Trading Moments: S&P 500 nears new high; if BTC fails to hold above $73,000, it may fall to $69,000.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

Markets rebounded sharply after Trump declared the war with Iran "nearly over" and hinted at restarting negotiations in Pakistan within the next two days. Wall Street bulls regained control, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.66% to 48,535.99 points and the Nasdaq Composite surging 1.96% to 23,639.08 points, marking its longest winning streak since November 2021 with a cumulative gain of over 12%. The S&P 500 also jumped 1.18% to close at 6,967.38 points, not only fully recovering its losses since the outbreak of the war but also approaching its all-time high. As Goldman Sachs strategist Chris Hussey stated, the stock market is forward-looking, and the market cannot tolerate waiting for a problem that will eventually be resolved, which explains the current retaliatory rebound.

Asian markets also followed suit, with major A-share indices opening higher across the board. The ChiNext index approached 3600 , hitting a new high since June 2015. Japanese and South Korean stock markets performed strongly, with the Nikkei 225 index breaking through the 58,000-point mark, rising over 1%; the South Korean KOSPI index surged 3% to 6183 points. Doug Peta, a strategist at BCA Research, stated that the financial markets currently seem less concerned about the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Economist Ed Yardeni believes that the S&P 500 index bottomed out as early as March 30th, and the market has learned to coexist with war.

However, commodities and macroeconomic data are still subtly at odds. Hopes for peace are quickly eroding the "war premium," with WTI crude oil plunging nearly 8% to below $90. The US March PPI rose only 0.5% month-on-month, below expectations, and the 10-year US Treasury yield followed suit, falling to 4.25%. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent seized the opportunity to assert his belief that the US economy could easily achieve 3% to 3.5% growth, and that tariffs might be reinstated in early July. He also criticized the Federal Reserve for consistently misjudging inflation and argued that interest rate cuts should be more aggressive. However, IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warned of a potentially dire global economic outlook, while RBC Capital's Lori Calvasina and Citigroup's Raghav Datla quickly poured cold water on the situation, reminding everyone that persistent inflation and the aftermath of war could trigger another market correction at any time.

AI and the Stock Market

AI once again became the brightest star in the US stock market, with the "Big Seven" tech stocks collectively surging, rising 3% in a single day and accumulating a 15% gain over the past 10 trading days. Meta and Nvidia led the gains with increases of 4.41% and 3.8% respectively, while the memory chip index hit a new all-time high for the fifth consecutive day, with Micron Technology soaring 9.17%. Meanwhile, Google Chrome , riding the AI wave, added the Skills feature, allowing users to save and reuse AI-generated suggestions across web pages, and its stock price rose 3.61%. However, Goldman Sachs traders Nelson Armbrust and Rich Privorotsky remained calm, stating that the rebound in software stocks was merely a "technical short squeeze" after a significant drop, and that the fundamental problem of AI suppressing the long-term profits of the software industry remained unresolved.

The actions of tech giants are reshaping the entire industry. Nvidia yesterday released its open-source "Ising" quantum AI model, specifically designed to solve the major challenges of quantum processor calibration and error correction, and it has already been adopted by top institutions worldwide, including the Fermilab. Nvidia's Jensen Huang announced that AI will become the operating system for quantum computing, turning fragile qubits into reliable GPU systems. This news sent the quantum computing sector soaring, with SEALSQ surging 21%, and IonQ and D-Wave also rising by 20% and 15%, respectively.

Mergers and acquisitions in the semiconductor industry are also in full swing. Credo Technology acquired DustPhotonics, a silicon photonics developer, for $750 million in cash and stock, causing its stock price to surge 18.73%. Meanwhile, Meta and Broadcom signed a comprehensive agreement to extend their AI accelerator collaboration to 2029.

Bitcoin price

Bitcoin's price surged to $76,000, its highest point since the February 6th crash, fueled by positive macro sentiment, before retreating to around $74,000. Bitcoin network daily transaction volume surged to 765,130 transactions, a 17-month high, and total network fees also rose 4% to $153,700. Institutional investors were also heavily buying yesterday, with the US spot Bitcoin ETF seeing a net inflow of $410 million on April 14th. According to Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33 Research, Binance's Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rate has been negative for 46 consecutive days, and open interest continues to climb. This situation last occurred after the FTX crash in 2022, which marked the bottom of the crypto winter. Historical data shows that similar risk aversion and crowded short positions often lead to significant market rallies, creating buying opportunities.

Bearish view

The core logic of the bears is that the current rebound lacks substantial support from spot buying, and historical cyclical patterns and the dense liquidity area above suggest that this may be a bull trap.

