Trading Moments: Silver breaks through $75, RMB surpasses 7.0; Bitcoin awaits a crucial test of $23.7 billion in options trading to determine its direction.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

The Christmas holidays led to a significant contraction in liquidity across major global financial markets. US stocks, bonds, and various futures contracts were closed, and stock markets in many European countries also shut down. However, key asset pricing did not halt. Regarding exchange rates , the RMB has accelerated its appreciation since August, with the offshore RMB briefly breaking the 7.0 mark on December 25th, the first time in over a year. Industrial Securities pointed out that this round of appreciation is not solely driven by a weakening dollar, but rather reflects the endogenous momentum of capital repatriation and increased demand for foreign exchange settlement. Under the combined influence of the "push of dollar easing" and the "pull of capital repatriation," the RMB appreciation may still be in its early stages and is expected to boost risk appetite in the equity market. Furthermore, the precious metals market continued its strong performance, with silver breaking through $75/ounce , rising for the fifth consecutive trading day, and its year-to-date gain approaching 161%. Gold also briefly broke through $4530/ounce, setting a new historical high. Looking ahead, market forecasts are generally optimistic: Wyckoff predicts a target price of $4,600 for gold by the end of the year; renowned economist Jim Rickards even predicts that gold prices could reach $10,000 by the end of 2026, while silver prices could touch $200. Meanwhile, influenced by supply shortages and potential tariff threats, LME copper prices have historically broken through $12,000 per ton, and Citibank predicts it could rise to $15,000 in a bull market scenario.

Against this backdrop, the only publicly offered silver futures product in China— the Guotai Junan Silver Futures Securities Investment Fund (LOF) —became the focus of the market. The fund's secondary market price once traded at a premium of 45% to its net asset value per unit of 1.9278 yuan, reaching 2.804 yuan. After raising the subscription limit from 100 yuan to 500 yuan on December 19th to attract arbitrage funds, it was urgently suspended from trading on December 26th and announced that the limit would be lowered back to 100 yuan from the 29th. Upon resumption of trading, the fund immediately hit its daily limit down. By the time trading resumed, the trading volume reached 260 million yuan, and the premium rate had fallen back to approximately 29.64% . Bi Mengran, a researcher at Gesang Fund, pointed out that the direct cause of the price decline was the concentrated realization of arbitrage funds through the "off-exchange subscription—T+2 on-exchange sale" method.

The Bitcoin market has been consolidating within a range of $85,000 to $90,000, a consolidation largely attributed by analysts to the upcoming annual options settlement on December 26th. This settlement has a notional value of $23 billion to $28.5 billion, and analysts generally expect market pressure to ease after settlement, potentially leading to a directional breakout. However, opinions remain divided on future price movements. On one hand, analysts like Michaël van de Poppe believe that the commodity market has accumulated significant momentum, and liquidity may shift to other areas. With easing macroeconomic conditions, Bitcoin is expected to break through the $90,000 resistance level and move towards $100,000. On-chain data analyst Murphy points out that around $87,000, 670,000 BTC have accumulated, forming a strong support zone. Analyst Mark is also bullish, believing the price will reach $91,000.

On the other hand, analysts led by Lennart Snyder and Ted are cautious, believing that the price may need to retest the support around $85,000 before a valid breakout. Analysts from Kapoor Kshitiz and CoinDesk both point out that Bitcoin traded in the $70,000 to $80,000 range for only 28 days, indicating weak support; while it remained in the $30,000 to $50,000 range for nearly 200 days, showing stronger support. If a pullback occurs in the future, the $70,000 to $80,000 range may need more time to consolidate. Looking ahead, BTSE COO Jeff Mei believes that if the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026, Bitcoin may fall to $70,000, but if "implicit quantitative easing" continues, it could potentially reach $92,000 to $98,000 driven by institutional funds. Furthermore, CryptoQuant researcher Axel Adler Jr. warns that Bitcoin's monthly RSI has fallen to 56.5, close to the 4-year moving average of 58.7; a break below 55 could lead to a deeper correction. Ali Charts states that it takes approximately 1064 days for Bitcoin to rise from its bottom to its top, and about 364 days to fall from its top to the next bottom. If historical patterns continue, the next bottom may appear in October 2026, with an estimated price of around $37,500, consistent with the historical average 80% retracement.

Ethereum continues to fluctuate between $2,700 and $3,000, without a clear direction. Ted believes ETH needs one of two conditions to become volatile: either it needs to regain the $3,000 mark, or it needs to retrace to the $2,700-$2,800 range. Analyst Kapoor Kshitiz observed that since November 21, large investors have accumulated 4.8 million ETH to defend their average holding cost of $2,796. If this cost line is breached, the next major on-chain support level could be close to $2,300. Jeff Mei of BTSE predicts that Ethereum's price outlook is closely linked to macroeconomic policies and could fluctuate between $2,400 (if the Fed pauses rate cuts) and $3,600 (if "hidden QE" continues). CryptoBullet points out that ETH's current price movement is mimicking the market conditions of 2022. If the current support level is breached, the price may fall to the $2,200-$2,400 range before potentially rebounding to near the 200-day moving average. Despite the uncertainty in the short term, long-term bulls such as Yi Lihua, founder of Trend Research, have regarded the current stage as a bottoming range and plan to continue investing $1 billion to buy on dips, betting on a major bull market in 2026.

While mainstream crypto assets are consolidating, analyst Axel Bitblaze believes that if Bitcoin is currently in a mid-term correction rather than at the top of a cycle, it will create a more favorable environment for altcoins to rise, and some high-quality projects may even reach new all-time highs during this period.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT on December 26)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

Bitcoin: $89,036 (down 4.85% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $32.77 billion.
Ethereum: $2,973 (year-to-date -10.91%), daily spot trading volume $15.8 billion.
Fear of Greed Index: 20 (Extreme Fear)
Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei
Market share: BTC 59.1%, ETH 12%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: 0G, ZBT, XRP, BTC, ETH
24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 49.34% / 50.66%
Sector Performance: Most crypto stocks declined, with the NFT sector falling over 7%, while only the AI and SocialFi sectors remained relatively resilient.
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 84,780 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $181 million. This included $73.65 million in BTC liquidations, $24.97 million in ETH liquidations, and $10.3 million in SOL liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of December 24)

Bitcoin ETF: -$175 million, marking the fifth consecutive day of net outflows.
Ethereum ETF: -$52.7049 million
Solana ETF: +$1.48 million
XRP ETF: +$11.93 million

4. Today's Outlook

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: pippin up 8.4%, Bitcoin Cash up 5.9%, MYX Finance up 5.9%, World Liberty Financial up 5.3%, and Curve DAO up 5%.