Author: BruceBlue , former GP of Bing Ventures

How did the mysterious researcher Serenity earn over $225 in just 2 years?

Use the Checkpoint Theory to identify the irreplaceable physical switches in the AI era.

Use bottom-up supply chain reverse engineering to identify bottlenecks.

Before making any investment assumptions, we engage in intense debates with various AI models to identify potential loopholes and limitations, a process comparable to a top-tier investment IC.

Foreword

Over the past few months, if you've been following the secondary market for AI infrastructure, it's hard to avoid one name: Serenity @aleabitoreddit

A former trader permanently banned from Reddit WallStreetBets (WSB) has amassed over 300,000 followers in less than a year by switching platforms and using an anime-style female avatar. A single tweet from him can cause FTSE 250 constituent stocks to surge by nearly 90% in two days. His research has been cited by Bloomberg and Reuters, and even hedge funds are copytrading his work.

The market is amazed by his 22,561.99% return over the past two years, or questions his unverifiable background: "former AI research scientist," "Nature paper author," "RISC-V Foundation member," and even claims that he turned down an offer to head NVIDIA's AI team when NVIDIA's stock price was only around $6 in 2018.

 Serenity's AI holdings list

But what really matters is not his dazzling numbers, nor whether he actually published a paper in Nature.

What's truly important is that he provided a paradigm for reverse engineering the AI era and carried out blatant information arbitrage in the institutional blind spots of Wall Street.

At the core of this paradigm, he called it the Chokepoint Theory (Supply Chain Bottleneck Theory).

From WSB Gambler to Supply Chain Detective: A Turnaround in Identity

First, some background. His story began in early 2022 on r/wallstreetbets (WSB), a well-known retail investor forum on Reddit.

The account at the time was called AleaBito, displaying a distinctly WSB (Website for Investors) retail investor style, enthusiastic about high-leverage, high-risk, and highly entertaining options and IPO trading. He once traded a staggering $175,000 worth of one-sided "YOLO" options during the eToro ($ETOR) IPO, based on the satirical logic that the technical chart resembled a "bluefin tuna belly (Toro)." In his Hims & Hers Health ($HIMS ) trading, he allocated a $100,000 position based on the "Gym Bro Formation." Furthermore, when Supermicro ($SMCI) 's stock price was at a low point, he accurately predicted that its price would break through $120 based on the development of liquid cooling technology.

┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐

│ @aleabitoreddit / Serenity 的演变路径

├────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤

│ Reddit 阶段(2022年前) : AleaBito

│ 风格：结合硬核财务分析与高度娱乐化的“WSB散户”叙事，偏好高风险“YOLO”

│ 战绩：$ETOR (金枪鱼大腹), $HIMS (健身房猛男), $SMCI (低谷期预判突破$120)

│

│ X 平台阶段(2022至今) : Serenity

│ 风格：专注于AI 数据中心硬件、硅光子、先进封装的“自下而上”供应链反向工程

│ 战绩：$RPI, $SIVE, Soitec, $VLN, $NBIS

└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

The turning point came in early 2022. He published an in-depth fundamental research report on WSB about Crystal Technology (AXTI), a US-based manufacturer of compound semiconductor substrates. At the time, AXTI 's market capitalization was only $200 million, and its stock price was around $12. Because the report's professionalism clashed with the speculative atmosphere of the forum at the time, the moderator permanently banned the account on the grounds of "deliberately manipulating public opinion" and "pumping and dumping".

Subsequently, driven by soaring demand for compound semiconductors and optoelectronic substrates, $AXTI surged to $70, achieving a paper profit of over 1000%, becoming the "definitive battle" in the researcher's investment career. This ban directly prompted his migration to the X platform, and after renaming it "Serenity," he completely focused his investment efforts on the "bottleneck" links in core semiconductor hardware and the precision supply chain.

