Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
Macro Market
The Middle East conflict ignited panic on Wall Street, resulting in a bloodbath for the three major U.S. stock indexes . The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 403 points to close at 48,501, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.02% to 22,516, and the S&P 500 Index dropped 0.94% to 6,816, briefly breaking below the key support level of 6,800 and falling below the 100-day moving average. Bloomberg macro strategist Michael Ball warned that the negative Gamma zone below 6,800 is accelerating hedging pressure from market makers, and the VIX fear index surged to a year-to-date high of 25.16.
Furthermore, the US dollar index nearly broke through the 100 mark yesterday , reaching a new high since the end of November last year. Ultima Markets analyst Elon Gu pointed out that rising inflation expectations have weakened expectations of interest rate cuts, coupled with profit-taking by safe-haven funds, giving the dollar continued upward momentum due to potential liquidity needs.
The energy market spiraled out of control, with WTI crude oil surging 8.2% to $78.05 per barrel and Brent crude soaring 7.8% to $84 per barrel. Prices only recovered after Trump announced the deployment of the U.S. Navy and the DFC to provide escort and insurance for oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Adam Turnquist of LPL Financial believes this statement temporarily alleviated concerns about a global supply shock. Jessica Rindels of Goldman Sachs emphasized that every $10 increase in oil prices drags down U.S. GDP by approximately 10 basis points, making the S&P 500, with its high price-to-earnings ratio of 22, extremely vulnerable.
Amidst an extreme thirst for liquidity, traditional safe-haven assets have been sacrificed. Spot gold plunged over 3.7% yesterday, falling from a high of $5,400 to around $5,148, while silver plummeted by more than 12%, and platinum and palladium fell by 10% and 7% respectively. Currently, the precious metals sector is showing signs of a rebound.
The Asia-Pacific markets were hit particularly hard, with the South Korean stock market experiencing an epic sell-off . The South Korean KOSPI index plummeted 12.06% to close at 5093 points, repeatedly triggering circuit breakers during the session, accumulating a 20% drop in two days, almost wiping out all of February's gains. The Bank of Korea held an emergency meeting to assess market volatility and stated that it would intervene in coordination with the government if necessary. Analysts believe that the vulnerability of the South Korean stock market may stem from its 98% dependence on oil imports (with the Middle East accounting for over 70%), high foreign investment dominance, and the significant gains in the semiconductor sector previously. In addition, Japan's Nikkei 225 index plunged 3.61%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.3%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index also dropped 3%, and Thailand's SET Index plummeted 8%, triggering a trading halt.
The AI Sector: Trends and Events
Amidst the intertwined "AI panic" and geopolitical crises, tech giants' hefty capital expenditures are facing the most rigorous scrutiny from the market. The semiconductor sector is bearing the brunt, with the US semiconductor ETF plunging 3.8% and Nvidia falling 1.3%.
The arms race in Silicon Valley has not stopped. OpenAI launched the groundbreaking GPT-5.3 Instant, Google quickly retaliated with Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, and defense AI unicorn Anduril is raising $4 billion in funding at a valuation of $60 billion.
South Korea's two chip giants suffered a bloodbath, with SK Hynix plummeting 12% and Samsung Electronics also experiencing a sharp decline, wiping out hundreds of billions of dollars in market value. Analyst QINBAFRANK pointed out that Nvidia's cost pressures are directly targeting HBM memory, and the demand for high-end storage for AI computing power is intensifying.
Bitcoin price
After briefly breaking through $70,000, Bitcoin fell back to around $68,000. Major players are placing selling pressure above $69,000, while some funds are providing support below. The market may continue its oscillating trend in the short term. The current macroeconomic environment is complex, with escalating geopolitical crises, soaring oil prices, and a rising US dollar index. However, the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has decreased from 92% to 69%, indicating a stronger market perception of Bitcoin's independence. Furthermore, recent discussions about whether to carry physical gold or Bitcoin during periods of political turmoil have further reinforced Bitcoin's narrative as "digital gold."
Despite widespread panic, strong spot demand for buying on dips is driving overall sentiment toward a bullish rebound. Data shows that long-term holders' selling volume has plummeted by 87%, leaving only 31,000 BTC, while miner selling pressure has also decreased from a peak of over 4,700 BTC to 837 BTC. Meanwhile, super whales holding over 100,000 BTC have increased their holdings by 14,000 BTC. Currently, according to Unbias data, the market remains predominantly bullish.
Bearish view
Technical breakdowns and the temporary withdrawal of institutional funds are the core logic behind the bearish outlook for Bitcoin. They believe that Bitcoin will need to undergo a deeper correction before there is a substantial improvement in macro liquidity.
Keith Alan: Bulls failed to build momentum, and prices fell below the 2021 high and the 21-day moving average again, suggesting the market may repeat its eight-month period of consolidation.
Mister Crypto: Bitcoin's 3-day chart has shown its first "death cross" since June 2022, indicating that the market is entering the most brutal phase of the bear market.
Analyst consensus: The bottom has not yet been reached, and miners need to further capitulate before the final bottom can be reached; short-term holders are currently down 26%, whales are still distributing their chips, and the $70,000 resistance level is extremely damaging.
