PANews reported on June 17th that, according to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio has fallen to -20, a level that has appeared at the bottoms of cycles in 2015, 2018-19, and 2022-23. Historically, however, this signal is usually followed by several months of bottoming out rather than an immediate rebound. In 2015, the indicator remained in the bottom range for about five months, and in 2018-19 and 2022-23, it remained for about three months each.

Meanwhile, accumulation wallets absorbed approximately 125,000 BTC in the first half of June. Exchange reserves have decreased by about 80,000 BTC since February to approximately 2.71 million BTC, with whales withdrawing over 11,000 BTC from exchanges in the past day. Bitcoin's rebound from a low of $59,130 ​​to approximately $65,800 was primarily driven by the US-Iran agreement, rather than on-chain indicators. Today's Fed interest rate decision is the next test; the dot plot and Fed Chairman Warsh's comments on inflation will determine whether the rebound can continue.