PANews reported on April 1st that, according to CoinDesk, the gap between Bitcoin's spot price and its realized price (the average cost basis of all on-chain tokens weighted by their last transaction time) is narrowing, approaching past cycle bottom levels. However, on-chain data shows that the market has not yet seen a typical capitulation sell-off. Currently, Bitcoin's realized price is approximately $54,286, while the spot price is approximately $68,774, representing a premium of about 21%. The bottom signal of the 2022 bear market was a spot price falling below the realized price, when the spot price was about 15% below the realized price, coinciding with a cycle low.

The current 21% premium means that the average holder is still in a profitable position. For Bitcoin to reach its realized price, it would need to fall another 20% to $54,000. Of particular note is the speed at which the premium has narrowed—from approximately 120% at the end of 2024 to 21% 15 months later, the fastest it has approached the realized price level except during market crashes. Other on-chain signals also indicate that the market has not yet completed its reset: the Coinbase premium index has returned to negative territory, indicating weakening institutional demand. Analysts believe that although Bitcoin has remained in the $65,000 to $70,000 range for five weeks, and ETF inflows exceeding $1 billion in March show the presence of buyers, the market has not yet experienced the painful process that historically marks a bottom.