(18/52) Weekly Market Insights: Technical or bottoming out and rebounding?

  • Market Overview: US stocks and Bitcoin rose by 4.59% and 10.12% last week, driven by positive US-China trade signals and strong corporate earnings. This week's key events include US Treasury refinancing, Q1 GDP data, employment reports, and Trump's speech, potentially increasing market volatility.

  • Macro Outlook:

    • US durable goods orders grew 9.2% in March,远超预期的2%.
    • Market closely watches US Treasury Refunding announcement to gauge bond issuance scale and fiscal policy impact.
    • Trump softened stance on Fed Chair Powell; 91% chance of unchanged rates at next FOMC meeting.
  • Upcoming Economic Events:

    • April 29: US Treasury refinancing estimates.
    • April 30: Trump’s 100-day rally, US Q1 GDP, core PCE data.
    • May 1: ISM Manufacturing PMI.
    • May 2: Non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate.
  • Crypto Market Developments:

    • Fed withdrew crypto risk guidance for banks; SEC met with Ondo and Grayscale on tokenization and ETF collateralization.
    • Charles Schwab plans crypto spot trading within 12 months.
    • DeFi Development Corp filed to raise $1B for SOL acquisitions.
    • Tether, SoftBank, and Bitfinex launched Twenty One Capital, starting with 42K BTC.
    • Coinbase partnered with PayPal to promote PYUSD stablecoin.
  • Layer 1 & 2 Updates:

    • Hyperliquid expanded to 21 permissionless validator nodes.
    • Initia mainnet launched with $670M INIT token valuation.
    • Polygon’s Agglayer Breakout program to airdrop tokens to POL stakers.
  • Dapps & Governance:

    • IO.net’s new CEO announced Bare Metal Kubernetes for improved performance.
    • ZetaChain added Avalanche support for cross-chain interoperability.
    • Fuel Network initiated a $1M FUEL token buyback.
    • Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade expected May 7; CME plans XRP futures launch.
  • Token Unlocks:

    • Notable unlocks: OP (1.99% supply) on April 30, SUI (2.71%) on May 1, ARB (1.95%) on May 16.
Summary

Hot News

  • The White House continues to release optimistic signals about the US-China trade agreement. US stocks and Bitcoin rose by 4.59% and 10.12% respectively last week. At the same time, about 75% of companies announced better-than-expected quarterly financial reports, further pushing up the overall US stock market. The recovery of short-term investor risk appetite also drove up Bitcoin prices. This week, there will be a number of key events at the macro level, including intensive corporate financial report releases, the US Treasury Department's refinancing announcement, Q1 GDP data, employment report, and President Trump's speech, and market volatility may intensify.

Macro Outlook

  • U.S. durable goods orders grew 9.2% in March, significantly exceeding market expectations of 2%.

  • The market is also closely watching the upcoming announcement of the U.S. Treasury Refunding to assess the actual scale of bond issuance, investor demand and the target amount of funds in the Treasury TGA account. The relevant information will help to judge the government's fiscal policy strategy and its potential impact on the market.

  • Trump said he had no intention of replacing Fed Chairman Powell, and his tone has become friendlier than a few days ago. The market currently expects a 91% chance of keeping interest rates unchanged at the next FOMC meeting (less than 9 days from now).

Upcoming economic calendars include:

  • Tuesday, April 29 at 3:00 a.m.: U.S. Treasury refinancing estimates

  • April 30 (Wednesday) 6:00 a.m.: President Trump holds a rally in Michigan to celebrate his 100th day in office

  • April 30 (Wednesday) 8:30 pm: U.S. Treasury refinancing announcement

  • April 30 (Wednesday) 8:30 pm: US preliminary Q1 GDP

  • April 30 (Wednesday) 10:00 p.m.: U.S. core PCE price index, personal income and personal spending for March

  • May 1 (Thursday) 10:00 pm: US April ISM Manufacturing PMI

  • May 2 (Friday) 8:30 p.m.: U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for April

Cryptocurrency Market Overview

  • The Federal Reserve withdrew its guidance on banks' activities with crypto assets and stablecoins, which pointed out that cryptocurrencies could pose potential risks to financial stability and payment systems.

