qinbafrank
Investor in AI、Crypto、TMT，跟踪最前沿科技趋势、野生宏观政经观察、研究全球资本流动性、周期趋势投资。记录个人学习和思考，经常出错常态掉坑爬坑。
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From the Q2 2026 Earnings Season of US and A-Shares, See What Really Happened with Agents
The year of financial validation for Agents has arrived. US stocks ServiceNow, Salesforce, Workday, and Palantir earnings reveal an explosion in AI revenue. A-shares Kingsoft Office and Servyou accelerate to catch up. The four-layer structure of the industry chain emerges. Investment metrics shift from user numbers to ARR and ACV.
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Where is the next big scenario similar to Coding for AI? Discussing four time gaps in AI development
After Coding, where is the next killer AI application? Non-Coding Agents are taking over, with customer service, finance, and IT operations being the closest to the next stop. Microsoft's financial report reveals three stages of enterprise AI diffusion, and the time gap between capital expenditure and cash flow becomes the core contradiction.
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The second half after AI computing power: Why is 'optical interconnect' the core battlefield of the future?
AI data center optical interconnect demand surges, NVIDIA CPO officially mass-produced, indium phosphide laser shortage becomes new bottleneck, optical module sector faces expectation gap and catalyst window.
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Losing the 'Anchor': Warsh's Minimalist Communication Is Forcing the Market to Price Itself
Under Warsh's new framework, the bond market prices a 40% chance of surprise rate hikes, with inflation and geopolitical risks pushing up tail premiums. How will Thursday's pre-dawn rate decision affect the market?
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Korean Stocks from Data: Currently in High-Volatility Repeated Deleveraging Phase, Not 'Final Clearance'
Korean stocks opened high and closed low. Foreign investors continued buying semiconductor leaders, while retail investors significantly reduced leveraged long ETFs. The forced liquidation ratio rose to 5.7%. Deleveraging repeated without a final clearance, and high volatility continued.
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How This Wave of Deleveraging in Korean Stocks Happened
Since June 23, the KOSPI plummeted over 25%. Leveraged ETFs on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix acted as amplifiers, and retail investors' margin buying to catch the bottom instead triggered a chain of forced liquidations. Under the combination of regulatory rate hikes and leverage restrictions, deleveraging has entered an institutionalized phase.
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AI adoption enters the engineering era, new opportunities and challenges for mega CSPs, a new system of criteria for evaluating AI commercialization progress
Enterprises no longer pursue a single strongest model, but instead build "composite AI systems" composed of multiple models and modules. Against this backdrop, mega cloud service providers (CSPs) are evolving into "AI operating systems", capturing full-stack value by controlling data, security, routing, and computing power.
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What was said at Nvidia's closed-door roadshow? What rumors were addressed?
Nvidia's closed-door roadshow denied product delays, Rubin Ultra to ship next year, ASIC competition does not change GPU dominance, revenue growth accelerates, Morgan Stanley raises target price to $288.
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Kevin Warsh is quietly reshaping the Federal Reserve through five working groups
Kevin Warsh’s ‘top-level design’ approach resembles the Chinese model.
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How far has deleveraging come? Five core signals for identifying the semiconductor bottom
Is compressive deleveraging drawing to a close? In-depth analysis of the essence of the semiconductor sector adjustment, when high-valuation growth stocks will bottom out, and key signals that have emerged.
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Goldman Sachs U.S. Semiconductor Q2 Outlook: Fundamentals Are Good, but the Market's "Fault Tolerance" Has Decreased
Goldman Sachs expects that computing power, memory, equipment, packaging and testing, testing, and some analog chains still have fundamental upward revisions, but SOX has significantly outperformed in Q2, and the market's optimistic expectations for AI capex have been priced in.
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July US Stock Market Scenario: AI Trading Enters a 'Gear Shift Period', from Aggregate Frenzy to ROI Test
The S&P 500 is likely to fluctuate at high levels, while the Nasdaq and semiconductors experience significantly amplified volatility. The real watershed is the June CPI on July 14, followed by the start of Q2 earnings reports and the FOMC meeting at the end of the month.
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Micron Earnings Preview: What Are the Key Points to Watch?
Micron earnings preview: HBM4 mass production, SCA long-term agreements lock in profits, can gross margin stay above 80%? AI storage key highlights: data center NAND doubling growth, DDR5 tight supply supports performance.
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qinbaFrank: AI Computing Power Wave Review and Outlook — From Nvidia's Three Major Debates to Optical Interconnects and SpaceX IPO, How Is Capital Rotating?
The complete path of the AI market from 2023 to the present: from the market's three major debates on AI, to how penetration rate dividends determine commercialization efficiency, and now to the critical stage of shifting from hardware scarcity to commercialization validation.
qinbafrank2 authors
After SpaceX goes public, "Mag7" may become history, with three new combinations emerging: FAB10, AI Big10, and MANGOS.
When the original Mag7 could no longer cover the most cutting-edge technology companies, a new term was born.
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