Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

US President Trump and Iran mutually rejected each other's proposed peace plans, reigniting tensions between the two countries. Stimulated by this, Brent crude jumped 5% to $105 per barrel, while WTI crude rose nearly 6% to $100. Futures for all three major US stock indices weakened, with Dow Jones futures, S&P 500 futures, and Nasdaq 100 futures falling approximately 0.21%, 0.13%, and 0.08%, respectively. Scott Rubner of Citadel Securities warned that the US stock market is being supported only by a few technology stocks, raising concerns about market concentration.

South Korean stocks opened higher and continued to rise, with the KOSPI index surging over 5% to a record high of 7,870 points. Futures even triggered a circuit breaker due to the 5% surge. JPMorgan Chase is extremely bullish, raising its target for the KOSPI index for the second time in less than a month, predicting that the KOSPI index will aim for the 10,000-point mark in a bull market scenario. Goldman Sachs also raised its target to 9,000 points last week.

By midday closing, all four major A-share indices had risen, with the Shanghai Composite Index surging 0.94% to break through 4200 points, reaching a new high in over a decade. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose 2.13% and 3.03% respectively, closing at 15895.75 and 3911.32 points. The STAR Market Composite Index climbed to 2109.10 points, with nearly 3000 stocks across the market showing gains.

The April CPI data will be released on Tuesday. Wall Street analysts say that if the April CPI is significantly higher than expected, the market may shift from "pausing interest rate cuts" to "interest rate hikes," and global stock and bond markets may face repricing pressure.

AI and the Stock Market

The global memory sector surged, with SanDisk and Micron Technology both jumping over 15% on Friday. South Korea's total market capitalization surpassed 7,000 trillion won for the first time today, with SK Hynix shares soaring nearly 14% to 1.922 trillion won, pushing its market capitalization above $900 billion; Samsung Electronics jumped over 6%, reaching a market capitalization of $1.2 trillion. JPMorgan believes the upward cycle in memory chips, corporate governance reforms, and thematic growth in AI are the main drivers. Memory chip prices and shipments are expected to continue rising over the next two years, supporting the long-term upward trend of the South Korean stock market.

A-share storage stocks surged, with Tongyou Technology hitting the 20% daily limit, Montage Technology soaring over 17%, and Jiangbolong, GigaDevice, and Biwin Storage all rising over 9%.

Faced with such a frenzied market, Wall Street heavyweights are beginning to take precautions. "Big Short" Michael Burry warned that the current market obsession with AI is strikingly similar to the final stages before the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000. Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group, a long-time bullish market maker, also warned that the recent rally in tech stocks may not last long.

Bitcoin price

For the first time since January 26, Bitcoin has closed above $82,000 on both the daily and weekly charts. Since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility and has risen by nearly 30%.

On-chain data shows that retail investors have increased their holdings by over 23,000 BTC in the past 30 days, while whales have increased their net holdings by over 140,000 BTC during the same period, a two-year high. Currently, the implied volatility (IV) of 1-week and 1-month options has fallen below 40%. Analyst Murphy points out that this extremely consistent market consensus is often a contrarian indicator of large-scale volatility.

Notably, funds are flowing out of South Korea's cryptocurrency market and into the domestic stock market. South Korean investors' cryptocurrency holdings have halved to $41.4 billion in a year, daily trading volume on major exchanges has plummeted from $11.6 billion to $3 billion, and won deposits have also decreased significantly. As the South Korean stock market repeatedly hits new highs, attracting substantial capital inflows, the South Korean cryptocurrency speculators who previously drove up the kimchi premium are now shifting their focus to the stock market.

Bearish view

Core logic: Macroeconomic inflation data has already been priced in by the market, and the current structure needs a deep pullback to clear out floating shares. There is heavy resistance above, so it is not advisable to blindly chase the highs.

