Trading Moment: Bitcoin Touches 200-Week Moving Average for First Time Since 2023; $60,000 in Danger

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

On Thursday, Trump declared that ceasefire negotiations had reached the "final key stage of ending the war with Iran," but conflicting signals from various Middle Eastern parties left the market weary, with both WTI and Brent crude falling by more than 3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1.73%, hitting a new closing record high after just one trading day; while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell slightly by 0.09% after experiencing a deep "V"-shaped reversal, and the S&P 500 Index closed essentially flat.

Expectations for interest rate cuts remain uncertain, with Federal Reserve officials playing coy. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly spoke cautiously, emphasizing that current policy is within an appropriate range and warning that excessive forward guidance could ultimately be misleading. Economists predict that the May non-farm payroll data, to be released Friday evening at 8:30 PM, will show an increase of 85,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%. Furthermore, the Fed will hold its first policy meeting under new Chairman Warsh on June 18th. CME data shows the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for the fifth consecutive time in June. Freedom Capital Markets strategist Jay Woods cautioned that if the upcoming non-farm payroll data is stronger than expected, the "high interest rate era" may be prolonged; conversely, if the data is weak and the unemployment rate is close to 4.5%, the market may again bet on the possibility of future rate cuts.

South Korean stocks experienced a sharp decline, with the KOSPI index plunging over 6% at one point, even triggering a five-minute trading halt. The South Korean stock market had previously risen by a cumulative 105%, but concerns have arisen regarding its narrow market breadth. Data shows that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix together account for 54% of the KOSPI's market capitalization, becoming the main drivers of market volatility. Meanwhile, retail investor participation and brokerage deposits have recently declined. The chief investment officer of Seoul Eugene Asset Management predicts that the South Korean stock market may enter a period of increased volatility and consolidation within the next one to two months.

AI and the Stock Market

The AI-driven wealth creation myth is facing real challenges, with the semiconductor sector experiencing a sharp correction due to overcrowded trading, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closing down more than 2%. Broadcom's latest revenue guidance failed to meet the market's wildly inflated AI expectations, causing its stock price to plummet by more than 12% in a single day, dragging Micron Technology down by more than 7.7%, and Arm and AMD down by more than 4% and 3% respectively. South Korean chip giants SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics fared even worse, plummeting by more than 9% and more than 7% respectively.

In response to the sharp decline, Mark Malek, chief investment officer of Siebert Financial, pointed out that while demand and capital expenditure in the AI sector are real, the market's valuation of AI concept stocks has far exceeded actual growth expectations, and stock prices are clearly overvalued. Matt Maley of Miller Tabak frankly stated that this is a "healthy correction" for chip stocks, which have been rising parabolicly since March.

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio also warned that the AI market has exhibited typical bubble characteristics, including overvaluation, rampant speculation, and "paper wealth" far exceeding actual cash flow. He predicts that the bursting of the AI bubble will lead to the disappearance of some companies, but the impact of AI technology itself on the economy and society will continue.

Furthermore, US AI giant Anthropic warned that the "recursive self-improvement" capabilities of AI systems could pose significant risks to society, urging top global labs to slow down their development efforts. While some question its motives, suggesting it might be aimed at limiting competitors or marketing its own technology, this warning has heightened market concerns about the potential for AI technology to spiral out of control.

Bitcoin price

Bitcoin has been falling recently, plunging more than 20% in the last 10 days, with the price once hitting a four-month low of $61,100. Of particular concern is that Bitcoin has now fallen to near the key 200-week moving average (approximately $61,821), the first time it has been touched since 2023. This key level proved to be a very strong resistance level during the brutal bear market of 2022.

The market seems to be mirroring the devastating scene of 2022: Bitcoin plummeted 37.28% in June 2022, and has already fallen over 15% since June 2026. Currently, 10.5 million Bitcoins are not yet at a loss, with only 9.8 million remaining in profit territory. The RSI indicator is approaching its deepest oversold zone since 2020. Coupled with professional investors significantly reducing their ETF exposure by 17% (52,000 Bitcoins) in the first quarter, and the continued selling of BTC by whales and institutions like Abraxas Capital, market liquidity is under extreme pressure. The key focus for Bitcoin now is whether it can ultimately hold the recent low of $60,000 and the support of the 200-week moving average.

Bearish view

The core logic of the bears lies in the depletion of macro liquidity and the breakdown of micro support. They believe that the current rebound is merely a bull trap after leveraged liquidation, and the market is far from reaching the real bottom line of pain.

