Historical signals reappear: After Bitcoin reaches $120,000, how will the rotation script of altcoins unfold?

Bitcoin has surged to a record high of $123,000, entering a price discovery phase, while altcoins show stagnation but may soon follow a historical pattern of rebound.
Historical trends suggest altcoins could experience a 3-5 week rally window after Bitcoin's breakout, followed by consolidation and Bitcoin dominance recovery.
Key altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP show divergent trends: Ethereum's pullback lows are rising, Solana's momentum is stalling, and XRP surged post-US election.
Payment tokens (XRP, XLM, HBAR, etc.) and ISO20022-compliant "bank tokens" are currently leading the rotation.
Large-cap coins like BNB, LINK, ADA, TRX, and DOGE are potential rotation targets due to undervaluation or strong fundamentals.
Solana ecosystem tokens (e.g., BONK, PENGU) and Layer 1 clones (Sui, Aptos, AVAX) may gain traction if Solana attracts capital.
High performers like TAO (14x in 5 months) and PEPE (6.6x against BTC) highlight the importance of strong narratives during Bitcoin rallies.
Trading strategy focuses on blue-chip tokens, undervalued large caps, and strong narratives while avoiding small-cap risks.
Altcoin rallies may last 1-2 months; investors should monitor Bitcoin dominance and BTC pair activity to time exits.
A potential Bitcoin surge to $150,000 could trigger compensatory gains in top 20 altcoins, but rational positioning is crucial to avoid overexposure.

Author: VirtualBacon

Compiled by: Tim, PANews

PANews Note: The content of the article is only the author’s personal opinion and is not investment advice, DYOR.

Bitcoin hits all-time high of $123,000, but when will altcoins pull back?

I looked back at the past three Bitcoin breakouts to look for a pattern, and now the signal is finally reappearing.

What will happen to ETH, SOL, XRP and other mainstream currencies next?

Bitcoin is in the price discovery phase, but altcoin momentum has stagnated and large-cap coins have yet to start.

Let’s see what happens when the market breaks out?

Every time Bitcoin breaks out since mid-2023, altcoins have collectively rebounded:

$30,000 → $44,000
$45,000 → $71,000
$71,000 → $105,000 (after Trump’s victory)

After each breakthrough, altcoins will usher in a 3-5 week outbreak window, after which Bitcoin will enter a consolidation period, its dominance will rebound, and the gains of altcoins will be swallowed up.

Now, we are in a similar situation:

Bitcoin has broken through the resistance level of $107,000 and is currently rising to $123,000, and may hit the $150,000 mark.

If historical laws hold true, we are currently at the beginning of a new round of copycat season.

But be careful: this is not a half-year-long altcoin carnival season, but a short sprint.

Bitcoin dominance has not fallen below key levels, so this is not a full-blown alt season.

If Bitcoin dominance stops rising, altcoins will still rise. This is exactly what happened in the past two rounds.

The trends of the three major mainstream currencies, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP, showed obvious differentiation.

Ethereum lagged far behind Bitcoin at the end of 2023, but the bottom of each pullback since then has been gradually rising.

Solana led strongly in the early stages, but now its momentum is close to stagnating.

XRP initially performed weakly, but experienced explosive growth after the US election last year.

Signs of capital rotation are already obvious

An obvious phenomenon at present is that payment tokens have taken the lead:

XRP, XLM, HBAR, IOTA, ALGO, XDC

ISO20022-compliant “bank tokens” are gaining favor with investors

The large market cap coins that have not yet launched will be my focus:

BNB: The exchange rate against BTC is approaching the historical cycle low
LINK: Continues to lose money but fundamentals remain strong
ADA: Building a long-term double bottom pattern
TRX: Ready to go
DOGE: Always able to break out in Bitcoin breakout cycles

These are the core rotation targets.

If Solana starts to gain financial favor, its ecosystem tokens are worth paying attention to:

BONK has surged 89%, and PENGU has become the most popular meme in the crypto Twitter circle

Layer 1 clones: Sui, Aptos, AVAX (not launched since November 2023)

TAO and PEPE had outstanding performance in 2023:

TAO: Up 14 times in 5 months
PEPE: Up 6.6 times against BTC in 3 months

They show a strong narrative when Bitcoin rises. If a new "shining narrative" emerges, we need to act decisively.

What is my current trading plan?

Focus on blue chip tokens
Finding coins that have not yet been launched
Switch to a strong narrative when a leading project is launched
Temporarily avoid small-cap currencies, it is not worth the risk

Fund rotation is the key, don't blindly chase the rise.

Altcoins may have a strong cycle of 1 to 2 months, but history always warns: stop when you are ahead and don’t be greedy

If Bitcoin surges to $150,000, the top 20 currencies by market value may collectively rise, and some assets may see huge compensatory gains.

Operate rationally, hold strong tokens, and decisively abandon stagnant assets.

Keep a bullish mindset and don’t get caught up in the frenzy. Keep an eye on Bitcoin dominance and watch BTC trading pair activity.

Although the current period is not a frenzy cycle like that of 2017 and 2021, it is still a solid and reliable window period. Small-cap currencies will eventually rotate, but we need to wait for the right time.