  • The SEC’s cryptocurrency task force met with Ondo to discuss proposals to tokenize U.S. securities and with Grayscale to discuss matters related to cryptocurrency ETF collateralization.

  • Paul Atkin was formally sworn in as Chairman of the U.S. SEC .

  • World Liberty Finance has reportedly signed a letter of intent with the Pakistan Cryptography Council (PCC) to promote blockchain innovation in Pakistan.

  • Charles Schwab, the largest brokerage firm with $110.33 trillion in AUM, announced plans to launch cryptocurrency spot trading capabilities within the next 12 months.

  • DeFi Development Corp has filed an application with the U.S. SEC to issue up to $1 billion in securities to acquire SOL. The company has recently spent $48.2 million to purchase 65,305 SOLs, increasing its total holdings to 317,273 SOLs.

  • SOL Strategies obtained $500 million in financing from ATW Partners using convertible notes and used the funds to acquire SOL.

  • Tether, SoftBank, Bitfinex and Cantor (investment bank chaired by Brandon Lutnick) jointly announced the establishment of a new company , Twenty One Capital , with Strike CEO Jack Mallers as the new company's CEO. The company started with more than 42,000 Bitcoins and plans to raise $585 million through convertible bonds and equity to purchase more Bitcoins.

  • Coinbase has partnered with Paypal to accelerate the promotion of PYUSD and provide a 1:1 exchange service between PYUSD and the US dollar on the platform.

  • Circle announced the launch ofCircle Payment Network (CPN), providing 24/7 real-time settlement services for stablecoins such as USDC and EURC to institutional clients.

Layer 1 and Layer 2 Public Chains

  • Hyperliquid announced that the number of its validator nodes will be expanded to 21 permissionless nodes , and the top 21 nodes with the most stake will form an active node group. All active and inactive nodes are required to self-delegate 10,000 HYPE tokens and lock them up for one year.

  • The Initiamainnet is now online, and the INIT token is issued simultaneously, with a current valuation of approximately US$670 million.

  • Sonic Labs launched the FeeM Treasury , which will direct 90% of the transaction fees of assets such as wS, USDC, USDT, EURC, WETH, and WBTC to the FeeM Treasury, which will be used for liquidity incentives and protocol integration in the future.

  • Polygon launches the Agglayer Breakout program to incubate projects built on Agglayer. Successfully graduated projects will airdrop 5% to 15% of their token supply to POL stakers.

  • Everclear, a cross-chain clearing and settlement protocol, is now live on the Solana mainnet.

Dapps

  • IO.net CTO Gaurav officially took over as the new CEO of IO.net. The new CEO said that many new products will be launched in the next few months. At the same time, IO.net released Bare Metal Kubernetes , which eliminated the virtual machine and the middle abstraction layer, and improved the performance and latency of IO network GPU/CPU machines.

  • OfficialTrumpMeme announced that the top 220 TRUMP holders will be invited to a dinner with President Trump on May 22, and the top 25 holders will be invited to an exclusive reception before the dinner.

  • ZetaChain now supports Avalanche , enabling seamless cross-chain interoperability with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.

  • Morpho is officially launched on HyperEVM , with the front-end operated by Felix Protocol and HyperBeat respectively.

  • LayerZero launches vApps , allowing developers to build applications through the Rust development framework to achieve higher performance, verifiable logic and seamless cross-chain interoperability.

  • Virtuals Protocol has introduced a new token issuance mechanism, Genesis Launches , which determines the token quota through a 24-hour points bidding period. If the financing target is not reached, no tokens will be minted and all VIRTUAL tokens and points will be fully refunded.

