PANews reported on May 7th that, according to The Block, Project Eleven, which focuses on post-quantum security, released a report warning that the "Q-Day," the critical point for quantum computers to break modern encryption, could arrive as early as 2030, with a greater than 50% probability of it occurring by 2033. The report predicts that advancements in quantum computing will be explosive rather than linearly gradual, with the combined effects of hardware and algorithms potentially leading to leaps in capabilities that are either completely silent or instantaneously explosive. Last month, researchers used quantum hardware to derive a 15-bit elliptic curve key, which, while still far from cracking the 256-bit encryption used in Bitcoin, constitutes preliminary verification. Project Eleven estimates that approximately 6.9 million Bitcoins may face quantum risks under certain conditions.

Previously, Paradigm researchers proposed using timestamps to prove ownership, so that funds could be recovered in a quantum-resistant version of Bitcoin in the future; Jameson Lopp et al.'s BIP-361 proposal suggested establishing a multi-year migration window. Google has also moved up its target time for migrating to quantum-resistant encryption to 2029.