Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

US, Hong Kong, and South Korean stock markets are closed today for a holiday, but the US stock futures market has already seen a surge, with futures for all three major indices rising. Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 1.4%, and S&P 500 futures rose 0.92%. JPMorgan Global Investment Strategist Kriti Gupta pointed out that if the AI ​​supercycle exceeds expectations, the S&P 500 could break through the 9,000-point mark within the next year.

The Nikkei 225 index broke through 65,000 points for the first time in history, surging over 3% intraday, while the Topix index also hit a new all-time high. The A-share market was equally strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.75%, the Shenzhen Component Index gaining 1.38%, the ChiNext Index soaring 1.79%, and the STAR Market 50 Index surging over 6% in the afternoon.

AI and the Stock Market

A-share STAR Market chip stocks experienced a comprehensive surge, with over 100 stocks hitting their daily limit, as funds poured into the semiconductor and computing hardware sectors. Huawei Semiconductor President He Tingbo officially released the "Tao (τ) Law," proposing to replace "geometric miniaturization" with "time miniaturization," and announced that a new Kirin mobile phone chip using logic folding technology will be released this fall. Based on this law, the transistor density of high-end chips is expected to reach the same level as 1.4-nanometer processes by 2031.

Cambricon's stock price surged over 11%, hitting a new all-time high, with its total market capitalization approaching 900 billion yuan; SMIC's stock price soared 19%, reaching a high of 157 yuan, also a new all-time high. In addition, several other stocks, including Huahong, Huada Jiutian, Shangluo Electronics, and Dongxin Shares, hit their 20% daily limit, while Shengmei Shanghai rose over 17%, also reaching a new high. JPMorgan Chase previously stated that if AI accelerates productivity gains and drives corporate profit growth, the technology sector will continue to rise, and the stock market boom of the late 1990s internet boom may be repeated.

Bitcoin price

Bitcoin is currently trading within a new narrow range between $75,000 and $78,000, and the recent CME gap remained unfilled last week. The options market indicates that the $78,500 level remains a key support/resistance level. Greeks.live points out that short-term implied volatility is low, making options spread strategies suitable for cost control. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows of $1.26 billion last week, marking the third worst weekly performance so far in 2026. Furthermore, Strategy, a long-time active Bitcoin holder, shifted its focus to bond purchases last week, ceasing further Bitcoin accumulation.

On-chain data shows that OG miners from the Satoshi Nakamoto era deposited 2,650 BTC (approximately $203 million) into institutional platforms FalconX and Cumberland, while a wallet that had been inactive for over a year deposited 1,650 BTC (approximately $127 million), indicating emerging selling pressure from whales. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost warned that apparent demand for Bitcoin has fallen to a year-to-date low of -147,000 BTC, indicating continued shrinkage in demand. If spot demand fails to recover substantially, the market will struggle to sustain its upward trend.

Bearish view

Tightening macroeconomic interest rate environment, outflow of institutional funds, and technical obstacles together constitute the core driving forces behind Bitcoin's short-term decline.

• 10x Research: Bitcoin's trend model has turned bearish, with $76,088 as a major bull-bear dividing line. Inflation is a risk that investors are mispricing, and the bond market has fully priced in one Fed rate hike before the end of the year.

• Crypto Patel: New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is a “renowned inflation hawk”, and the complex macroeconomic background may hinder his rate cuts. Being friendly to cryptocurrency regulation does not equate to taking a dovish stance on interest rates.

• Lucky: Bitcoin typically performs poorly in years of leadership changes at the Federal Reserve. Previously, BTC experienced a 60% to 84% drop when Yellen and Powell took office.

• Astronomer: Currently shorting with a target of a new low of 74.1k. Spot buying is merely covering up long positions; once the shorts are squeezed out, large players will push the market to new lows.

• Killa: Bitcoin's current price action is very similar to the market structure of 2022. If this pattern continues, Bitcoin may fluctuate downwards within a range, while the USDT dominance rate may continue to rise and remain high. $83,000 may be the short-term top for Bitcoin.

• Kaz: 78k-80k is the main area for shorting. If it cannot break through 80k, it will directly target the low of 70k.

• Michaël van de Poppe: After Bitcoin broke below the key support level of $75,000 to $76,000, it may fall further to $60,000.

• Bitfinex Alpha: The structural buying in this rebound is insufficient to offset the macroeconomic shift, and BTC is likely to trade in the $72,000-$80,000 range in the short term.

bullish view

Geopolitical easing, support from spot buying, and liquidity sweeps at key technical levels fueled Bitcoin's renewed upward momentum.

• Kapoor Kshitiz: If the US and Iran actually reach a peace agreement, Bitcoin may retest the 79K-80K range.

• CJ: As long as the implied fair value gap (iFVG) after clearing the equal low is held, the outlook for this week is bullish, with a target of 82.8k.

• Mooncake: Buyers absorbed over 1100 BTC of selling pressure, and Binance and OKX whales still hold over $55.8 million in net long positions. If the bulls cleanly and decisively recover 78.5k, BTC could be squeezed directly to 80k.

