors that will help BTC accelerate upward
1. Expectations of rate cuts rise, and risk assets are repriced
The minutes of the Fed's June meeting, which were recently released, revealed significant policy differences: although the Fed remained on hold in the short term, "most members believed that it was appropriate to cut interest rates this year" became the core signal of market attention. This means that the Fed may start a rate cut cycle within the year, releasing liquidity dividends for risky assets.
Historical experience shows that Bitcoin is extremely sensitive to changes in liquidity cycles, and the strengthening of easing expectations is usually a prelude to price increases. Investors are actively planning "interest rate cut transactions", and Bitcoin, as a "high beta + non-sovereign" asset, has once again become a safe haven for funds.
2. The "big and beautiful" tax reform bill has caused fiscal concerns, and the demand for gold and BTC has strengthened simultaneously
On July 4, Trump signed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which is expected to add $3 to $5 trillion in fiscal deficits over the next decade. Although there will be no technical default in the short term, the challenges to fiscal sustainability have further exacerbated the shaken confidence in the traditional financial system. The spillover effect of debt risk is driving funds to "non-sovereign value anchors". Gold and Bitcoin, as dual safe-haven assets, have gone hand in hand and become important tools to combat the risk of fiat currency depreciation.
3. Cryptocurrency becomes a "risk-free asset" to hedge against tariffs and geopolitical risks
Trump delayed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" and issued tariff letters to 22 countries, triggering a new round of global trade tensions. However, the U.S. stock market and the crypto market quickly strengthened, reflecting the market's high adaptability to uncertainty.
Cryptocurrency is increasingly seen as an alternative safe-haven tool that does not rely on governments and central banks. Especially when the traditional financial system is shaken, the "monetary neutrality" value of Bitcoin is gradually accepted by mainstream investors.
4. The implementation of securities tokenization will open up a new paradigm of on-chain finance
The SEC recently issued guidance on the tokenization of securities, emphasizing that tokenization is expected to improve capital efficiency. Robinhood and Kraken have launched tokenized stock trading on Arbitrum and Solana respectively, indicating that crypto technology is deeply embedded in the mainstream financial system. The chairman of the SEC clearly stated that "regulation is no longer a crackdown, but a guide to innovation", which means that the US regulatory authorities have turned to embrace blockchain finance, which provides institutional support for the price center of Bitcoin.
5. ETFs and "crypto treasury companies" drive the market, and institutional funds enter the market in large numbers
MicroStrategy and other pioneering companies have increased their holdings of Bitcoin again, and even spawned "crypto treasury companies" around theme coins such as Solana and XRP. What this reflects is the structural and institutionalized investment trend. ETFs continue to receive net subscriptions, rather than the speculative drive that relied on retail investors in the early cycle. The addition of structural funds has significantly enhanced the market's chip stability and valuation center, driving the Bitcoin market to evolve into a mature "gold-like" asset.
Currently, not only Bitcoin is strong, but also technology assets such as the Nasdaq Index and Nvidia have frequently hit new highs. Macro liquidity is showing signs of recovery, and the demand for 10-year US Treasury auctions is strong and interest rates are stabilizing. Risk appetite in the global market is recovering, and cryptocurrencies may once again become the leading force.
Jason, an analyst at StarEx Exchange, pointed out that the continuous net inflow of ETF funds and the increase in institutional adoption constitute the core logic of the "structural bull market". Most current holders are in a state of floating profit, and the unrealized profit ratio has not yet entered an extreme range, which means that there is still room for prices to rise. The M2 money supply has expanded again since the beginning of the year. Historical data shows that this is highly correlated with the price of Bitcoin. Some liquidity will inevitably enter the digital asset field. Ethereum broke through the $3,000 mark, indirectly boosting the overall market sentiment.
The logic of Bitcoin aiming at $150,000 may no longer be just technical and financial logic, but also a concrete manifestation of the change in the macro-monetary system. In 2025, the US national debt exceeded 36 trillion US dollars, accounting for more than 124% of GDP. With high fiscal pressure, the Federal Reserve was forced to adjust its supervision and accounting standards and release liquidity through means such as bond repurchases and gold revaluation.
Jason, an analyst at StarEx Exchange, believes that the future hegemony of the US dollar will be partially maintained by the on-chain form. Stablecoins will become the product of the "technological iteration" of the US dollar system, while Bitcoin will gain greater legitimacy as a "non-sovereign alternative currency." While the digitalization of the US dollar is accelerating, global assets are being repriced. Stablecoins have magnified the speed and depth of the US dollar in global circulation, while also opening up a larger valuation anchor for Bitcoin. Crypto assets are no longer a product of marginal finance, but a "new coordinate" in the evolution of the global monetary system.
If the price of Bitcoin was mainly determined by supply, demand and market sentiment in the past, then Bitcoin has now become an anchor asset in the global macro game. Bitcoin is a new monetary system that does not rely on national credit. If the macro environment continues the current trend, the US fiscal and monetary policies continue to be loose, and the stablecoin and tokenized financial ecosystem continue to prosper, it will not only be possible but also a high probability event for Bitcoin to hit $150,000 this year.