Core Framework: Finding the "Strait of Hormuz" in the AI Era

Most Wall Street sell-side firms view AI from a top-down perspective. They are focused on Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google, calculating trillions of dollars in Capex guidance, and engaging in fierce mathematical modeling battles around next quarter's revenue.

Serenity's perspective is bottom-up. He employs a supply chain reverse engineering model.

He used NVIDIA's H100, B200, and other GPU supercomputing clusters as the physical origin, deconstructing them layer by layer until he uncovered ultra-micro components or raw materials that are physically irreplaceable and monopolized by a single or very few companies. These highly segmented fields operate quietly outside the spotlight of trillion-dollar market capitalizations, but once a supply disruption occurs, the entire downstream AI industry cluster will face physical paralysis.

He calls these points “choke points” and compares them to the Strait of Hormuz, which controls global oil routes, or the perilla leaf, an indispensable yet overlooked ingredient in high-end Ginza kaiseki cuisine.

Integration of physical and geographic coordinate maps

Serenity has constructed a sophisticated physical and geopolitical map of global semiconductor bottlenecks. This map not only spans US, Taiwanese, European, and Japanese stock markets, but also integrates the geographical coordinates of the production facilities of each major player in the supply chain, technological patent barriers, geopolitical risks, and export control policies of various countries. When new geopolitical conflicts, export bans, or financial report disclosures occur, it can quickly pinpoint specific physical nodes on the supply chain map and use its highly concentrated stock positions to make highly certain directional bets.

Adversarial AI Proof Testing

Before officially releasing any investment hypotheses, Serenity employs a unique "red vs. blue" adversarial process. He feeds research drafts into different large language models, commanding the AI to act as an extremely demanding "Devil's Advocate," specifically identifying flaws in the investment logic, technological and physical limitations, threats from alternatives, and potential valuation biases. Only after passing multiple rounds of technical and logical scrutiny by the AI will he publicly release the report.

Physical barriers between silicon photonics and co-packaged optics (CPO)

In Serenity's supply chain map, the physical evolution of data center AI computing infrastructure is its core investment theme.

With the exponential growth of the number of parameters in large language models, the interconnection of GPU clusters with tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, or even millions of GPUs has become a physical bottleneck for expanding computing power. Under extremely high data throughput, traditional copper cable interconnects are facing insurmountable physical limits: high-frequency electrical signals will experience extremely high attenuation, uncontrollable electromagnetic interference, and high power consumption and heat dissipation burden when transmitted in copper media.

To break through this "copper wall and iron barrier," the "light-in-the-home" process—converting electrical signals into optical signals for high-bandwidth, low-latency transmission—has become an essential step in the construction of AI infrastructure. At the forefront of this physical layer revolution is the "Co-Packaged Optics" (CPO) architecture, led by giants like TSMC and Nvidia.

The core idea of CPO is to directly integrate the photoelectric conversion chip and the core computing chip onto the same multi-chip package substrate, shortening the transmission distance of electrical signals within the package to the millimeter level. This revolutionary architecture faces five major "bottleneck" physical barriers that Serenity has focused on addressing:

Serenity 的CPO (共封装光学) 反向工程图谱：

Nvidia H100/B200 集群(万卡互联需求)

│

▼

光进铜退(打破铜缆物理极限：衰减、功耗、散热)

│

▼

│ 硅光子与CPO 的五大物理壁垒(卡脖子环节)

│

│ 1. 高精度物理对准：光纤阵列单元(FAU) 与微透镜

│ → $FOCI (波若威, 台湾)：不可或缺的物理卡脖子地位

│

│ 2. 外部光源(ELS) 与高功率连续波(CW) DFB 激光器

│ → $SIVE (Sivers, 瑞典)：1.6T LRO/CPO 极为稀缺的物理资产

│

│ 3. 分子束外延(MBE) 设备壁垒

│ → $ALRIB (Riber, 法国)：全球独占者，卡住外延厂商的“产能脖子”

│

│ 4. 高纯度红磷原料(纯度需达到6N-7N，即99.9999% 以上)

