Written by: Mach, Foresight News

On May 18, Nicolas Vaiman, founder of Bubblemaps, and Deebs (a former U.S. military officer whose real name is withheld for security reasons), the head of investigation, disclosed to the public that they had discovered nine highly correlated anonymous accounts on Polymarket that had netted more than $2.4 million in total from the U.S. military operations prediction market, with a win rate as high as 98%.

Bubblemaps conducted a detailed analysis of these accounts on Twitter, revealing that they almost exclusively bet on military events related to the 2026 US-Iran conflict, with a chillingly precise timing—often placing bets days before key actions and favoring long-term options with low odds.

This is not simply "good luck." Bubblemaps discovered a huge pink cluster that had not been mentioned on the X platform before, after visualizing the transactions in the Polymarket market for "the first US strike on Iran before February 28."

Further investigation revealed that the initial four accounts were completely linked to five others through time windows, transaction volumes, and fund flow paths. The fund paths of the nine accounts were highly consistent: funds were transferred from centralized exchanges to a shared wallet network within a very short period of time, suggesting the use of professional services to conceal traces.

Each of the four core accounts earned $400,000.

On the morning of February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale joint strike codenamed "Operation Epic Fury" and "Operation Lion's Roar." US and Israeli forces launched nearly 900 strikes against Iran within 12 hours, targeting nuclear facilities, missile bases, military command centers, and hideouts of high-ranking leaders. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, along with several members of his family and senior members of the Revolutionary Guard, were killed in the first wave of attacks.

As early as February 28, the day of the strike, Bubblemaps publicly flagged six "new" accounts. These accounts were mostly created and funded within 24 hours of the strike, accurately betting that "the US will strike Iran before February 28," collectively netting approximately $1 million (some reports say $1.2 million). At the time, market odds were extremely low, yet these accounts heavily invested. Bubblemaps called it "suspected insider trading."

Five months later, they discovered a nine-account cluster that was larger and had a higher success rate.

Four core accounts were created a few days before February 28th, each earning approximately $400,000; five subsequent accounts were linked through overlapping fund flows and trades. The nine accounts placed over 80 bets in total, almost all betting on US military action: the initial strike on February 28th, the specific time of Khamenei's elimination, the announcement of a ceasefire agreement, etc. They even spread their bets across multiple dates to maximize profits, while occasionally placing one or two small losing bets (such as on February 20th), seemingly to cover their tracks.

Bubblemaps listed nine Polymarket wallet addresses (such as 0x09d3273fa76282ce09f4f35a87d6f087c05f4e84) and highlighted that these accounts consistently topped the profit and loss rankings. The funds ultimately flowed into a shared wallet network, indicating professional money laundering or related services.

Vaiman stated bluntly, "Luck can't explain these numbers." Deebs added that there are many potential sources of inside information—government officials, military planners, intelligence analysts, and even military families.

Earlier this year, U.S. Army Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was accused of using classified information to bet on a Venezuelan special operation on Polymarket, investing $34,000 and making a profit of $400,000 before quickly withdrawing the money and attempting to delete the account. Polymarket actively cooperated with law enforcement, ultimately leading to the prosecution. The Van Dyke case is considered a landmark case of insider trading in prediction markets.

This time, the nine-account cluster profited six times more, had a higher success rate, and focused entirely on the US-Iran military incident.

Bubblemaps exclusively shared its investigation with 60 Minutes, which aired on the evening of May 17 and garnered significant attention. CBS reported that Polymarket has established an AI-powered monitoring and blockchain-based forensics system to report suspicious activity to law enforcement, emphasizing that "insider trading is unwelcome on the platform."

As of press time, Bubblemaps has not directly linked the nine accounts to any specific entity or government department, only stating that "the association and near-perfect winning rate raise serious suspicions."

Anti-insider trading and copy trading insider trading

Insider trading has been met with strong discontent among many market participants, prompting prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, to take further steps to combat it.

In late March of this year, Polymarket updated its Market Integrity Rules for its DeFi platform and the U.S. exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The updated rules clarified three core prohibited insider trading behaviors:

Trading with stolen confidential information — If a participant possesses confidential information about the outcome or possible outcome of an event, and using such information would violate a prior obligation of trust or confidentiality to another person or entity, the participant shall not engage in any contractual transaction.
Trading with unlawful insider information is prohibited—Participants may not use confidential information provided to them by others for trading if such information is provided by a person to whom they have a prior obligation of trust or confidentiality, and the participant knows or has reason to know that the person providing the information will themselves be prohibited from using the information for trading.
Those who can influence the outcome of a transaction are prohibited from participating in any contract transaction if they possess the authority or influence sufficient to affect the outcome of the underlying event.

However, rules always have loopholes. Since insider trading cannot be completely eliminated, some so-called "insider copy trading projects" with ulterior motives are also highly controversial. These apps compile a list of trading accounts with abnormally high win rates for users, or mark transactions with suspicious timing or abnormal amounts, and help users copy these transactions with one click.

Kreo's selling point is helping users "find insider traders earlier than others," while Polycool directly posts "Polymarket Insider Trading Guide" on its official website, stating that "this is not the stock market, betting with non-public information will not land you in jail, and the rules of decentralized prediction markets are completely different."

The question then arises: is using a copy trading address considered a violation?

There has been no official response so far.

However, so-called "insider trading platforms" such as PolyGUN and Polycule suffered hacker attacks this year, resulting in losses ranging from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars.

The report states that neither Iran nor the United States made any commitments regarding the nuclear issue in the draft agreement.

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