Web3 AI Daily Review (2024/12/16)

Market Conditions
- Macro Environment: The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting is in focus, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in December. However, future rate cuts may be more cautious. Over 25 central banks, including Japan and the UK, will also hold meetings, potentially causing market fluctuations.
- Web3 Field: Digital asset investment products saw $3.2 billion in inflows last week, marking the 10th consecutive week of growth. Bitcoin and Ethereum led with $2 billion and $1 billion inflows, respectively. Altcoins like XRP, Polkadot, and Litecoin also saw significant inflows.
Hot Events
- Macro: A third U.S. state is set to introduce "strategic bitcoin reserve" legislation, with expectations that at least 10 states will follow.
- Web3: Bitcoin hit a record high of $106,500, reinforcing its "digital gold" status. MicroStrategy plans to continue buying Bitcoin even above $100,000.
Hot Topic Narratives
- Pudgy Penguins NFT floor price surged to nearly $140,000 ahead of the PENGU token launch. The NFT market rebounded, with a 10.2% increase in total market value and an 87.5% spike in 24-hour trading volume.
Hot Projects
- $AGENCY: An AI agent built on the Eliza framework for sentiment analysis on tokens, wallets, and Twitter. 10% of tokens are donated to ai16z DAO.
Sector Rotation
- Data from Dune and Dot Labs highlights trending topics and sector performance, though specific details are not provided in the text.

(Note: Image descriptions and sources are omitted as per formatting rules.)

1. Attention Value-Market Key Points

1. Market conditions

(1) Macro environment:

l The Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is approaching, and the market is paying attention to the future policy direction and the pace of interest rate cuts

The economic focus this week is on the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the release of its interest rate decision and quarterly economic forecast on Thursday. The market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut in December, but the real focus is on the Fed's future policy direction, and it is expected that the rate cut will be more cautious next year. In addition, as many as 25 central banks, including Japan, the United Kingdom and Sweden, will hold interest rate meetings in the same week, and these key decisions may trigger market fluctuations. Luis Buenaventura, head of cryptocurrency at GCash, pointed out that since the Fed's interest rate cut expectations have been digested by the market in advance, the direct impact of this policy adjustment on cryptocurrency prices is limited.

(2) Web3 field:

l Digital asset investment products continue to flow into the market and optimism is high

As of December 16, Coinshares' latest weekly report showed that digital asset investment products continued to see capital inflows last week, totaling $3.2 billion, the 10th consecutive week of net inflows. So far this year, the total inflow of digital assets has reached $44.5 billion. Among them, the total inflow of Bitcoin investment products was $2 billion, and the total inflow since the US election reached $11.5 billion; Ethereum received capital inflows for 7 consecutive weeks, totaling $1 billion, and the cumulative inflow in 7 weeks reached $3.7 billion. In addition, due to the market's expectations for US-listed ETFs, the capital inflow of the altcoin XRP reached $145 million, while Polkadot and Litecoin attracted $3.7 million and $2.2 million respectively. All regions showed a positive trend of capital inflows, especially the United States, Switzerland, Germany and Brazil, which recorded total inflows of $3.1 billion, $36 million, $33 million and $25 million respectively, showing the market's broad optimism about digital assets.

2. Hot events

(1) Macro environment:

The third U.S. state will initiate legislation on "strategic bitcoin reserves" and more states are expected to follow in the future

Dennis Porter, CEO of Satoshi Action Fund, revealed that a third state in the United States will officially launch "strategic bitcoin reserve" legislation this week, but he did not disclose which state it was. Porter said that he expects at least 10 states to introduce bitcoin reserve bills, and emphasized that this trend will not stop, and more and more similar bills will be introduced in the future. He believes that at least 10 states will participate in this process.

(2) Web3 field:

Bitcoin price breaks through $106,500 to hit a record high, further consolidating its status as “digital gold”

On December 16, the price of Bitcoin broke through $106,500, setting a new all-time high. At the same time, the ratio of Bitcoin to gold also hit a record high, further consolidating its status as "digital gold". In addition, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor said that even if the spot price of Bitcoin exceeds $100,000, the company still plans to continue to increase its holdings. This may trigger passive funds to flow into MicroStrategy's shares, making it easier for the company to raise funds to buy Bitcoin. Although the central bank meeting this week has limited impact on the crypto market, Bitcoin is still completely driven by market sentiment; if the Federal Reserve adopts an extremely dovish attitude, it is still possible to provide further momentum for Bitcoin to rise.

3. Hot topic narrative

l Pudgy Penguins NFT floor price soars, PENGU coin issuance is approaching, triggering market enthusiasm

As the PENGU token issuance approaches, the floor price of Pudgy Penguins NFT continues to rise and is currently close to $140,000. The NFT market has also ushered in a long-awaited recovery. Data shows that the total market value of the top NFT series on the entire network has exceeded $10 billion, with a current market value of $10,450,232,468, an increase of 10.2% in 24 hours; at the same time, the transaction volume of the entire network NFT series has reached $71,146,166 in the past 24 hours, an increase of 87.5%. According to data from Whales Market, the over-the-counter price of the PENGU token is $0.053, combined with its total supply of 88.888 billion, which makes the market value of PENGU reach $4.711 billion. In addition, Abstract Chain, the L2 network under Igloo, the parent company of Pudgy Penguins, also announced that it will launch the mainnet in January next year, and there is a market expectation of issuing tokens. On December 13, OpenSea, the leader in the NFT market, changed its official account avatar to a Pudgy Penguins NFT-related picture, adding heat to the issuance of the fat penguin token. Under this dissemination effect, crypto players are full of expectations for the wealth-creating effect of the PENGU token.