Atlas CEO Reza Bundy (backed by "Dr. Doom"): Bitcoin has failed as an inflation hedge and could plummet 70% to the $26,000-$30,000 range within the next six months.
Bloomberg analyst/zeroxkyle: Strategy faces tightening liquidity, and the drop in its preferred stock STRC below par value could trigger a "doomsday cycle" of exhausted buying interest, further exacerbating the sell-off panic.
Peter Schiff: The market is far from bottoming out. If it falls below the $50,000 mark, the confidence of long-term holders will be completely shattered, and the price may quickly drop below $20,000.
Daan Crypto Trades: The major downtrend that began last October continues to this day. The current key battleground is whether the $60,000 and 200-week moving average support levels can ultimately hold.
CryptoFrog: The current trend is strikingly similar to the crash that broke below $83,000 a few months ago. If the final support level of $62,400-$63,600 is breached, a flash crash will be repeated, and the price will fall to a new bear market low of $52,000-$48,000.
Jim Ferraioli: Bitcoin is losing its dominance in momentum trading as funds are being ruthlessly drained by IPOs with sky-high valuations like SpaceX and AI stocks, leading to a liquidity crunch in the crypto market.
Darkfost (CryptoQuant analyst): The percentage of Bitcoin holdings that are profitable has fallen to 55%, and is about to break through the 50% bear market threshold, which is an extremely clear bearish signal in the short term.
Crypto Raven: A further 35% drop to $53,000 is expected, but we have already begun to slowly buy in and implement a dollar-cost averaging strategy for the next bear market rally.

bullish view

The bullish camp, on the other hand, seeks solace in the patterns of historical cycles, believing that extremely brutal market corrections and drops to the core moving average at the bottom of the cycle present excellent opportunities to build positions on the left side.

Barchart: Bitcoin has fallen to its 200-week moving average, which, historically, has often been an excellent buying opportunity.
ColinTalksCrypto: Reaching the 200-week moving average is a key milestone, and given the recent steep decline, there is a high probability that Bitcoin will see a strong rebound here.
Michaël van de Poppe: The daily RSI has reached its deepest oversold zone. As long as Strategy preferred shares can rebound, this is a golden area for staunch believers to accumulate positions.
The Wolf of All Streets: The number of Bitcoins with unrealized losses exceeds the number with profits. This crossover has historically coincided with the bottom of major bear markets, and we are extremely close to the bottom.
BitcoinHabebe: The bottom of each major cycle has precisely fallen between the 200-week and 300-week moving averages (currently between $61,000 and $54,000). If history repeats itself, just patiently invest.
Geoffrey Kendrick (Standard Chartered Bank): After the recent sharp decline, "the bottom has almost appeared." The $63,000 range is an excellent buying area. There has been no concentrated redemption of ETF funds. We maintain our year-end target of $100,000.
RidaaXBT: The exhaustion of short positions after the leverage cleansing is complete will drive Bitcoin to a catastrophic rebound towards the $69,000-$70,000 range.
ZordXBT: The long lower shadow indicates unusually strong buying at low levels, showing signs of a bottom.
Killa: June 5th is a key cyclical pivot point that has been maintained for 19 months. If sentiment stabilizes after being extremely bearish and recovers the low of $65,000, the target will be the $68,000-$69,000 area.

Key data (as of 13:00 HKT on June 5)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

Bitcoin spot ETF: +$3.0468 million, the first net inflow after 13 days of net outflows.
Ethereum Spot ETF: +$19.3019 million, the first net inflow after 17 days of net outflows.
HYPE Spot ETF: +$12.1494 million
SOL Spot ETF: -$278,500
XRP Spot ETF: +$3.8344 million
Fear of Greed Index: 12 (Extreme Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: WLD, XRP, BTC, ETH, NEAR
Sector Performance: Cryptocurrencies fell across the board, with DePIN, L2, DeFi, AI, and RWA all plunging by 10%.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 244,041 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $1.146 billion, including $356 million in BTC liquidations, $292 million in ETH liquidations, and $49.71 million in SOL liquidations.

Today's Outlook

Binance will be upgrading its stock trading system on June 6, during which trading will be suspended.
0xPPL will cease trading functionality starting June 6th and will be completely shut down on June 30th.
Aave has applied to unfreeze $71 million worth of ETH; a hearing will be held on June 5th.
US May Non-Farm Payrolls Change (in thousands): Expected 85,000, Previous 115,000 (June 5, 20:30)
US May unemployment rate: expected 4.3%, previous value 4.3% (June 5, 20:30)
Opinion (OPN) will unlock approximately 32.09 million tokens, worth about $4.4 million, on June 5th.
Hwang In-hoon will meet with the chairman of LG Group on June 5.

The largest declines among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today were: Zcash down 43.1%, LAB down 36.3%, Venice Token down 21.1%, Cardano down 18.3%, and Ethena down 18.2%.