PANews June 25 news, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted that Strategy’s preferred stock MSTR has fallen 78% from its peak, while Bitcoin has fallen 51% from its peak. Strategy’s average cost basis for its 847,363 BTC holdings is $75,651, with a total cost of $64.1 billion. The current BTC price has fallen below this cost line for the first time since the 2022 bear market. The additional decline of MSTR relative to BTC has reached about 28 percentage points, near the upper bound of its historical range, but it has not yet touched the 89% drawdown extreme of the 2022 bottom. Meanwhile, Strategy’s buying strategy has clearly turned defensive: weekly BTC purchases have been cut by roughly two-thirds, and less than 11% of the $335.5 million raised through stock issuances has been used to purchase BTC, with the remainder transferred to USD reserves. At the end of May, Strategy also made its first net sale since 2022, selling 32 BTC to pay STRC dividends.

Adler pointed out that the main risk at present lies in BTC remaining below the $75,000 treasury cost line, which will block the financing channel of ATM offerings by compressing the MSTR premium. However, almost all of Strategy’s debt is in convertible bonds, with no margin call risk. The base case is the loss of marginal buyers rather than cascading liquidations. The true stress threshold lies in the company shifting from selling stock to systematically selling BTC itself to pay preferred stock dividends and debt interest.