Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Amid a complex macroeconomic environment, the Federal Reserve's policy decision this week has become the focus of the market. The market widely expects the Fed to implement a 25 basis point rate cut, with a probability as high as 88.6% to 95%. However, institutions such as Bank of America believe that given the structural cooling of the labor market characterized by "low hiring, low turnover, and rising layoffs," the Fed may send a "hawkish rate cut" signal, meaning a rate cut that hints at the possibility of future policy tightening. This uncertainty has led to fluctuations in US Treasury yields, while Goldman Sachs, through indicators such as Las Vegas consumer data, is warning of early signs of an economic recession.

In the commodities market, spot silver has performed exceptionally well, breaking through $60/ounce for the first time to reach a record high, with a year-to-date gain of over 100%, significantly outperforming gold, and the gold-silver ratio falling to its lowest level since 2021. However, Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, predicts this trend may reverse, believing that gold's rise as a safe-haven asset will subside, while risk assets such as Bitcoin will regain activity. Meanwhile, tech giant SpaceX is planning the largest IPO in history, targeting a valuation of $1.5 trillion. ARK predicts its value could reach $2.5 trillion by 2030, primarily driven by its Starlink business. Looking ahead, the market's reliance on macroeconomic data is increasing, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's statements will provide crucial guidance for policy direction in 2026.

Bitcoin's recent price rebound to a three-week high of $94,625 has triggered FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) sentiment in the market, but analysts are divided. Santiment data shows a surge in bullish sentiment on social media, but such peaks are often contrarian indicators. Investor "NoLimit" believes this rally is "pure manipulation" rather than organic market behavior. From a technical analysis perspective, several analysts have identified key price levels. Ali warns that Bitcoin has historically faced downward pressure around the FOMC meeting, and while a rebound to $100,000 is possible, there is still a risk of a pullback to $80,000. AlphaBTC maintains its target of $97-98k, but emphasizes the need to hold $91.5k. Man of Bitcoin points out that the price has touched the upper trendline of an ascending wedge, and a breakout could push it towards $96,962. Michaël van de Poppe further points out that the divergence between Bitcoin's performance and that of the Nasdaq suggests significant upside potential, with a possible return to the $110,000-$115,000 range.

However, bearish voices also exist. Analyst Astronomer has shorted at the 92.7k price level, and historically, 6 out of 7 FOMC meetings have led to Bitcoin pullbacks. Standard Chartered Bank lowered its 2025 Bitcoin price forecast from $200,000 to $100,000, citing slowing ETF inflows. On the other hand, on-chain data provides a deeper perspective. Murphy's analysis using the BTC Profitable Supply Percentage (PSIP) model points out that PSIP has recently rebounded to 67.7%, but is still fluctuating in the key 65%-70% range. If PSIP falls below 50%, a bear market bottom may have appeared, currently estimated at $62,000. Cathie Wood believes that continued institutional participation is reducing Bitcoin's volatility and may prevent a historic price crash.

Ethereum has shown relative strength, with its price rebounding to a three-week high of nearly $3,400. According to analyst Mercury, Ethereum has broken through local resistance and recovered its high-timeframe trendline, becoming the current market's "clear leader." Analyst Man of Bitcoin points out that ETH has micro-support at $3,201 and may continue to test the $3,417-$3,554 area. IncomeSharks considers $3,500 as the "final hurdle" for confirming Ethereum's bullish trend. Glassnode co-founder Negentropic believes that Ethereum is "quietly brewing" its next breakout, having regained its position above the 50-day moving average, with momentum continuing to rise. Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua also stated that against the backdrop of expected interest rate cuts and the trend of financial blockchain adoption, Ethereum is significantly undervalued.

In the altcoin sector, Meme's Pippin experienced a different trajectory, hitting a new all-time high and surpassing a market capitalization of $330 million, with a single-day increase of up to 90%. Additionally, the new token HumidiFi (WET) performed exceptionally well after listing on multiple exchanges, including OKX, with its price briefly exceeding $0.27, representing a more than 290% increase from its public price of $0.069.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT, December 10)

(Data source: GMGN, CoinAnk, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $92,591 (-1.05% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $52.73 billion.

• Ethereum: $3,324 (-0.2% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $34.31 billion.

• Fear of Greed Index: 25 (Fear)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.2 sat/vB, ETH: 0.04 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 58.46%, ETH 12.2%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, ETH, BTC, SOL, G

• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 50.79% / 49.21%

• Sector Performance: The AI sector led the gains, rising over 5.9%, while the Meme sector climbed 5.3%.

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 95,310 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $380 million. This included $153 million in BTC liquidations, $117 million in ETH liquidations, and $13.6 million in SOL liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of December 9)

• Bitcoin ETFs: +$152 million, with Fidelity FBTC leading the way with a net inflow of $199 million.

• Ethereum ETF: +$178 million, with Fidelity FETH leading the net inflow at $51.4727 million.

• Solana ETF: +$16.54 million

• XRP ETF: +$8.73 million

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance will delist several USDT-margined perpetual contracts, including SKATEUSDT and REIUSDT, on December 10th.

• Binance Alpha will list Talus Network (US)

• U.S. District Judge Paul Engelmayer will deliver his verdict on Do Kwon on December 11.

• US Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper limit) to December 10: Previous value 4%, expected value 3.75% (03:00 on December 11)

• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell holds a monetary policy press conference (December 11, 03:30).

• Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella will visit India from December 10 to 12 and meet with government officials.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: MemeCore up 13.2%, ASI Alliance up 9.7%, Pudgy Penguins up 9.6%, Ultima up 9.3%, and Cardano up 8.1%.

5. Hot News

• Changpeng Zhao: The crypto market may be entering a "supercycle," and the "four-year cycle" for Bitcoin may no longer apply.

• A whale withdrew another 13.44 million ASTER tokens from Binance, after previously selling at a high price and incurring a loss of $34.5 million.

• Strive launches $500 million SATA stock ATM funding plan, with some net proceeds to be used to purchase Bitcoin.

• Shares of Bitcoin treasury firm Twenty One fell 20% after its merger with Cantor Equity.

• The "1011 Insider Whale" added over 10,000 ETH to its long positions in the early morning, and its current unrealized profit is approximately $17.4 million.

• Octra will hold a $20 million public token sale on Sonar on December 18th, valuing the company at $200 million.

• Bitwise's top 10 crypto index funds have officially listed and are trading on the NYSE Arca as ETFs.

• CoinGecko: Publicly traded companies hold over 5% of the total Bitcoin supply, with Strategy accounting for 3%.

• HASHKEY disclosed IPO details: plans to raise up to HK$1.67 billion, and is expected to list on December 17.