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Anthropic Pre-IPO Contract Arbitrage Retrospective: Key Event Timeline and Position Micro-Management
Binance converts at total shares outstanding while HL uses fully diluted shares; the spread narrowed from about 30% to about 2% over two weeks, and all positions were closed on the morning of 11-11. The article details the route-switch and add-position decision points, and admits that staying one-sided short Binance after the prospectus was a wrong call that ended in a stop-loss.