PANews reported on March 24 that QCP Capital, a Singapore-based crypto investment agency, said that the crypto market rebounded modestly over the weekend, with BTC and ETH breaking through $85,000 and $2,000, respectively. The recovery appears to be led by the stock market, with stock futures rebounding strongly. Although recession concerns continue, Powell's speech at last week's FOMC meeting, though measured, helped ease investor nervousness. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has increased from 32% last week to 45% this week (49% neutral), reflecting a general easing of risk aversion.

A notable highlight was spot BTC ETF inflows, which surged last week to buy 8,775 BTC (equivalent to $744 million). This marks a sharp reversal after weeks of net outflows and signals early signs of liquidity flowing back into crypto markets. With perpetual open interest still subdued and funding rates flat, the rally appears to be driven by true spot demand rather than leverage, a key distinction as leverage-driven moves tend to unwind abruptly at liquidation.

However, despite renewed ETF momentum and today’s follow-through rebound, we remain cautious about the prospects for a sustained breakout higher. The upcoming tariff escalation, which is set to be implemented on April 2, could put pressure on risk assets again. Meanwhile, the options market reflects a more neutral wait-and-see attitude, with implied volatility trending lower and risk reversals flattening across all maturities, in stark contrast to the more bearish trend observed a week ago.

It will be important to watch whether this week’s recovery mirrors last Monday’s price action, when the cryptocurrency rallied on Sunday only to pull back sharply within 48 hours.