Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
Macro Market
Tuesday's sell-off in tech stocks caused significant volatility in U.S. stocks. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell more than 4% at one point before closing down 0.97% below Friday's low. The S&P 500 Index declined 0.26% to 7386.65 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly by 0.17% to 50872.11 points, supported by defensive sectors such as consumer staples.
Geopolitical tensions escalated again after the downing of a US helicopter, with the US military striking 20 targets in Iran. Iran subsequently retaliated against US bases in Jordan and Bahrain. This caused significant volatility in the oil market, with WTI crude oil briefly falling below $87 before closing down more than 3% at around $88.50.
Gold prices were also affected, with spot gold falling to the $4,200 mark, a near three-month low, and breaking below the 200-day moving average. Standard Chartered analysts pointed out that with rising inflation and higher real yields, ETF funds are accelerating their outflow, and the current ETP holdings structure is relatively fragile, potentially amplifying downward pressure on prices. The next important technical support level is around $4,100. It's worth noting that Citigroup analysts stated in a report on Monday that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until late summer, gold prices could fall to $3,500. Despite this, Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, remains bullish, believing $4,000 is a solid floor and predicting a rise to $10,000.
U.S. inflation data for May will be released tonight at 8:30 p.m. Wall Street institutions generally predict that, driven by soaring energy prices, the overall CPI in May may rise to 4.2% to 4.3% year-on-year, a near three-year high; however, the core CPI is expected to be only 0.17% to 0.22% month-on-month, significantly lower than the market consensus. The cooling of sub-items such as housing and auto insurance may be key to the slowdown in core inflation. The market is currently closely watching this data to assess the policy stance of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh, at next week's interest rate meeting.
US Stock Market Update
US stocks performed poorly after the AI hype subsided, with tech stocks experiencing a sharp sell-off. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell as much as 8.6% intraday, with ARM and Marvell Technology dropping more than 10% intraday, and Micron Technology and Intel also falling as much as 7% and 5%, respectively. Apple's stock plunged 3.64% after failing to deliver any surprises at WWDC, leading the decline. Advanced Micro Devices (SMCI) announced a massive $7 billion equity financing round to purchase AI server components, but concerns about severe equity dilution caused its stock to plummet by more than 10% in a single day, closing down 7.62%.
The optical communication sector experienced a bloodbath triggered by a research report. SemiAnalysis, a well-known AI research institution, released a report stating that Nvidia's 800VDC power architecture and CPO (co-packaged optics) mass production will be delayed until 2028. This expectation directly crashed the industry chain, with AAOI (Xiangmao Optoelectronics) plunging 17% in a single day, Lumentum falling 8%, and chip giant COHERENT plummeting 11.44%. Although Nvidia Vice President Gilad Shainer vehemently refuted this at Computex, claiming that CPO is "the most exciting technology right now" and will be mass-produced in the second half of the year, this failed to stop the spread of panic. The market began betting on NPO and traditional pluggable modules as transitional alternatives.
Meanwhile, Oracle will release its earnings report after the US stock market closes on Wednesday. The market consensus is for revenue of $19.1 billion. TD Cowen and UBS have raised their target prices to $300 and $285 respectively, believing that the cloud infrastructure business still has room for acceleration. Jefferies analyst Brent Hill stated that strong demand for cloud infrastructure will be a key factor driving the stock price, and the options market indicates that traders expect the company's stock price to fluctuate by as much as 11% in a single week after the earnings release.
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin continued to be under pressure, with the Bitcoin ETF experiencing a net outflow of $77.43 million yesterday, bringing its total assets down to $775.8 billion, completely erasing the incremental funds that had flowed in since Trump's election victory.
The market is cautious about the upcoming US CPI data, with analysts pointing out that high inflation could further undermine Bitcoin's legitimacy as a hedging tool. Bitwise research shows that Bitcoin often reacts before traditional markets, so its current movement may foreshadow a broader risk correction. Glassnode's MVRV model warns that once $60,000 is decisively breached, the deep value range of $50,000 will become the next relentless magnet.
Ethereum also weakened, with options market data showing that open interest in ETH has fallen 25% from its May high, indicating waning investor confidence in future price movements. Despite institutions like Bitmine buying 75,000 ETH worth $122 million against the trend, analyst Ash Crypto warned that if it falls below $1,500, Ethereum could head straight for $1,000.
Frequent black swan events on the blockchain have exacerbated the panic. Sahara AI was mistakenly reported to have been dumped due to a CCIP cross-chain bridge replenishing liquidity, causing the token to plummet by nearly 60% in a single day. The Humanity project suffered an even more devastating blow when hackers compromised employee computers and frantically issued 1 billion H tokens. Currently, the prices of both H and SAHARA tokens have rebounded.
Today's Preview:
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: SAHARA, WLD, XRP, BTC, ETH
Magic Eden (ME) will unlock approximately 172 million tokens, worth about $10.4 million, on June 11.
HOME (HOME) will unlock approximately 750 million tokens, worth approximately $40.2 million.
The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: BEAT up 48.7%, UB up 21.2%, WBT up 13.3%, STABLE up 12.9%, and MORPHO up 7.6%.
Asia Pacific Market Report
Asian stock markets were not immune to the downturn, experiencing a sharp drop as they were caught in the double whammy of the Middle East conflict and the collapse of US tech stocks.
South Korea's KOSPI index suffered an extremely severe sell-off, plummeting 6.46% and triggering a circuit breaker at one point; Japan's Nikkei 225 index also plunged more than 1,600 points, a drop of 2.49%. Arjun Jayaraman, portfolio manager at Causeway Capital, pointed out that the proliferation of highly leveraged retail funds and new ETFs in the Japanese and South Korean markets is amplifying this panic volatility.
Semiconductor giants became the hardest hit by the sell-off in the Asia-Pacific market. Despite a report in the *Korea Economic Daily* that Samsung Electronics was planning to build an advanced packaging plant in Gwangju, the news seemed powerless against the macroeconomic panic. Samsung Electronics' stock price plummeted by over 7%, and SK Hynix's even steeper drop was over 8%. Japanese chipmakers also suffered a rout, with Advantest and Kioxia both falling nearly 4%. Furthermore, even SoftBank Group's stock price plunged by over 9% in a single day after its attempt to use OpenAI shares as collateral for a $6 billion loan was thwarted.
Amidst this chorus of lamentations, the A-share market defied expectations, exhibiting independent logic driven by strong economic data and World Cup anticipation. China's May export figures were phenomenal, surging 19.4% year-on-year in dollar terms, with integrated circuits soaring 111% and computer equipment skyrocketing 66%. ANZ strategist Xing Zhaopeng remarked that the global AI hardware boom is substantially reshaping China's trade landscape. On the consumer side, with less than 48 hours until the opening of the USA-Canada-Mexico World Cup , the anticipated "late-night viewing" economy fueled by the time difference ignited the beer sector, with Huiquan Beer hitting its daily limit, and Zhujiang Beer and Yanjing Beer rising over 5%, becoming a rare bright spot in the gloomy market.
