Trading Moment: Cryptocurrency and US stocks rise broadly as markets await Trump's speech on the Iran situation at 9 AM tomorrow.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

U.S. stocks rebounded strongly on Tuesday, with nine of the eleven sectors rising. Communication services (+4.42%) and information technology (+4.24%) led the gains, while the semiconductor ETF outperformed the pack with a 5.7% increase. The S&P 500 surged 2.9%, the Nasdaq rose 3.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2.5%, marking their largest single-day gains since May 2025. However, the S&P 500 still fell 4.6% in the first quarter, and the Nasdaq dropped 7.1%, their worst quarterly performance since 2022.

This single-day surge was mainly driven by factors such as improved geopolitical expectations, short covering, and pension rebalancing.

First, expectations for a US-Iran reconciliation have risen significantly . Both the US and Iran expressed a willingness to end the Middle East conflict on Tuesday. The Iranian president stated his intention to cease hostilities, provided that "aggression is ensured to cease again"; US President Trump also indicated that an agreement could be reached within two to three weeks. The White House subsequently announced that Trump would deliver a national address at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday (9 a.m. Beijing time on April 2nd), providing a "significant update" on the situation in Iran . Analysts believe this will be a crucial moment for Trump to defend his military actions or announce a troop withdrawal.

Secondly, Goldman Sachs traders pointed out that the market triggered the second-largest short covering since April of last year, forcing short sellers to buy and close their positions, which pushed up the index. This, coupled with the quarter-end effect, led to the eighth-largest pension rebalancing since 2000. Approximately $34 billion in buying poured into the market, creating one of the top ten days of buying imbalance in US stock market history.

Has the market truly bottomed out?

Bloomberg strategist Simon White warned that the net number of stocks hitting 52-week lows on the NYSE is only slightly negative, and less than 20% of the S&P 500 stocks have an RSI below 30, far from reaching the historical bottom threshold of 40% to 50%. Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager Tony Pasquariello also stated that despite the largest oil supply shock in history, the decline in US stocks has been relatively limited, and the downside asymmetric risk still outweighs the upside.

Despite a surge in U.S. stocks on Tuesday, Warren Buffett remained cautious about the market outlook in an interview with CNBC on March 31st. He stated, "This drop is nothing." He wouldn't enter the market based on a 5%-6% rebound, and is patiently waiting for a true crash similar to the three historical plunges exceeding 50%. ( Related reading: Buffett's first post-retirement comments: No good targets in U.S. stocks, sold Apple too early, supports zero inflation target )

Bitcoin price

Despite widespread expectations of a six-month consecutive decline, Bitcoin unexpectedly closed higher in March, ending the month with a positive candle. Overall, Bitcoin fell 22% in the first quarter, following a 25% drop in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking its sixth consecutive month of underperformance compared to US stocks and setting an unprecedented low. Currently, the spot price of BTC is hovering around $69,000, still representing a 21% premium over its realized on-chain price of $54,286, meaning most holders are still in a profitable position. The options market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, with put option premiums reaching as high as 17%, while monthly futures premiums are only 2%, indicating a lack of demand for bullish leverage. However, the exchange dominance of whales has climbed to a ten-year high of over 60%, while the retail investor share has plummeted, suggesting that major funds may be accumulating positions covertly. Some analysts predict that Bitcoin prices may consolidate in the $69,000-$72,000 range, and could even break through to $76,000-$78,000.

Bearish view

The market rebound lacked support from spot buying, futures leverage dominated price fluctuations, and the macro structure is still in a corrective downtrend, with the true bottom yet to be confirmed.

