4Alpha Research
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The current market is stuck in the dilemma of "disordered expectations": tariff policies repeatedly disturb market pricing, and the split between soft and hard economic data exacerbates the concerns of stagflation. The Fed's neutral and hawkish stance resonates with fiscal pressure, and the structural mismatch of the interest rate curve may trigger a double kill of credit assets. It is recommended to maintain a defensive position, focus on volatility repricing opportunities, and be wary of fundamental risk exposure under false data.
4Alpha Research2025-04-23 08:04
The U.S. market suffered a triple blow in stocks, bonds and currencies. The U.S. Treasury yield soared to 4.47%, the U.S. dollar index fell below 100, and gold broke through $3,200. The risk of stagflation emerged, the liquidity crisis and the spiral of selling U.S. Treasury bonds intensified, and the pressure of nearly 9 trillion debt maturing in 2025 was added. The market turned to defensive logic and safe-haven assets diverged.
4Alpha Research2025-04-15 06:30
This week, the Trump administration launched an unexpected reciprocal tariff policy, the US stock market recorded its biggest drop in 2020, and commodities collapsed. The US bond yield plunged, pricing in a recession, and the non-farm data concealed concerns about rising unemployment. China-EU countermeasures may prolong the game cycle, and Bitcoin has become a liquidity-sensitive safe-haven target. In the period of policy chaos, defense is the best, focusing on next week's CPI data.
4Alpha Research2025-04-07 11:08
The risk of stagflation in the United States is rising: Q1 GDP is expected to fall by 1.8%, 290 of the 387 metropolitan areas have rising unemployment rates, and PCE inflation stickiness is prominent. Market risk aversion is dominant, gold is rising/US stocks and cryptocurrencies are under pressure, and the widening of credit spreads has exacerbated recession concerns. The April 2 reciprocal tariff decision may become a short-term weather vane. It is recommended to allocate gold and US bonds to hedge against volatility, and sell off technology and crypto assets at highs. Key observations: non-agricultural data and tariff impact.
4Alpha Research2025-04-01 10:56
Funding rate arbitrage strategy is one of the more stable income strategies in the crypto market and is favored by institutions. However, for ordinary investors, this strategy is extremely difficult to implement and is often "visible but not achievable". This article will deeply analyze the basic principles and specific methods of funding rate arbitrage, as well as the core competitiveness of institutions in this field, to help readers fully understand its essence and application.
4Alpha Research2025-03-28 04:00
[Macro Express] The Fed's "data dependence" stabilizes expectations, and gold breaks through $3,000! Next week's reciprocal tariffs may cause trade turmoil, and the market is cautiously defensive and waiting for opportunities to deploy. Inflation game + liquidity improvement, pay attention to core PCE data, and the strategy should be "both defensive and offensive".
4Alpha Research2025-03-25 07:55
Market adjustment continues, defensive assets become safe havens! Gold breaks new highs, BTC still has value in the long term, and the widening credit spreads sound the alarm. Next week, focus on the Fed meeting, interest rate cut expectations and QT suspension may become key signals of turning points!
4Alpha Research2025-03-18 06:59
The breakout of US stocks triggered a systematic sell-off, and the differentiation of non-farm employment showed pressure on the demand side. The Fed reiterated its inflation anchor target, and the policy balance tilted towards interest rate cuts. The impact of tariffs and economic resilience still need to be verified by data. It is recommended to flexibly position in response to CPI/PPI guidance and capture the recession/recovery trading switching window.
4Alpha Research2025-03-11 05:23
The market is trapped in the game of recession expectations: the U.S. Treasury yield inversion is a warning, funds are pouring into government bonds for risk aversion, and U.S. stocks and crypto assets are under pressure. Next week's non-farm data may set the tone for the intensity of the "recession trade", and defense is the main focus in volatility. In the long term, we are still optimistic about the innovation potential of the crypto track, and short-term fluctuations will not change the upward trend
4Alpha Research2025-03-04 07:07
Bybit and Infini, two major platforms, have been attacked by hackers one after another. The isolation mechanism of cold and hot wallets and the loopholes in permission management have become fatal shortcomings. Although the market has seen a panic withdrawal of coins, the entry of $4 billion of institutional funds against the trend has confirmed the resilience of the industry. Investors urgently need to build an anti-fragile system, and at the same time pay attention to regulatory variables such as the EU Digital Asset Framework and the US FBI's anti-money laundering enforcement, so as to capture the opportunities of high-quality assets that have been wrongly killed during the reconstruction of security standards.
4Alpha Research2025-03-03 06:52
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