In the past two years, both the traditional financial market and the crypto market have undergone structural changes. The macro background is turbulent, policy games are frequent, and black swans are hovering in the air. The crypto market is also gradually diverging under this macro trend. Jason, an analyst at StarEx Exchange, believes that we are witnessing the advent of a "new era", an era where stocks no longer rise and fall together, but have different destinies. Standing at such a fork in the road, every investor needs to reposition themselves and find the most suitable operation method for themselves.
1. Macroeconomic background: tightening on the surface, but actually pumping money in, the market is distorted
Since 2022, the Federal Reserve has continued to raise interest rates and shrink its balance sheet, and its monetary policy is in a tightening cycle. But surprisingly, the U.S. Treasury Department "went against the wind" and issued a large amount of bonds for financing, which ultimately pushed the U.S. M2 money supply and money fund scale to record highs. Jason, an analyst at StarEx Exchange, believes that this twisted combination of punches has brought about significant differentiation:
Institutions obtained liquidity, pushing up assets such as gold, top U.S. stocks and Bitcoin; ordinary people and small and medium-sized enterprises had their liquidity withdrawn, and small-cap stocks, altcoins and even startups experienced a systemic downturn; the size of U.S. debt surged, and the pressure to repay principal and interest in the future continued to rise, exacerbating the hidden dangers of the U.S. debt crisis; expectations of economic recession are always hovering in the sky and have never been far away.
This structural distortion also directly affects the evolutionary logic of the encryption market.
2. The financial operation of "putting out fires everywhere" is giving rise to a long-term illusion
In recent years, the market has experienced too many "crisis resolutions": Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in 2023, the Federal Reserve provided emergency assistance, and the banking system was temporarily safe; U.S. Treasury bonds matured, and the Treasury Department induced funds to take over by raising interest rates; the stock and bond markets were on the verge of collapse, and Trump's "kind tone" could temporarily stabilize emotions.
Every time the sky is about to fall, the government can always "save it". Over time, the market has become accustomed to it: if the price drops too much, buy at the bottom, because it will always go back up. But if the story of the boy who cried wolf is repeated, there will always be one time when it is true. Jason, an analyst at StarEx Exchange, believes that the current political and financial ecology of the United States is already exhausted. Although the "constant firefighting" model can continue for a while, it will eventually be unable to continue. And the last straw that breaks the camel's back is likely to be an economic recession.
3. Crypto market structure: Intensified differentiation and logical reconstruction
In this context, the structure of the crypto market is being restructured. We can summarize the current situation in one sentence: altcoins are becoming A-shares, Bitcoin is becoming gold, SOL is becoming a casino, and Ethereum is becoming technology.
It is no longer feasible for altcoins to rely on hype concepts. In the past few years, altcoins have sprung up like mushrooms after rain, but most projects quickly went the path of "unbanning-shipping-plunge" after being issued at high valuations. It is becoming more and more like those pseudo-growth stocks in A-shares that "fall" after telling stories. Jason, an analyst at StarEx Exchange, believes that the only way out for altcoins in the future is "productization". For example: Hype has become the leader in the DEX contract field, and has doubled dozens of times against the trend in a weak market; Virtual has made an AI Agent product, which has increased hundreds of times after it was actually launched. Practical value, product progress and user growth will determine the future of altcoins.
Bitcoin is becoming "digital gold" and is gradually being incorporated into the asset allocation of traditional institutions. Its fluctuations are increasingly affected by the macro environment: rising inflation expectations, institutions increasing their holdings of Bitcoin for hedging; rising interest rates, short-term corrections in Bitcoin; and rising government money printing/fiscal risks, which increases the safe-haven value of Bitcoin.
Suitable for investors with strong mid- to long-term asset allocation ideas and a keen macro perspective.
SOL: Casino-like, there are always people in the gambler's paradise, the Solana ecosystem is still hot, although it fluctuates violently, it is full of vitality. The PVP (player vs. player) market is always lively, even if the market is sluggish, the projects and speculators on the Solana chain are still active.
Instead of gambling on projects, it is better to focus on "tool-type assets", such as: Raydium (RAY): a long-established DEX; Jupiter (JUP): the largest aggregator with a good trading experience; Jito (JTO): the core of the re-staking track.
Ethereum: Technologically advanced, moving towards RWA and integrating with institutions, Ethereum is slowly getting rid of the label of "cryptocurrency chain" and moving towards RWA (real assets on the chain) and Web3 infrastructure.
ETFs have started to see capital inflows; large institutions (such as BlackRock and JPMorgan Chase) have deployed RWAs; stablecoins and tokenized treasury products on Ethereum have gradually been implemented; mainstream DeFi protocols such as Uniswap and Aave will directly benefit.
This is a slow but potentially huge long-term technology track, suitable for investors who are patient and optimistic about the integration of blockchain and the real economy.
Jason, an analyst at StarEx Exchange, believes that we have stepped out of the crypto bull market era of "buy with your eyes closed and fly together". In the current market, different assets follow different logics, and different people are suitable for different tracks.
Not good at speculation? You can consider investing in Bitcoin. Do you like to study trend products? You can carefully select productized altcoins. Do you have time to tinker and understand the market rhythm? You can participate in the SOL ecosystem. Are you optimistic about the combination of blockchain and traditional assets in the long term? You can bet on Ethereum and RWA.
It's not the market that has changed, it's the rules of the game that have changed. What we need to do is to find a way of playing that suits us, rather than challenging the market's temper.
