qinbafrank
Investor in AI、Crypto、TMT，跟踪最前沿科技趋势、野生宏观政经观察、研究全球资本流动性、周期趋势投资。记录个人学习和思考，经常出错常态掉坑爬坑。
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The second half after AI computing power: Why is 'optical interconnect' the core battlefield of the future?
AI data center optical interconnect demand surges, NVIDIA CPO officially mass-produced, indium phosphide laser shortage becomes new bottleneck, optical module sector faces expectation gap and catalyst window.
qinbafrank
Losing the 'Anchor': Warsh's Minimalist Communication Is Forcing the Market to Price Itself
Under Warsh's new framework, the bond market prices a 40% chance of surprise rate hikes, with inflation and geopolitical risks pushing up tail premiums. How will Thursday's pre-dawn rate decision affect the market?
qinbafrank
Korean Stocks from Data: Currently in High-Volatility Repeated Deleveraging Phase, Not 'Final Clearance'
Korean stocks opened high and closed low. Foreign investors continued buying semiconductor leaders, while retail investors significantly reduced leveraged long ETFs. The forced liquidation ratio rose to 5.7%. Deleveraging repeated without a final clearance, and high volatility continued.
qinbafrank
How This Wave of Deleveraging in Korean Stocks Happened
Since June 23, the KOSPI plummeted over 25%. Leveraged ETFs on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix acted as amplifiers, and retail investors' margin buying to catch the bottom instead triggered a chain of forced liquidations. Under the combination of regulatory rate hikes and leverage restrictions, deleveraging has entered an institutionalized phase.
qinbafrank
AI adoption enters the engineering era, new opportunities and challenges for mega CSPs, a new system of criteria for evaluating AI commercialization progress
Enterprises no longer pursue a single strongest model, but instead build "composite AI systems" composed of multiple models and modules. Against this backdrop, mega cloud service providers (CSPs) are evolving into "AI operating systems", capturing full-stack value by controlling data, security, routing, and computing power.
qinbafrank
What was said at Nvidia's closed-door roadshow? What rumors were addressed?
Nvidia's closed-door roadshow denied product delays, Rubin Ultra to ship next year, ASIC competition does not change GPU dominance, revenue growth accelerates, Morgan Stanley raises target price to $288.
qinbafrank
Kevin Warsh is quietly reshaping the Federal Reserve through five working groups
Kevin Warsh’s ‘top-level design’ approach resembles the Chinese model.
qinbafrank
How far has deleveraging come? Five core signals for identifying the semiconductor bottom
Is compressive deleveraging drawing to a close? In-depth analysis of the essence of the semiconductor sector adjustment, when high-valuation growth stocks will bottom out, and key signals that have emerged.
qinbafrank
Goldman Sachs U.S. Semiconductor Q2 Outlook: Fundamentals Are Good, but the Market's "Fault Tolerance" Has Decreased
Goldman Sachs expects that computing power, memory, equipment, packaging and testing, testing, and some analog chains still have fundamental upward revisions, but SOX has significantly outperformed in Q2, and the market's optimistic expectations for AI capex have been priced in.
qinbafrank
July US Stock Market Scenario: AI Trading Enters a 'Gear Shift Period', from Aggregate Frenzy to ROI Test
The S&P 500 is likely to fluctuate at high levels, while the Nasdaq and semiconductors experience significantly amplified volatility. The real watershed is the June CPI on July 14, followed by the start of Q2 earnings reports and the FOMC meeting at the end of the month.
qinbafrank
Micron Earnings Preview: What Are the Key Points to Watch?
Micron earnings preview: HBM4 mass production, SCA long-term agreements lock in profits, can gross margin stay above 80%? AI storage key highlights: data center NAND doubling growth, DDR5 tight supply supports performance.
qinbafrank
qinbaFrank: AI Computing Power Wave Review and Outlook — From Nvidia's Three Major Debates to Optical Interconnects and SpaceX IPO, How Is Capital Rotating?
The complete path of the AI market from 2023 to the present: from the market's three major debates on AI, to how penetration rate dividends determine commercialization efficiency, and now to the critical stage of shifting from hardware scarcity to commercialization validation.
qinbafrank2 authors
After SpaceX goes public, "Mag7" may become history, with three new combinations emerging: FAB10, AI Big10, and MANGOS.
When the original Mag7 could no longer cover the most cutting-edge technology companies, a new term was born.
qinbafrank
Deleveraging in tech stocks is underway: Instead of rushing to buy the dip, it's better to wait for the overall market to stabilize first.
To predict a reversal, we should first examine macroeconomic signals.
qinbafrank
US Stock Market Correction Warning: What are the Real Risks of AI? A Comprehensive Analysis of New Fund Flows in Software Stocks, Optical Interconnects, SpaceX, and Bitcoin
The inflection point for AI commercialization has arrived, with Nvidia and the optical interconnect sector experiencing explosive growth. How should investors position themselves in US stocks and cryptocurrencies amidst the reshaping of macro liquidity? Top investor Frank breaks down the cross-market investment framework.
168X2 authors
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