Murphy: When BTC rebounded to $76,000, BRS returned to zero, and there was no significant increase in momentum buyers and the number of new valid addresses, indicating that the sentiment was cautious; unless there is a breakout above $81,000 with high volume, the current level is a temporary top, and the higher it goes, the greater the need for a pullback.
Killa: Based on the historical pattern of the past 300 days, the market is likely to see bearish price behavior between the 14th and 24th of each month. Any upward rallies will eventually be swallowed up by pullbacks. As long as it cannot hold above $73,000, the price could slide to $69,000 at any time. It is expected that the price will test the bottom at around $60,000 in the next few months.
Doctor Profit: The current market situation is a bull trap created by market makers to accumulate liquidity in the lower range (US$53,000-57,000). There is also a lot of liquidity in the upper range of US$79,000-84,000, and short orders have been placed there. Overall, the judgment remains completely bearish.
LP: The Coinbase Premium Index has turned green on higher timeframes, which historically usually indicates a local peak.
Man of Bitcoin: A clear five-wave upward structure has been completed and encountered resistance in the predetermined local top area. A second wave correction is expected to follow, with key support levels between $71,656 and $67,224.
Keith Alan: The 21-week moving average around $78,300 is a key level to watch; if it fails to break through, prices will face a new round of declines.

bullish view

The core logic of the bullish camp is that the long-term negative funding rate is brewing an epic short squeeze, and the continuous inflow of on-chain activity and institutional funds will drive the price to complete a structural breakthrough.

CryptoBlockto: A break above $76,000 signals a return of bullish momentum and a trend reversal, with the ascending triangle pattern targeting $89,050.
CryptOpus: Prices are trading within the horizontal supply zone of an ascending triangle. A strong breakout of this pattern and the 100-day moving average would confirm a bullish market rally.
Ardi: The push toward $76,000 has cleared out a lot of trapped liquidity, and as long as the bulls can hold the local support at $72,000, the chart will see a new round of upward movement.
Sykodelic: After successfully capturing the $6,000 upside, observing that the current negative funding rates are as extreme as they were at the $60,000 bottom, the market is poised for another short squeeze.
Han Tan: $75,000 is a key battleground between bulls and bears. A successful breakout will attract sidelined buyers back and pave the way to the mid-term target of $80,000.
Dessislava Ianeva: $79,000 is the real structural resistance level. The market has remained stable while absorbing ETF outflows, and there are no signs of an impending sharp correction.
Kevin Murcko: The $75,000 mark is a psychological barrier that easily attracts traders' attention, and the momentum from news events could easily push it above that level.

Market Dynamics

The Fear & Greed Index has risen above 20 for two consecutive days, indicating some easing of extreme panic. With the recent rebound in the crypto market, crypto stocks have also surged, with Coinbase (COIN) shares rising 5.66% and Circle shares rising 6.9% yesterday. Analyst Ali Charts pointed out that Coinbase has retraced to the $150 "buy zone," a level historically seen as the starting point for multiple doublings in price.

In the BSC ecosystem , several projects have recently experienced extreme price movements. The price of RAVE token has approached $20, rising nearly 65 times from $0.30 to $19.76 in the past week. ARIA has seen even more dramatic fluctuations. After a plunge of over 90% on April 9th, followed by a few days of recovery, it plummeted again by over 92%. It is reported that this crash may have been caused by market manipulators selling 45.64 million tokens for 5.42 million USDT in the early morning.

In addition, the once-popular BUILD ($B) token plummeted by over 40% today, with its price nearing below $0.10. Meanwhile, projects associated with Binance founder CZ, such as "Binance Life" and GIGGLE, also corrected along with the broader market after several days of gains. "Binance Life" rose from $0.0432 to a high of $0.39 this month, an increase of over 8 times, but has now fallen back to around $0.31; while GIGGLE rose as much as 50% to $56 yesterday, but has corrected by nearly 30% today, currently trading around $40.

Key data (as of 13:00 HKT, April 15)

(Data source: Coinank, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

Bitcoin ETF: +$411 million
Ethereum ETF: +$53.0329 million, marking the fourth consecutive day of net inflows.
SOL ETF: +$1.273 million
XRP ETF: +$11,198,200
Fear of Greed Index: 23 (Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: CC, BTC, ETH, ZAMA, IN
Sector Performance: Most crypto stocks declined, with the GameFi sector falling over 5%, while only the CeFi and Meme sectors remained relatively resilient.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 128,397 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $375 million, including $110 million in BTC liquidations, $73.11 million in ETH liquidations, and $20.36 million in RAVE liquidations.

Today's Outlook

Yupp.ai announced that it will be officially shut down on April 15th, allowing users to download chat data.
French President Emmanuel Macron will deliver a speech at Paris Blockchain Week on April 15.
Russian media: The next round of US-Iran talks may be held in Islamabad on April 16.
The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to consider Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman on April 16.
Bank of America Q1 Earnings Report: Expected EPS 1.01 (April 15, 18:45)
Morgan Stanley Q1 Earnings Report: Expected EPS 2.978 (April 15, 19:30)
US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 (in thousands): Expected 213,000, previous 219,000 (April 16, 20:30)
New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech (April 16, 20:35)
Starknet (STRK) will unlock approximately 127 million tokens, worth about $4.3 million, on April 15.
Connex (CONX) will unlock approximately 1.32 million tokens, worth approximately $15.22 million, on April 15.
Sei (SEI) will unlock approximately 55.56 million tokens, worth about $3 million, on April 15th.
Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock approximately 92.65 million tokens, worth about $10.3 million, on April 16.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: RaveDAO up 29.5%, DeXe up 21.6%, Gate up 4.7%, MemeCore up 3.2%, and PancakeSwap up 2.5%.