Analysis: Bitcoin's bottom may be around $53,600, but demand conditions remain "very unfavorable".

PANews reported on June 11th that, according to The Block, Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, stated that Bitcoin's bottom may be around $53,600, the current realized price, a level that has historically marked the bottom of bear markets multiple times. Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $62,150, about 9% above that level. However, demand conditions remain weak. CryptoQuant estimates that total demand decreased by 652,000 BTC last week, the largest weekly drop since January 2022. 30-day ETF demand growth has fallen to -74,000 BTC, the weakest level since ETFs were launched. Meanwhile, realized losses over the past 30 days totaled 187,000 BTC, far lower than the 400,000 BTC when it first fell below $60,000 in February and the 1.2 million BTC during the FTX crash in November 2022, indicating that capitulation selling has not yet reached levels.

Moreno stated that while the price level may indicate a bottom is near, a bull market requires a recovery in demand, a condition that is not yet reflected in the data. Until aggregate demand stabilizes, ETF flows recover, and realized losses reach their capitulation peak, the current price should be considered a candidate for a valuation bottom, rather than a confirmed cyclical bottom.

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Author: PA一线

This content is for market information only and is not investment advice.

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