CITIC Securities: Be wary of another surge in long-term interest rates in developed markets.

PANews reported on May 18th that, according to a research report from CITIC Securities, on May 15th, the 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 4.5%, and the 30-year US Treasury yield reached 5.0%, breaching two key psychological thresholds. Simultaneously, long-term interest rates in major developed markets such as the UK, Japan, and Germany rose in tandem, putting pressure on global risk assets. We believe the recent rise in interest rates is driven by comprehensively higher US inflation data, the lingering effects of the "Wash shock," increased US Treasury supply pressure, political turmoil in the UK, and concerns about capital outflows triggered by rising Japanese bond yields. As a global asset pricing anchor, the significant rise in long-term US Treasury yields is expected to lead to a stronger dollar, reduced valuations of growth stocks, pressure on precious metals and long-duration credit assets, and a liquidity shock to emerging markets. We believe the market previously ignored oil price and inflation risks, but with global crude oil inventories continuing to deplete, high oil prices, inflation, and interest rates are likely to persist. Going forward, the key focus will be on developments in the Strait of Hormuz and policy signals following Warsh's inauguration.

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Author: PA一线

This content is for market information only and is not investment advice.

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