PANews reported on May 15th that, according to BIT analysis, if Bitcoin had kept pace with the Nasdaq's rise, its current price should be close to $140,000. Bitcoin's relative underperformance may be related to the resurgence of inflation since the third quarter of 2025. Overall, Bitcoin previously largely followed the Nasdaq's fluctuations, but since October 2025, the divergence between the two has begun to widen significantly.

At that time, the latest CPI reading had rebounded to 3.0%, 100 basis points above the Fed's target, and the interest rate market had begun to gradually withdraw some of its pricing in a rate cut in 2026. This was precisely the source of the real pressure on Bitcoin. Bitcoin's upward momentum relied on expectations of Fed easing, and once the market began to revert to pricing in a rate cut, its performance often came under pressure. This logic continued to influence Bitcoin's price movement thereafter. Stocks, on the other hand, were quite different. As long as the market viewed inflation as moderate and temporary, a rebound in inflation was actually beneficial to stocks: even if sales did not increase significantly, it could boost nominal corporate revenue, reduce real debt burdens, and enhance the attractiveness of stocks as a hedge against purchasing power.

The latest US inflation data appears to have caught some market participants off guard, even though the agency's models had previously indicated that price pressures might resurface. The key questions now are: will this repricing of inflation expectations weaken Bitcoin's continued positive fundamentals; and in this context, how should investors adjust their positions?