PANews, June 22 – CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin’s long-term holder (LTH) realized supply is gradually approaching levels historically seen during bottom formations, currently at 12.17 million BTC. It had touched a cycle high of 12.42 million BTC in early June, more than doubling over the past year, indicating that coins are shifting toward a more resilient holder base. However, the current level remains below the capitulation phases of previous bear markets: the 2015 bottom was around 15 million BTC, 2018–2019 around 16 million BTC, and 2022–2023 around 19.7 million BTC. A level above 15 million BTC would serve as a stronger confirmation signal zone. Meanwhile, the pressure indicator representing final capitulation-style selling has not triggered a signal for 1,256 consecutive days — the longest streak on record — with the last occurrence in January 2023. This indicator is activated only when NUPL is negative and currently remains in a silent state.

Adler believes the current market shows a clear divergence: LTH supply is moving closer to bottom levels, but capitulation selling pressure signals have been absent for over three years. By historical standards, this is not a classic capitulation bottom, but rather a phase of holding and supply maturation. A true bottom confirmation requires two conditions: LTH realized supply rising above 15 million BTC, and the emergence of the first non-zero selling pressure signal (NUPL turning negative) in more than three years.