PANews reported on April 28th, citing CoinDesk, that Markus Thielen, Head of Research at 10x Research, stated that Bitcoin's recent surge towards $80,000, accompanied by a significant drop in trading volume and negative funding rates, has raised questions about the sustainability of the rebound. Bitcoin's weekly trading volume is 17% below average, Ethereum's trading volume is down 20%, funding rates are down 6.8% to the 3rd percentile, and trading volume is down 33% to the 4th percentile. This surge is primarily driven by spot buying or short covering, rather than leveraged long speculation. Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows for nine consecutive days, with total inflows reaching $2.5 billion in April, pushing Bitcoin's market capitalization share to 60%. Options market volatility has fallen to the lower quartile of its historical range, with traders pricing in relatively mild price fluctuations. Ethereum trading volume has dropped by more than 50%, and derivatives positions indicate limited risk appetite. Thielen pointed out that the market has shifted from a more active trading environment to one where most participants are on the sidelines; historically, low funding rates and low trading volume reflect hesitation rather than momentum. However, due to the limited leveraged long positions, the risk of forced liquidation on the downside is reduced. If a catalyst emerges, the short-term risk-reward ratio will be asymmetrically upward.
Analysis: Bitcoin's rise was accompanied by shrinking trading volume, indicating that this upward trend is susceptible to macroeconomic shocks.
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Author: PA一线
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