Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

The global macro market is in the midst of a violent storm triggered by geopolitical games, fiscal crises, and the convergence of industrial cycles, with risk aversion and speculative frenzy coexisting. Following the breakdown of congressional budget negotiations due to the ICE shooting in the US, Polymarket data shows that the probability of a US government shutdown before January 31st has surged to 79%. This, coupled with the Trump administration's tariffs and threats to purchase the islands of Canada and Greenland, and the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln to the Middle East to address the situation with Iran, has led to a peak in global "credit devaluation" trading. Spot gold broke through the $5,000 mark for the first time in history, rising over 2.3% intraday to a high of $5,106, with Bank of America aggressively predicting it will reach $6,000 by the spring of 2026. Spot silver also broke through $109, reaching a new historical high, driven by rigid demand from the AI ​​and solar energy industries, with institutions bullish on it to $120.

In the currency market, expectations for a "Plaza Accord 2.0" of coordinated US-Japan intervention in the currency market have surged. The New York Fed's unusual "inquiry" action led to short covering in the yen, causing the USD/JPY exchange rate to fall by over 1% to a low of 153. Meanwhile, the South Korean market moved independently, with the KOSDAQ index surging 6%, primarily driven by explosive growth in the semiconductor industry. Driven by AI demand, the global supply of memory chips is extremely tight. Samsung Electronics raised NAND flash memory prices by over 100% in the first quarter and plans to further increase prices in the second quarter. The DDR4 spot premium reached a high of 172%. Goldman Sachs therefore maintained its "buy" rating on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, noting that server ODM revenue has seen 13 consecutive months of high growth, indicating the establishment of a supercycle in the memory industry. Regarding US stocks, earnings reports from tech giants such as Microsoft and Apple are due this week, but market sentiment is divided. Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone and trader Peter Brandt both recommend shorting US stocks and the US dollar, believing that US assets have reached their peak and are about to decline. Goldman Sachs strategists, while optimistic about Asia, also warn that global stock markets have not corrected in a long time, and geopolitical risks may be the trigger for a correction.

Bitcoin closed the week with a bearish candle, falling over 7% and finding support around $86,000. Matrixport points out that BTC has broken below the key 21-week moving average, a key bull-bear dividing line, and the market shows no signs of reversal. Technical analysts are generally pessimistic. Peter Brandt confirmed the formation of a bearish channel and issued a sell signal. EliZ believes that if it falls below $86,000/$85,800, the price will seek liquidity around $84,500 to $85,000. Daan Crypto Trades points out that $84,000 to $85,000 will be an important support level in the near future. Tai Bai analyzes that the weekly chart shows a bearish engulfing pattern, and if it breaks below the trend line, it could fall to $70,000 or even $60,000. Roman continues to be bearish to $76,000. Rekt Capital warns that if it breaks below the bottom of the macro triangle at $82,000, the downward trend will accelerate. Murphy also emphasizes that a break below the $87,000-$88,000 range will damage the confidence of long-term holders, with key support at $82,000. Despite this, bulls haven't given up hope. A Coinbase survey shows that 71% of institutional investors believe BTC is undervalued between $85,000 and $95,000. Astronomer maintains a bullish weekly outlook and has already entered long positions at $86,000. Sykodelic points out a gap at $89,500 on the CME and that liquidity in the $86,000 area has been absorbed. Castillo Trading believes that the return of spot buying on Binance is the only signal for a market rebound. Placeholder partner Chris Burniske has developed a tiered buying plan, focusing on buying opportunities at $80,000, $74,000, and $58,000, stating that he will continue to add to his positions if there is a significant drop.

Ethereum's weekly decline was twice that of Bitcoin, falling over 14% and briefly dipping below $2,800, representing a more than 40% pullback from its all-time high, severely testing market confidence. The Man of Bitcoin warned that ETH had broken below the key level of $2,867, and a further drop below $2,773 would invalidate the bullish pattern. BigBullMike believes that only a return above $2,900 would allow it to stabilize. On-chain data exacerbated the panic, with Whale Alert detecting a dormant whale address that suddenly reactivated after nine years, transferring 50,000 ETH (approximately $145 million) to the Gemini exchange. This address still holds 85,000 ETH, and the potential selling pressure weighed on the market. However, Ted pointed out a significant divergence between ETH and the Russell 2000 index, unseen for many years, suggesting a potential catch-up rally in 2026, offering a glimmer of hope for long-term investors.

