ARK Insider Guide: Is SpaceX's $1.75 trillion valuation really worth it?

Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow

Introduction: SpaceX secretly filed for an IPO with the SEC on April 1st, targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion and raising up to $75 billion, with a potential listing on Nasdaq in June 2026. This would be the largest IPO in capital market history.

ARK Invest, one of SpaceX's largest venture capital holders, has released this comprehensive investment guide, addressing investors' most pressing questions one by one, from valuation logic and business breakdown to fund holding strategies.

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On April 1, 2026, SpaceX filed a draft confidential registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), taking its first step toward going public. This would be the largest initial public offering (IPO) in capital market history. The company targets a valuation of $1.75 trillion, with a potential fundraising amount of up to $75 billion, and is expected to list on Nasdaq as early as June 2026.

This news is not unexpected for investors in ARK Venture Fund. SpaceX has long been the fund's largest holding, accounting for 17.02% of the fund's net assets as of March 31, 2026. ARK began building and refining its investment arguments when SpaceX was an early venture capital investment, and it was well-prepared for the questions flooding its investor inbox.

This guide answers the most important ones.

What exactly did SpaceX submit? What will happen next?

SpaceX's confidential filing allows the company to submit its financial data to the SEC for review before disclosing it to the public. According to SEC rules, the public version of the S-1 prospectus must be released at least 15 days before the company begins marketing its stock to investors. This prospectus will be the first window for the outside world to see SpaceX's complete financial picture, including revenue figures, profit margin structure, accounting treatment for the February 2026 xAI merger, disclosure of defense contracts, and the governance framework that will determine how much control Elon Musk will retain after the IPO.

This IPO, internally codenamed "Project Apex," is being underwritten by a mega-syndicate of at least 21 banks. Its Nasdaq listing in June 2026 will make SpaceX the first of what Bloomberg calls a "super IPO trio"—ahead of OpenAI and Anthropic—and will break Saudi Aramco's 2019 record of $29 billion by nearly three times.

Is the $1.75 trillion valuation justified?

ARK's research aims to answer this question. The most rigorous answer is: this valuation reflects a specific set of assumptions about the future, rather than the current reality.

Based on a valuation of $1.75 trillion and projected revenue of approximately $18.5 billion in 2025, SpaceX's price-to-sales ratio at its IPO price is about 95. No company of similar size has ever traded at this multiple in the public market. This valuation reflects investors' belief in SpaceX's future form, and understanding it requires breaking it down into its individual business segments.

Starlink is the financial engine. SpaceX's satellite internet service is projected to have over 10 million active users globally by early 2026, with revenue exceeding $20 billion by 2026. ARK's research has long identified Starlink as the fastest-growing telecommunications network globally in terms of both users and revenue, a judgment that has proven to be even somewhat conservative. According to ARK's research, the annual revenue opportunity from scaling up the satellite connectivity market alone could approach $160 billion, and Starlink structurally occupies a disproportionately large share.

Launch services remain the foundation. SpaceX completed 165 orbital launches by 2025, deploying approximately 85% of the world's spacecraft. ARK research shows that since 2008, the company has reduced launch costs by about 95%—from about $15,600 per kilogram to less than $1,000 per kilogram for the Falcon 9. According to ARK's research, the fully reusable Starship aims for less than $100 per kilogram, which would achieve another order of magnitude cost reduction and open up market opportunities that do not currently exist.

The xAI merger and orbital computing represent the most forward-looking dimension in valuation. The merger in February 2026 will vertically integrate launch, communications, and AI modeling infrastructure under one entity. ARK research suggests that with launch costs below $100 per kilogram, orbital data center computing power costs could be approximately 25% lower than terrestrial solutions, without facing grid interconnection delays, approval frictions, and power scarcity issues. Musk has stated that the company's goal is to launch 100 gigawatts of AI computing power annually. This argument is still in its early stages, but it is precisely this that allows the merged entity to obtain a strategic premium that cannot be fully captured by any sum-of-the-parts model.

ARK's research argues that the $1.75 trillion IPO target is built on a credible development trajectory for SpaceX's core business segments, underpinned by enduring structural advantages. Starlink's user growth continues to exceed expectations. The decline in launch costs follows a predictable path based on Wright's Law. The xAI merger adds a strategic dimension to the platform, one that no comparable publicly traded company has yet attempted to replicate. Publicly listing on S-1 will provide financial transparency, allowing investors to rigorously examine these assumptions, which ARK believes the fundamentals can withstand.

Can Elon Musk achieve his goal?

ARK's investment framework is based on a simple premise: a bold technological vision, if supported by a proven downward curve in cost and accelerated adoption, is worth taking seriously—even if the market consensus is skeptical.