Glassnode: $70,000 is still the ceiling, not the floor. Every time the 12-hour moving average of net realized profit spikes, the price encounters resistance in the $69.4k range, reflecting the fragility of the current demand structure.
Darkfost: The average holding cost of Bitcoin at around $79,000 has created heavy selling pressure on the upside.
bullish view
Bulls firmly believe that selling pressure has dried up, and geopolitical crises have highlighted Bitcoin's censorship resistance and portable safe-haven attributes. The quiet accumulation of positions by whales and the optimistic expectations of institutions are building momentum for the next breakout.
Tom Lee: The worst sell-off will end this week, and the stock market will rise in March, led by tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.
10x Research: Bitcoin did not accelerate its decline despite risk aversion, and the compression of volatility and the recovery of ETF inflows indicate that selling pressure is waning and the market is undergoing a tactical shift.
Murphy: After a month, the BRS band signal has finally moved away from 100 and towards the 0 axis, with a historical win rate of 81.8%, indicating that a successful rebound is about to begin.
CryptoPainter: Based on the total supply of stablecoins and Bitcoin's market share, the current actual fair value of BTC is approximately $61,470, and the market is not significantly overvalued.
Ali Charts: Over the past decade, Bitcoin has consistently bottomed out within the MVRV pricing range of 1.0 to 0.8, and the current position has extremely strong historical support.
Ethereum price quotes
Ethereum recently encountered extremely stubborn resistance at the $2,000 mark, with the price struggling to hold around $1,950 amidst macroeconomic panic. Market data shows that approximately 1.23 million ETH changed hands around $1,890, forming solid cost support. Despite a surge in network activity and ETH reserves on exchanges falling to their lowest point in years, the market exhibits a clear divergence in funding: retail investors are continuously buying, while whales are selling on rallies, resulting in a stalemate between bulls and bears in the $1,800 to $2,000 range. Market sentiment leans towards seeking a breakout direction through consolidation. The wide straddle structure in the options market also indicates that market makers remain highly vigilant against sharp price swings.
Bearish view
Large-scale distribution activities and the risk of a technical chart breakdown constitute the main concerns of the bearish camp. They believe that if key support levels are breached, Ethereum will face a deep valuation reassessment.
Hyblock data analysis shows that market trading is diverging, with a CVD of -$162 million for transactions between $10,000 and $100,000, and a CVD of -$357 million for large transactions over $100,000, indicating that whales and institutions are net sellers.
Technical analysts' consensus: The lower trendline of the symmetrical triangle on the daily chart ($1,800-$1,900) is in danger. If it breaks below $1,850, the price may fall to the measured target of $1,400.
Glassnode (MVRV model): The MVRV extreme deviation pricing band suggests that Ethereum's price still has room to fall, and the bottom may be below $1,650 before realized profits reach extreme levels.
bullish view
The sharp contraction in supply on exchanges and the continued accumulation of tokens by retail investors are seen by bulls as the core driving force behind Ethereum's impending supply shock.
CryptoQuant / Arab Chain: More than 31.6 million ETH left major exchanges in February, marking the highest monthly outflow since last November. Binance's Ethereum reserves have fallen to a multi-year low of 3.46 million, exacerbating the supply shortage.
Hyblock data analysis: Retail trades with a volume of CVD between $0 and $10,000 are close to $95 million, indicating sustained and strong retail buying support.
Maartunn: There is a strong buying pressure of 67,000 ETH (about $130 million) below the spot price (around $1,800), forming an extremely solid liquidity support wall.
Key data (as of 13:00 HKT on March 4)
(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)
Bitcoin ETF: +$225 million
Ethereum ETF: -$10.7529 million
SOL ETF: +$1,030,400
XRP ETF: +7.5255 million USD
Fear of Greed Index: 10 (Extreme Panic)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: EDGE, BTC, XRP, ETH, SAHARA
Sector Performance: RWA and SocialFi sectors rose 2%, while AI and GameFi sectors fell 3%.
24-hour liquidation data : A total of 97,216 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $309 million, including $132 million in BTC liquidations, $58.9181 million in ETH liquidations, and $19.6849 million in SOL liquidations.
Today's Outlook
The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress convened in Beijing and concluded on the afternoon of March 12, lasting eight days (until March 4).
The Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book on economic conditions (March 5, 3:00 AM).
The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: River (up 33.9%), Kite (up 13.8%), XDC Network (up 8.8%), Internet Computer (up 4.9%), and Ether.fi (up 4.9%).
Hot News
Upbit will list its EDGE token on the Korean Won, BTC, and USDT markets.
Iran's Supreme Leader election may reportedly be postponed until next week.
South Korea's KOSPI index plunged 12% intraday as panic intensified.
Binance Alpha lists stock tokens from companies including Robinhood and Alibaba.
Coinbase has included Limitless (LMTS) in its listing roadmap.
A U.S. government address transferred 0.0378 BTC, worth approximately $2,520.
Data: 38% of altcoins are near all-time lows, exceeding market levels after the FTX crash.