• HaxKai: Bitcoin is forming a recovery bottom in the 70k-75k demand zone. As long as the strong support at 72k-74k holds, the bullish recovery remains intact. Unless the daily or weekly closes below 71.8k, the extremely bullish outlook remains.

• CryptoFrog: If Bitcoin can rebound and break through the 200EMA (approximately 77.5k) on the 4-hour chart, the likelihood of the price rising back to the $80,000 area will increase significantly.

• CryptoCache: The CME gap ($75,915 - $76,485) from the weekend has been filled before and after the market opened, and it's ready to take off.

• Seth: The market is repeatedly clearing out both long and short leverage. CME futures closed near 75.9K on Friday, and a turnaround is expected after the shakeout.

• Max Trades: A price drop below 74.2k would sweep away liquidity below, but if the market structure remains intact, a new rebound is expected after the liquidity sweep.

Key data (as of 14:00 HKT on May 25)

(Data source: Coinank, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

• Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $1.257 billion last week, with BlackRock's IBIT experiencing the largest net outflow at $1.008 billion.

• Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $216 million last week, with BlackRock's ETHA experiencing the largest net outflow at $189 million.

  SOL ETF: Net inflow of $15.63 million last week

• XRP ETF: Net inflow of $22.04 million last week

• HYPE ETF: Net inflow of $72.38 million last week

• Fear of Greed Index: 30 (Fear)

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: ONDO, SOON, XRP, BTC, IN

• Sector Performance: RWA sector rose nearly 2%, NFT sector fell over 4%.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 52,942 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $191 million, including $53.14 million in BTC liquidations, $46.24 million in ETH liquidations, and $9.15 million in HYPE liquidations.

Today's Outlook

• Hong Kong and US stock markets are closed on Monday, and trading in gold, silver, and oil will end early.

• Binance Alpha plans to list Solstice (SLX) on May 25th.

• Phi, an on-chain identity protocol, announced that it will shut down on May 25.

• Curve Finance plans to upgrade its database on May 25th, during which the front-end interface will be temporarily unavailable.

• Binance Alpha will list Citrea (CTR) on May 26th.

• The Beacon S1 blockchain game will launch on May 26th, featuring a reward pool of 7.7 million BCN.

• Members of the Korea Digital Asset Association will delist RESOLV spot trading pairs on May 26.

• Plasma (XPL) unlocks approximately 88.89 million tokens, worth about $7.4 million.

• Humanity (H) unlocks 105 million tokens, worth approximately $19.05 million.

• Sahara AI (SAHARA) unlocked approximately 132 million tokens, worth about $4.5 million.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Unibase up 25.6%, DeXe up 19.1%, Humanity up 15.6%, Stable up 15.5%, and XDC Network up 7.6%.

Hot News

• Data shows that tokens such as H, XPL, and KMNO will undergo significant unlocking, with H unlocking value estimated at approximately $22.2 million.

• This Week's Preview | CME Group plans to launch 24/7 cryptocurrency futures and options trading; Humanity (H) unlocks approximately $22.2 million worth of tokens.

• Seven hours ago, two wallets withdrew 111 million SAHARA from the exchange, representing 3.4% of the circulating supply.

• A whale that had been silent for eight months sold 101,200 HYPE tokens, receiving 6.38 million USDC in return.

• Garrett Jin has bought 145,000 HYPE tokens in the past four days and has placed an order to buy approximately 40,000 more HYPE tokens.

• HYPE's market capitalization surpasses DOGE, ranking 9th in cryptocurrency market capitalization.

• OG miners from the Satoshi Nakamoto era deposited 2,650 BTC, worth $203 million, into FalconX and Cumberland.

• Arthur Hayes's linked wallet withdrew another 85,700 HYPE tokens from Bybit, equivalent to approximately $5.37 million.

• Two wallets that had been dormant for over a year deposited a total of 1,650 BTC, equivalent to approximately $127 million, into FalconX.

• Vitalik: The Ethereum Foundation will "scale down" and reduce the amount of ETH sold.

• A certain whale sold a total of 35,000 ETH in the past three days, earning $72.3 million.

• Technical warning signs are rising for ETH: If BitMine holdings fall further, losses could exceed $10 billion.

• The stablecoin USDR has decoupled from the EURR, causing the EURR to drop by 20%.

• a16z has accumulated 5.93 million HYPE tokens this year, with a floating profit of $86.72 million.

• Bitmine has been shortlisted for the 2026 Russell 3000 Index.

• Nasdaq receives SEC approval to list Bitcoin index options

• Warsh sworn in as Chairman of the Federal Reserve

• Tiger Brokers: Subsidiary fined RMB 308.1 million by Beijing Regulatory Bureau

• Futu Holdings: The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) proposes to impose a total fine of approximately RMB 1.85 billion on the company, and a personal fine of RMB 1.25 million on the company's founder.