As listed companies continue to hoard coins, BTC’s new high has arrived “as promised”.

As the financial markets generally paid attention to the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, Bitcoin broke through its previous high on May 22 during the closing hours of the U.S. stock market on July 9, setting a new all-time high of nearly $112,000 per coin (CMC data was $111,925.38), with a daily increase of nearly 3%.

Fed's June minutes signal rate cut

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting released on the same day also brought complex but suggestive information to the market.

The minutes showed that there were clear differences within the Fed on the outlook for monetary policy, which could be divided into three main camps:

• Mainstream camp: Most participants assessed that it might be appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate this year, but ruled out an immediate rate cut in July. They generally believed that the committee was "fully capable of waiting for a moment when the outlook for inflation and economic activity becomes clearer." The minutes pointed out that the upward pressure on inflation from tariffs may be temporary or moderate, that medium- and long-term inflation expectations remain stable, and that economic activity and the labor market may weaken somewhat.
• Hawkish camp: A few participants believed that the target range for the federal funds rate should not be lowered this year, noting that "recent inflation data continue to exceed the Committee's 2% objective."
• Dove camp: A few participants (Fed mouthpiece Nick Timiraos suggested that this might include Fed Governors Waller and Bowman) indicated that if data developments were in line with their expectations, they would be willing to consider lowering the target range for the policy rate at the next meeting.

Despite internal differences, the signal that "most participants assessed that a rate cut might be appropriate this year" undoubtedly strengthened market expectations for future liquidity easing, which is a positive macro catalyst for risky assets such as Bitcoin.

Long-term Bitcoin holders hold a 15-year high

This breakthrough of Bitcoin is not without roots. The latest on-chain data from ARK Invest and Glassnode show that there is a strong "ballast stone" force in the Bitcoin market - long-term holders (LTHs).

ARK Invest's latest Bitcoin Monthly Report points out that the total amount of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has reached 74% of the total supply, a record high in the past 15 years. This strongly suggests that experienced investors have a firm belief in the market and strong bullish expectations. They choose to continue to hoard Bitcoin rather than sell it when the price rises, providing strong support for the market.

Glassnode data also confirms this trend. In the past five years, the balance of Bitcoin on exchanges has dropped sharply twice, and each drop was followed by a significant increase in Bitcoin prices. Interestingly, the balance of Bitcoin on exchanges has been steadily declining since July 2024. This shows that investors are withdrawing Bitcoin from trading platforms to private wallets for long-term holding, reducing market selling pressure, and if history repeats itself, Bitcoin's bull run has further room.

Although the ARK Invest report also mentioned that the MVRV momentum indicator, which measures market sentiment in the second quarter, showed a decline in on-chain capital flows, which may indicate a cooling of short-term market enthusiasm, the firm stance of long-term holders provides a solid foundation for Bitcoin prices, making it more resilient in the face of short-term fluctuations.

Bitcoin's "bull flag" breakthrough points to higher goals

Several well-known analysts are also optimistic about Bitcoin's upside potential from a technical perspective.

According to TradingShot analysts, since bottoming out in November 2022, Bitcoin prices have been in a clear upward channel, which is highly consistent with the Fibonacci channel that has been tracking Bitcoin price movements since 2013. Analysts believe that Bitcoin has converted the previous "bull flag" top into support, which is a "strong bullish signal", and the price continues to remain above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $106,750.

TradingShot further predicts that the breakout from this “bull flag” technically points to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension line, with a target price of $168,500.

In addition, well-known trader Zerohedge pointed out on the X platform that if Bitcoin can follow its fractal pattern with the M2 money supply, then once the current consolidation period ends, the price of Bitcoin will enter a parabolic rise. This potential correlation between macro liquidity and Bitcoin prices adds more optimistic tone to the current market.

Glassnode compared historical cycle data and found that the current cycle has similarities with the bull markets in 2017 and 2021. In both cycles, Bitcoin prices started a parabolic rise at a similar time point and lasted for nearly a year. This suggests that if the historical pattern repeats itself, Bitcoin still has huge room for growth.

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital also pointed out that if Bitcoin follows its historical pattern in 2020, the price expansion in this cycle may only last a few months, and its price may peak in October, which is about 550 days away from the Bitcoin halving event in April 2024.

Bitcoin's record high is the result of multiple factors, including macro-favorable factors, institutional adoption, and listed companies hoarding coins. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations have injected ample liquidity into the market, and the firm holdings of long-term holders have built a solid price bottom. Judging from the current market momentum, its upward momentum is far from over, and the second half of the year may usher in a stronger acceleration sprint.