In the altcoin market, Memecoins on Solana finally showed some promise. Over the weekend, the White House released an AI image of Trump walking with penguins towards Greenland, captioned "Embrace the penguin," prompting Binance Alpha to list the Memecoin PENGUIN on Solana after a long hiatus. The token's market capitalization surged over 30 times, reaching a peak of $173 million, before settling back to around $85 million. Meanwhile, the automation tool Clawdbot garnered attention for its practicality. Despite controversy surrounding its token issuance, $clawd recorded a maximum increase of 720 times, reaching a market capitalization of $17 million (currently around $9 million), and causing Mac Mini shortages.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT on January 26)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap, GMGN)

• Bitcoin: $87,596 (year-to-date +0.2%), daily spot trading volume $50.36 billion.

• Ethereum: $2,895 (-2.26% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $30.47 billion.

• Fear of Greed Index: 20 (Extreme Panic)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 59.2%, ETH 11.8%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: ENSO, NOM, AUCTION, XRP, ZKC

• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 47.72% / 52.28%

• Sector Performance: The crypto market generally declined, with the GameFi sector leading the drop at nearly 5%.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 166,148 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $539 million. This included $162 million in BTC liquidations, $149 million in ETH liquidations, and $11.46 million in XRP liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of January 23)

• Bitcoin ETF: Net outflow of $1.328 billion this week

• Ethereum ETF: Net outflow of $611 million this week

• XRP ETF: Net outflow of $40.64 million this week

• SOL ETF: Net inflow of $9.5736 million this week

4. Today's Outlook

• The VanEck Avalanche spot ETF will be listed and traded on Nasdaq on January 26.

• Base network Perp DEX protocol RollX: First batch of applications closes on January 26th.

• Fabric plans to launch the ROBO token, which will be publicly sold on Kaito on January 26.

• Huma Season 2 Airdrop Part 2 has begun; applications close on January 26th.

• The SEC and CFTC will hold a joint event on "Regulatory Collaboration" on crypto on January 27 at 11 p.m.

• OKX will delist spot trading pairs for multiple currencies including ULTI, GEAR, and VRA.

• Impossible has announced details for the Flying Tulip pre-orders, with the public run starting on January 27th.

• US Treasury Secretary Bessant: New Federal Reserve Chair to be announced as early as the week of January 26 (Weekly Events)

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: River up 31.4%, Morpho up 1.6%, Algorand up 1.4%, LEO Token up 1%, and Tether Gold up 0.8%.

5. Hot News

• Data: Tokens such as SIGN and JUP will see significant unlocking, with SIGN unlocking value estimated at approximately $12.2 million.

• This Week's Preview | SEC and CFTC to Host Joint Event on Crypto-Themed "Regulatory Collaboration"; Moonbirds to Launch BIRB Token on Solana Blockchain

• A wallet received 465,000 HYPE tokens from Galaxy Digital OTC, worth $10.32 million.

• Optimism releases Superchain's quantum-resistant roadmap: ECDSA and EOA will be phased out within 10 years.

• A dormant ETH whale, dormant for nine years, transferred 50,000 ETH to Gemini, worth approximately $145 million.

• Spot silver broke through $107 for the first time, rising more than $35 this month.

• WLFI transferred USD1 staking rewards from its treasury to Binance, totaling $40 million worth of WLFI tokens.

• Japan may lift its ban on crypto ETFs in 2028, and SBI and Nomura are pushing forward with the development of related products.

• Spot gold breaks through the $5,000 mark for the first time in history.

• Space Public Sale Refund Details: Total $12.3 million, the first 5% of participants will only receive 11% to 21% refund.

• Tether Gold's market capitalization surpasses $2.5 billion, setting a new all-time high.

• A World Gold Council survey indicates that 95% of central banks will continue to buy gold in the future, while the US dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves has fallen below 60%.