Killa: The positive impact of the CPI has already been priced in, and large funds may be reducing risk before the data release. $84,000 is a very strong resistance level; if it cannot be broken, $74,000-$75,000 will be the next pullback target.
Santiment: The bullish to bearish ratio on social media has reached 1.5:1, and such confident rallies are often extremely short-lived. The ideal scenario is a pullback to $75,000 to shake out late-stage bulls and reset market sentiment.
Darkfost (CryptoQuant): Bitcoin's total network hashrate has fallen below the annual average, competition among miners has intensified, some mining companies are facing shutdown pressure, and the industry is entering a painful adjustment period.
Michael van de Poppe: I wouldn't be surprised at all if the price retests the $70,000 to $75,000 range before Bitcoin continues its crazy bull run.

bullish view

Core logic: Institutional funds and spot ETF buying remain strong, coupled with potential benefits from the US regulatory environment, and the technical outlook has shown signs of a breakout.

Markus Thielen (10x Research): This week's Senate confirmation vote for the Federal Reserve Chair and the advancement of the CLARITY bill will eliminate policy uncertainty and provide strong support for Bitcoin to stabilize above $80,000.
Ash Crypto: Bitcoin closed above $82,000 for the first time this week, breaking above the 20-day weekly moving average for the first time since 2026. The weekly MACD has formed a bullish golden cross, and the RSI has risen to 52, entering bullish territory. Current support is at $74,000. US stocks have risen for six consecutive weeks. If US stocks remain stable this week, funds may flow into the crypto market; however, a decline in US stocks could put pressure on crypto assets.
CrypNuevo: Bitcoin is expected to hit the $84,000 to $85,000 range in the short term. The current key support level is at $79,000. If it falls below this level, it may lose its upward momentum.
Cryptic Trades: As long as the price can hold the "bull market support zone" below $80,000 and the high-cycle support at $75,000, further upward movement remains the most likely outcome.
Matthew Hyland: Bitcoin's upward momentum remains strong, and it is highly likely to reach the target range of $87,000 to $95,000 before June.

Market Dynamics

The altcoin market experienced a localized surge. With strong performance in the US stock market and a large influx of cryptocurrency funds into the on-chain US stock sector through channels like OKX and Binance Alpha, ONDO , a leading project in the RWA sector, saw a nearly 70% increase in May alone. Meme coin GOBLIN surged 140% after OpenAI CEO Sam Altman mentioned a new model that might be named "Goblin," pushing its market capitalization above $18 million.

Mysten Labs co-founder Adeniyi Abiodun revealed yesterday that the Sui network will launch confidential transaction functionality this year, supporting large-scale privacy payments. Meanwhile, SUI Group, the Sui treasury company, announced that it held 108.7 million SUI tokens as of May 4th, most of which were pledged. Driven by multiple positive factors, the price of SUI rose by 25% in a single day.

Furthermore, the recent surge in Uniswap V4 hook narratives has driven UNI prices up by over 30% since May. This has not only led to a large number of innovative projects but has also spurred the resurgence of the NFT market.

Key data (as of 14:00 HKT, May 11)

(Data source: Coinank, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

Bitcoin ETF: Net inflows of $623 million last week, marking the sixth consecutive week of net inflows.
Ethereum ETF: Net inflow of $70.49 million last week
SOL ETF: Net inflow of $39.23 million last week
XRP ETF: Net inflow of $34.21 million last week
Fear of Greed Index: 48 (Neutral)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, SUI, LAYER, ETH
Sector Performance: The crypto market saw broad gains, with the PayFi sector leading the way at 3.26%.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 80,192 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $356 million, including $105 million in BTC liquidations, $79.08 million in ETH liquidations, and $30.32 million in SOL liquidations.

Today's Outlook

The lending protocol Venus will close its vSXP marketplace on May 11th; users must withdraw their funds in advance.
Coinbase will suspend trading on Chrono.tech (TIME) starting May 12.
Ronin will migrate to Ethereum Layer 2 on May 12th, during which the mainnet will be down for approximately 10 hours.
Based (BASED) will unlock approximately 50 million tokens, worth about $5 million, on May 11.
Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock approximately 1.67 million tokens, worth about $16.5 million, on May 12.
The U.S. Treasury Department launched a $125 billion quarterly refinancing operation on May 11.
Circle's first-quarter earnings report (pre-market on May 11)
US April CPI year-on-year: expected 3.7%, previous value 3.3% (May 12, 20:30)

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Sui (up 19.9%), Sei (up 12.9%), Kite (up 9.6%), Terra Luna Classic (up 8.4%), and Venice Token (up 8.0%).

The US CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year in April, the highest level since May 2023.

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