By this standard, SpaceX's track record deserves respect. Musk's goal of fully reusable rockets was once considered unrealistic by the traditional aerospace industry, but SpaceX has achieved it. His vision of building a global satellite internet network for billions of underserved people was considered financially unfeasible, but Starlink has proven otherwise. The company has deployed over 10,000 Starlink satellites in low Earth orbit, serving over 10 million users, and achieved cash flow break-even in 2023.

The grander goals—including a lunar factory and a network of one million orbital data centers—are still far from proof of concept. But ARK's research doesn't require every goal to be achieved to support its investment argument. The existing business segments, developing on their current trajectory, are sufficient to support an attractive investment case. The option value embedded in these grander goals represents upside potential not yet reflected in ARK's current valuation model—a part of the model is being updated.

In ARK's view, Musk's goals are radical by any historical standard, and SpaceX has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to shorten the timeline expected by skeptics. This is not a guarantee, but ARK believes that this historical record itself is a meaningful data point.

Why would investors want to gain exposure to SpaceX before its IPO?

This is perhaps the most important question for investors evaluating ARK Venture Fund, and the answer has several dimensions.

The window for value creation has shifted forward. Private companies are going public at increasingly older ages; the median age of US companies going public in 2025 will reach 12 years, compared to just 5 years in 1999. Today's most watched companies created significant value while still private. Investors who wait until the company goes public may have already missed the most significant period of value appreciation.

An IPO price is not the same as the purchase price for most investors. When a company the size of SpaceX goes public, the offering is preferentially allocated to institutional investors. Retail investors who cannot directly participate in the IPO offering will buy in the open market at a price determined by supply and demand on the first day—a price that is often much higher than the IPO price. Historical experience shows that highly valued, high-profile IPOs often experience significant volatility after listing before stabilizing at long-term price levels.

ARK Venture Fund's investors have access to VC-level funding. ARK Venture Fund holds shares in SpaceX directly—through structured products that bypass secondary market intermediaries, special purpose vehicles (SPVs), or additional fee layers and valuation premiums. ARK Venture Fund investors have exposure throughout SpaceX's valuations: from $350 billion (2024), to $800 billion (2025), to a post-merger $1.25 trillion, and finally to the current $1.75 trillion IPO target. This value creation trajectory occurs entirely in the primary market, which is precisely the design intent of ARK Venture Fund.

What will happen to ARK Venture Fund's holdings after SpaceX goes public?

ARK clearly anticipated this scenario and its impact on investors when designing its venture capital fund.

ARK Venture Fund is an evergreen crossover fund designed to hold positions in companies throughout their entire lifecycle, from early and late private phases to IPO and beyond. SpaceX's IPO is not a matter for the fund to "manage"; the investment vehicle itself was designed for this purpose.

Following SpaceX's IPO, the fund's holdings may be subject to a standard lock-up period during which ARK's SpaceX shares cannot be sold. During this lock-up period, new funds injected into the ARK Venture Fund by new investors will be deployed to other private companies, accelerating the rebalancing toward the fund's goal of approximately 80% private exposure.

After the lock-up period ends, the fund will have full flexibility to manage its SpaceX position—reducing its holdings as appropriate and reallocating funds to next-generation private innovation companies within ARK’s five core technology platforms (artificial intelligence, robotics, energy storage, multi-omics, and blockchain).

The performance of any ARK Venture Fund holding—whether public or private—is directly reflected in the fund's net asset value (NAV). SpaceX's valuation growth during its private phase is reflected in the fund's NAV in real time. Due to ARK Venture Fund's cross-phase nature, this relationship remains unchanged at the time of the IPO. If SpaceX goes public at a higher valuation, ARK Venture Fund investors will benefit accordingly, and vice versa. For long-term investors, an IPO represents a significant liquidity event in a company's lifecycle, and the ability to position oneself before the public market repricing opportunity is precisely ARK Venture Fund's advantage.

ARK Venture Fund's portfolio extends far beyond SpaceX. Current holdings include OpenAI, Anthropic, Neuralink, Databricks, Replit, Crusoe, Radiant, Boom, Lambda, Discord, and over 50 other private companies. A successful SpaceX IPO would be a significant milestone, freeing up capital and portfolio flexibility to allow ARK to continue building what it considers the most attractive private innovation portfolio accessible to ordinary investors.

Important Information

SpaceX's IPO filing was a draft confidential registration statement at the time of this writing. The final valuation, timing, and structure have not yet been confirmed. The public S-1 prospectus has not yet been released. All cited data reflects publicly reported estimates and ARK's independent research. This article does not constitute investment advice.

Holdings are subject to change at any time. This does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security.