Source: Xinhua News Agency
Sixty days have passed since the outbreak of hostilities in Iran, and the United States and Iran are locked in a stalemate of "no war, no talks." Recently, the Iranian Foreign Minister visited several countries, launching a "diplomatic offensive" to counter the United States' "epic anger" and "economic fury."
Why are the US and Iran at an impasse? How long will this impasse last?
International opinion holds that the US and Iran may be facing a "frozen conflict," with the risk of renewed hostilities remaining high, yet neither side willing to engage in a full-scale war. Furthermore, the tensions continue to spill over, impacting regional and global security and development. "The war launched by the US to maintain its hegemony is making the whole world pay the price."
What strategic shift is revealed by Iran's "diplomatic offensive"?
In recent days, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi has engaged in multi-front diplomacy, visiting Pakistan and meeting with Omani Sultan Haitham in Oman. His trip to Russia on the 27th has garnered particular attention.
Russian President Vladimir Putin held talks with Araqchi for an hour and a half in St. Petersburg. Putin stated that Russia will do its utmost to protect the interests of Iran and other countries in the Middle East, and will make every effort to promote peace in the Middle East as soon as possible.
On April 25, Pakistani Prime Minister Sheikh Shahbaz (left) held talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi in Islamabad, the capital. (Photo provided by the Office of the Prime Minister of Pakistan/Xinhua)
According to various sources, through Araghchi's visit, Iran proposed a new "step-by-step" plan for negotiations with the United States: first, focusing on the Strait of Hormuz crisis and the US maritime blockade, with the ceasefire to be extended indefinitely or all parties agreeing to a permanent end to the conflict, and nuclear negotiations to begin only after the Strait of Hormuz is reopened and the US blockade is lifted.
Araghchi also handed over to Pakistan the conditions for ending the war, including the implementation of a new administration of the Strait of Hormuz, receiving war reparations, and ensuring that the United States lifts its maritime blockade and ceases aggression.
The United States has confirmed receiving Iran's proposal, but its response has been lukewarm. A U.S. official stated that President Trump said on the 27th that he "didn't like the proposal" because it did not address the nuclear issue.
Analysts believe that, judging from the attitudes of the US and Iran, both sides still have the willingness to continue negotiations.
Iran's new proposal indicates a shift in its strategy from an initial comprehensive, one-step approach to a more phased and pragmatic framework. While adhering to its bottom line, Iran is employing multi-pronged diplomacy, proactively probing US reactions to gain control of the next round of negotiations.
Why are the US and Iran stuck in a stalemate of "no war, no talks"?
Experts believe that the US and Iran are stuck in a stalemate of "no war, no talks" due to three reasons, and this stalemate may continue for some time.
First, there is absolutely no political trust. Hassan Ahmadian, a professor at the University of Tehran in Iran, said that Iran has abandoned any illusions about the United States and will not easily accept the US's negotiating terms. Araghchi's two recent visits to Pakistan were more about giving an account of Pakistan's mediation efforts.
Secondly, their negotiating positions are opposed. Currently, the differences between the US and Iran on the two core issues of the nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz remain "irreconcilable." At the same time, the objectives of both sides in the negotiations are almost "open secrets." Al Jazeera reports that, given its difficulty in gaining the upper hand on the battlefield, the US is attempting to use negotiations to "force change through pressure" and obtain what it has failed to achieve on the battlefield; while Iran similarly views the negotiations as an "extension of the war" and will not easily compromise.
Third, both sides are under domestic pressure. Bao Chengzhang, an expert at Shanghai International Studies University, believes that both the US and Iran are facing domestic pressure. The Trump administration is caught in a dilemma: it is unwilling to compromise in negotiations, nor does it want to go to war with Iran again. Furthermore, with the midterm elections approaching, its policy space is further limited. On the Iranian side, the new leadership hopes to stabilize the domestic situation through a tough stance against the US, but at the same time, the losses and damage from the war make it difficult to continue fighting.
On April 16, U.S. President Donald Trump gave a media interview on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Li Yuanqing/Xinhua)
Analysts believe that the "no war, no talks" stalemate reflects both sides' attempts to buy time for strategic space. The US aims to cripple Iran's economy through a maritime blockade, potentially even triggering domestic unrest; Iran, on the other hand, hopes to use the economic pressure from oil price fluctuations and the political pressure of the US midterm elections to "overwhelm" the Trump administration.
Barring any major unforeseen events, this stalemate is likely to continue. Australian scholars believe that this deadlock could become a state of "frozen conflict," meaning that the root causes of the conflict remain unresolved, and low-intensity clashes could erupt at any time, but will not escalate to the level of "total war."
How the 60-day war impacted the world
The war between the United States and Israel has lasted for two months, with increasingly profound impacts on the Middle East, the world, and even "our lives." American media say, "The whole world is paying the price for the war initiated by the United States."
—The Strait of Hormuz may bring "irreparable shocks." Blocked by the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz has entered a "dual blockade" mode between the US and Iran, continuously impacting global energy markets, disrupting trade and supply chains, putting pressure on food systems, turbulent global financial environments, and triggering inflation risks in many countries. As a result, several institutions have lowered their global economic growth forecasts for this year.
An article in Nikkei Asia magazine stated that this is "the most economically destructive war in half a century," shaking multiple pillars of the global economy, and its impact will last for many years and cannot be reversed quickly.
Thick smoke rises from a location in southern Lebanon after an Israeli attack on April 26. (Xinhua/Gil Cohen-Magen)
—The region is facing a dual dilemma of security and development. The stalemate between the US and Israel and Iran may continue for a long time, and the risk of renewed and escalating conflict cannot be eliminated. At the same time, more regional forces, such as the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, may be drawn in, and the region will face long-term instability.
For Gulf countries in particular, the United States’ “security guarantee” has become a “risk factor”. The continued instability in the region has caused them to lose their status as an “investment oasis of stability in the Middle East”, and the region faces difficulties in both security and development.
—The international order has been impacted. The conflict in Iran demonstrates that US hegemonic behavior has formed an extremely dangerous inertia, becoming the root cause of current global instability. If power is not restrained, and rules are broken, it will trigger a "broken window effect," leading to more and more frequent and unimaginable dangerous acts, making the world more volatile and chaotic.
The war with Iran, aimed at maintaining US hegemony, is triggering a "systemic crisis" in the world, said Brahma Chellaney, a professor at the Centre for Policy Studies in India. "And the world is only just beginning to pay the price."
