Trading Moment: Following the AI "ghost story," Nvidia's earnings report is approaching; BTC finds support at 64,000.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

A profound structural adjustment is underway. Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warns that the world is in a "major cycle" adjustment phase, and investors must closely monitor four core drivers: growth, inflation, risk premiums, and discount rates. He also suggests broad diversification to mitigate potential debt crises and currency devaluation risks. On Monday, a report titled "The Global Smart Crisis of 2028," released by Citrini Research founder James van Geelen, triggered market panic by depicting a scenario where AI would cause massive white-collar unemployment and economic collapse. This caused a sharp drop in US stocks, with the S&P 500 closing down over 1% and major software ETFs falling over 4%. Bull Theory's analysis points out that the combination of AI and stablecoins poses a significant threat to global payment giants, causing Visa's stock price to fall 4.6%, Mastercard's to fall 5.7%, and American Express's to fall 7.2%. Stablecoins, with their near-zero cost and second-level settlement advantages, saw their transaction volume surge to $33 trillion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 70%. Citibank even predicts that their supply could reach $1.9 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030.

Market sentiment dramatically recovered on February 24th, with all three major U.S. stock indexes closing higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged nearly 400 points, primarily driven by AI company Anthropic's emphasis at its product launch that its AI tools are "partners" rather than "replacements," boosting market confidence and causing its partners Salesforce, DocuSign, and Thomson Reuters to rise by 4%, 2.6%, and 11.4%, respectively. Meanwhile, AMD announced a $60-100 billion deal with Meta to supply 6 gigawatts of GPUs, sending its stock soaring 14%, with the market anticipating its AI chip market share to rise from 9% to over 15% by the end of 2026. Futures market data also indicates that traders, concerned about the impact of AI on the labor market, are betting on continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Against this backdrop, HSBC released a report defying public opinion, arguing that the software industry's valuation is at a historical low and will eventually "devour and tame" AI, predicting that 2026 will be the first year of AI monetization in the software industry . All eyes are now focused on Nvidia's upcoming earnings report, with the market widely expecting revenue of $65.56 billion. This report is seen as a key indicator of whether this AI boom is a "halfway break" or the "party is over."

The Bitcoin market is currently in a critical phase of negotiation. Coinbase Institutional's in-depth analysis indicates that key support for Bitcoin is at $60,000, while resistance lies at $82,000. Their Gamma Exposure (GEX) model shows a significant negative gamma exposure in the $60,000 to $70,000 range, meaning a break below this area could accelerate the decline. Conversely, positive gamma zones exist above $85,000 and $90,000, potentially suppressing price increases and leading to a "grinding and anchoring" pattern.

The structural lack of demand in the US market is considered the main reason for the selling pressure , with ETF funds continuing to flow out. Mining company Bitdeer also liquidated its Bitcoin holdings, although its chairman, Jihan Wu, later clarified that "holding zero does not mean there will be no future holdings," but market sentiment remains fragile. Samer Hasn of XS.com believes that a new downward cycle has begun, with a target of $53,000 to $55,000; Matt Howells-Barby of Kraken also warned that if $60,000 is breached, the next support level is $55,000. On-chain data reveals deeper risks. Glassnode points out that Bitcoin's realized profit/loss ratio (90-day moving average) has fallen below 1 for the first time since 2022, entering a state of "realized excess loss." Historically, this situation has led to price declines of 25% (2022) and 50% (2018) in the following months, respectively. Their model suggests a potential bottom may be around $44,000.

However, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index recently ended its approximately 40-day negative streak , rebounding to 0.0159%, suggesting that US institutional investors may be re-entering the market around $64,000. Glassnode data shows that despite the market being in a "realization of excessive losses" phase, over 400,000 Bitcoins have accumulated in the $60,000 to $70,000 range. Trader Cyril-DeFi believes the "weak hand cleansing" below $60,000 is complete, and the market is currently consolidating between support at $56,000 and resistance at $71,000 to $77,000. Mark, from a technical perspective, points out a "harmonic Gartley pattern" on the daily chart, based on the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, and he firmly believes a rebound to $69,000 is not difficult. Another trader, Sykodelic, has set the first target at $66,200 and is bullish on Bitcoin returning to $73,000. BitMine Chairman Tom Lee optimistically predicts that the crypto market will end its winter by April at the latest, and may only need one more dip to establish a bottom.