Godot: The proportion of call selling in bulk options surged to 40.27%, indicating strong institutional resistance around the $70,000 level, making a breakout extremely difficult without active buying in the spot market. Meanwhile, the proportion of put selling dropped to 9.67%, suggesting institutions are unwilling to provide downside support. $69,000 is the biggest resistance level for options this Friday; a break above this level with significant volume could be considered a bullish signal, otherwise the bias remains bearish.
Ardi: The $60,000 drop on high volume is just a “sell-off climax” in the crash process and does not mean that the macro bottom has been confirmed. Just like in June 2022, there is still more pain ahead.
Man of Bitcoin: The price has not yet formed a clear five-wave upward structure; it is still a corrective rebound and is more likely to continue downward.
CJ: While willing to try going long in the $66,000 demand zone, I am not optimistic about whether the support level can hold. If there is a rebound, I am still bearish overall.
Altcoin Sherpa: The 4-hour 200 EMA is around $70,000. Considering the dense moving averages and the huge range, this will not be a strong support level. Hopefully, I won't get trapped again.
filbfilb: The overall outlook remains bearish, with the 50-day moving average (around 68.8k) acting as a key resistance level, and every upward rebound in price has been suppressed.
Michael van de Poppe: The question now is not whether Bitcoin will fall, but when it will fall, as every rise is ruthlessly crushed.
Wintermute: The ratio of perpetual contracts to spot trading volume has climbed to 15 times, indicating that the market is completely leveraged, lacks directional bias, and is extremely fragile.
Axel Adler Jr: The 13-week correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 has fallen below zero, and the BTC/S&P ratio continues to decline, indicating that Bitcoin is being viewed as a high-risk asset.

bullish view

Prices have shown resilience at key support levels, and historical cyclical patterns, the liquidity appeal of liquidation pools, and extreme values of on-chain indicators suggest that the market is about to rebound or even break out.

LP: A large amount of short-selling liquidity has accumulated in the 69-70K and 72K areas above, and the price is likely to sweep this liquidity upwards.
Lennaert Snyder: Bitcoin is entering an excellent long zone. If it retraces to the lower shadow of $65,600, it will target $69,470 and $72,000.
Killa: USDT market share has formed a descending wedge pattern on the daily and weekly charts. If it breaks below this key area, BTC could rise to 76K-78K. Furthermore, this cycle's recovery is faster, with a potential straight upward surge in just 4-6 months, reaching a new high in April-May 2027. Bitcoin is currently between a long liquidation zone of $64,000-$65,000 and a short liquidation zone of $69,000-$70,000, and both levels are expected to be tested.
Murphy: The CVDD indicator is currently at $45,410 and rising slowly, suggesting that early large holders have stopped selling. Historically, BTC has never fallen below the CVDD, and the current deviation is remarkably similar to the three previous historical bottoms.
Rand Group: Despite extreme panic in the macro sentiment, the selling pressure on Bitcoin has not increased, which is a positive sign.
MAC_D: The share of short-term holders has fallen to 3.98%, and historically, readings below 4% have often coincided with market bottoming phases.

Key data (as of 13:00 HKT, April 1)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

Bitcoin ETF: +$118 million
Ethereum ETF: +$31.1684 million
Fear of Greed Index: 8 (Extreme Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, ETH, RAY, ONT
Sector Performance: Crypto sector showed mixed performance, while AI sector fell nearly 10%.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 84,874 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $303 million, including $112 million in BTC liquidations, $69.65 million in ETH liquidations, and $35.58 million in Brentoli liquidations.

Today's Outlook

CoinShares completes its SPAC merger and will be listed on Nasdaq on April 1.
Starting April 1st, the Magic Eden wallet will only allow data export; it will cease operation completely on May 1st.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: Starting April 1, it will target US companies in the region.
Binance will delist spot and futures trading of cryptocurrencies such as A2Z and FORTH on April 1st.
EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock approximately 36.82 million tokens, worth about $6.3 million, on April 1st.
ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock approximately 44.26 million tokens, worth about $2.2 million, on April 1st.
Sui (SUI) will unlock approximately 42.94 million tokens on April 1st, worth approximately $37.2 million.
Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 40.63 million tokens, worth about $3.7 million, on April 2nd.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Algorand up 20.1%, Stable up 16.7%, Zcash up 8.1%, Sei up 7.6%, and Morpho up 7.4%.