  • Euler Finance launched the Vault Swap feature, allowing users to exchange directly between vaults without withdrawing assets.

  • Ether.fi announced plans to launch a non-custodial application DefiBank , which will provide seamless liquidity staking, deposit and withdrawal services, and credit card functions. The team predicts that revenue will grow by 150% to 269% in 2025, and will increase the revenue repurchase ratio from 5% to 25%.

  • Helium has partnered with AT&T to help AT&T users access the Helium hotspot network.

  • Walrus, a storage platform on Sui, announced a partnership with LINE FRIENDS to store data such as ROOM game character design, game assets, and AI models on the Walrus platform.

  • OpenServ, the interoperability layer for AI agents, frameworks, and chains, will soon support the Model Context Protocol (MCP) to facilitate the connection of agents with external tools, data sources, and systems.

  • Fantasy.top launched the Clout points system, which is similar to Kaito's Yap mechanism. Clout rewards users with high interaction and high-quality content contributions on X.

  • Zora, a social platform built on Base, has issued its ZORA token with an FDV valuation of US$175 million.

  • Pyse launched a tokenized electric fleet on Polygon, where investors can hold partial ownership of the electric fleet through on-chain tokens and earn revenue from delivery and takeaway rental services in Dubai.

Governance/Project Updates

  • Fuel Network will conduct a buyback program of FUEL tokens worth $1 million from April 22 to May 22.

  • Popular cryptocurrency mobile app DefiApp will integrate Hyperliquid this week.

  • Frax Finance will rename FXS to FRAX on April 29 and use it as the gas token for Fraxtal's second-layer network. In the future, when Fraxtal is transformed into a public chain, FRAX will also become its pledge asset.

  • Worldcoin is rumored to announce the launch of a new social media platform on April 30.

  • Sonic Summit will be held in Vienna from May 6 to 8.

  • Ethereum is expected to implement the Pectra upgrade on May 7.

  • CME Group announced that it plans to launch an XRP futures product on May 19 after regulatory review.

  • Kaito Connect is expected to be upgraded in the next two weeks, after which sKAITO holders will be able to participate in the token reward distribution of the issuance platform project.

  • Pareto will launch USP in May, a stablecoin backed by private credit.

  • Fluid plans to launch DEX v2 , which will introduce singleton contracts to improve capital efficiency, reduce gas fees, support open liquidity pool deployment, and smart debt and collateral mechanisms with range orders. The upgrade is expected to be implemented between June and July.

  • Flare Protocol revealed that it will introduce XRP re-staking functionality through Firelight.

  • Fetch.ai is about to launch Agentverse Launchpad , a memecoin issuance platform focused on AI agents.

  • Immutable announced that the AAA game "Might and Magic Fates" in cooperation with Ubisoft will be officially launched in 2025.

Token Unlock

  • GRASS will be unlocked on April 30th and will account for 1.35% of the token supply.

  • OP will be unlocked on April 30th, accounting for 1.99% of the token supply.

  • SUI will be unlocked on May 1st, accounting for 2.71% of the token supply.

  • ENA will be unlocked on May 2, accounting for 1.69% of the token supply.

  • JTO will be unlocked on May 7, accounting for 3.54% of the token supply.

  • MOVE will be unlocked on May 9th, accounting for 2.04% of the token supply.

  • IO will be unlocked on May 11th, accounting for 2.00% of the token supply.

  • APTOS will be unlocked on May 12th, accounting for 1.83% of the token supply.

  • IMX will be unlocked on May 16th, accounting for 1.35% of the token supply.

  • ARB will be unlocked on May 16, accounting for 1.95% of the token supply.

  • VANA will be unlocked on May 16th, accounting for 1.47% of the token supply.

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Author: ChainUp Investment

This article represents the views of PANews columnist and does not represent PANews' position or legal liability.

The article and opinions do not constitute investment advice

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