Ethereum's situation is equally precarious, with massive selling pressure primarily stemming from net outflows of 563,600 ETH (worth approximately $1.13 billion) from spot ETFs over the past five weeks. Furthermore, co-founder Vitalik Buterin's sale of approximately 17,000 ETH (worth approximately $34 million) in the past month has further eroded market confidence, despite his previous announcement that he would sell ETH from his personal holdings to fund the development of the Ethereum ecosystem.

On-chain data shows that Ethereum's TVL has dropped to $51 billion, the lowest level since May 2025, and network fees have also shrunk significantly. Although the MVRV ratio has fallen to 0.78, historically considered a long-term accumulation zone, analyst Ali Charts warns that under significant selling pressure, prices may continue to decline. If it breaks below $1,800, the key support levels below are $1,584, $1,238, and $1,089. From a technical analysis perspective, trader BitBull points to a bearish flag pattern forming, with a final target of the $1,400 to $1,500 range. Deeper criticism comes from Wintermute founder Evgeny Gaevoy, who bluntly states that Ethereum's TVL is largely "settled capital," and the entire crypto industry has deviated from the cypherpunk spirit that initially aimed to build a decentralized monetary system, instead indulging in speculation.

The entire crypto market has been in a state of extreme panic for 27 consecutive days . YZi Labs has recently reduced its holdings of invested tokens multiple times. Following the liquidation of ID two weeks ago, and AI and WOO yesterday, it transferred $4.37 million in EDU to Binance today. Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at XS.com, pointed out that geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainty, and tightening liquidity are jointly accelerating the withdrawal of funds from high-risk assets such as crypto markets. However, Steve Kurz, global head of asset management at Galaxy Digital, offered a more sober perspective. He believes that the recent decline is due to the release of liquidity and leverage, rather than a systemic failure, indicating that the market is more mature than in 2022. He predicts that the market will not experience a V-shaped recovery, but rather a period of range-bound trading, followed by a gradual rise as institutional capital flows in and cryptocurrencies become more integrated with traditional finance.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT on February 25)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

Bitcoin: $64,956 (down 25.83% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $44.12 billion.
Ethereum: $1883 (down 36.43% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $26.87 billion.
Fear of Greed Index: 11 (Extreme Panic)
Average GAS: BTC: 10.06 sat/vB, ETH: 0.35 Gwei
Market share: BTC 57.9%, ETH 10.2%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: ENSO, XRP, BTC, SKR, ETH
24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 50.34% / 49.66%
Sector Performance: The crypto market rebounded across the board, with the DeFi sector leading the gains at over 4%.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 88,206 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $222 million. This included $99.47 million in BTC liquidations, $47.35 million in ETH liquidations, and $8.47 million in SOL liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of February 24)

Bitcoin ETF: +$258 million
Ethereum ETF: +9.2271 million USD
SOL ETF: +$3.7777 million
XRP ETF: +$3.042 million

4. Today's Outlook

Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan: The new fiscal budget will be delivered on February 25.
Binance Leverage will delist some trading pairs and automatically liquidate related positions on February 26.
ZachXBT: An investigation report into insider trading at leading crypto companies will be released on February 26.
Cryptocurrency exchange ProBit Global will terminate all services on February 26th, urging users to withdraw their funds as soon as possible.
Nvidia earnings call (February 26, 6:00 AM)
The U.S. House Oversight Committee subpoenaed the Clintons to testify in the Epstein case (February 26).
The Bank of Korea announced its interest rate decision (February 26).
Plasma (XPL) will unlock approximately 88.89 million tokens on February 25th, worth approximately $10.79 million.
Humanity (H) will unlock approximately 105 million tokens, worth approximately $14.12 million, on February 25th.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Ether.fi up 15.2%, Morpho up 13.4%, LEO Token up 13.2%, Virtuals Protocol up 12.9%, and Kite up 11.5%.