│ → NCI (日本化学工业, 日本)：极少数特种化学巨头垄断

│

│ 5. 底层晶圆：绝缘体上硅(SOI) 衬底材料

│ → Soitec (法国)：Smart-Cut 专利，全球技术与产能绝对垄断者

High-precision physical alignment barrier

Because the optical waveguides inside silicon photonics chips are typically submicron in size, nanometer-level physical alignment between the externally introduced optical fiber and the waveguide is required. Any minute displacement will lead to severe "optical coupling loss." Serenity was the first in the English-speaking world to systematically and logically anchor the highly watched Taiwanese retail investor, FOCI ( 3363.TW ), to the global evolution of CPO technology.

External light source (ELS) and high-power continuous wave DFB laser barrier

Silicon, as an indirect bandgap semiconductor, cannot achieve high-efficiency light emission through electrical injection. CPO architectures must rely on a separate external light source to provide high-power continuous-wave laser light. This laser must maintain single-longitudinal-mode operation in the high-temperature, high-pressure data center environment, requiring extremely sophisticated manufacturing processes. Sivers Semiconductors $SIVE , listed in Stockholm, Sweden, possesses the relevant technology, making it a highly scarce physical asset in the CPO external light source supply chain.

Molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) equipment barriers

In the growth of compound semiconductor epitaxial wafers such as those for high-power lasers, the most crucial physical process is molecular beam epitaxy (MBE), which allows for the growth of ultrathin crystalline films with atomic-level precision. Serenity has secured an absolute monopoly on global MBE equipment: the French publicly listed company Riber $ALRIB .

High-purity red phosphorus raw material barrier

The manufacture of compound semiconductors (such as indium phosphide substrates) requires extremely stringent purity standards for raw materials. Serenity reverse-engineers down to the most basic chemical element: high-purity red phosphorus (purity above 99.9999%). Production capacity is almost entirely monopolized by a very few Japanese giants, such as Nippon Chemical Industries, Ltd. (NCI). If supply is disrupted, downstream operations will come to a complete standstill.

Material barriers for silicon-on-insulator (SOI) substrates

The underlying wafers for silicon photonics chips require SOI wafers. French company Soitec, with its proprietary Smart-Cut technology, holds an absolute global technological and production capacity monopoly in the silicon photonics SOI wafer market; even a giant like Japan's Shin-Etsu Chemical must pay it patent licensing fees.

Geopolitical game of humanoid robots and rare earth resources: the "physical switch"

In 2026, Serenity further expanded its "choke point" map horizontally to the geopolitical game between humanoid robots and rare earth elements.

The supply chain rift between the software "brain" and the hardware "body"

Most of the market discussion about Tesla's Optimus focuses on AI algorithms and large models, but ignores a fatal physical fact: the United States is losing the hardware and materials manufacturing race for humanoid robots.

The "brain" of the humanoid robot remains in the United States, but the "body" components responsible for movement (joints, actuators, reducers, etc.) are almost entirely controlled by Asian manufacturers.

Harmonic reducers: Green Harmonic (China), Harmonic Drive (Japan)
RV reducers: Nabtesco (Japan), Shuanghuan Transmission (China)
Linear actuators: Sanhua Intelligent Control (China)
Servo Systems and Ball Screws: Inovance Technology (China)

To keep costs down, American robotics companies have signed long-term contracts with these Chinese and Japanese component giants. This heavy dependence means that if geopolitical friction occurs, the hardware supply chain will face a physical shutdown.

Rare Earth "Demand Tsunami" and Morgan Stanley Model

Serenity uses Morgan Stanley's demand forecasting model to quantitatively extrapolate: if the global number of humanoid robots reaches 1 billion by 2050, their consumption of core rare earth resources will generate a catastrophic "demand tsunami."

Neodymium (Nd): Cumulative consumption is approximately 400,000 tons (15% of known global reserves).
Dysprosium: Cumulative consumption of approximately 80,000 tons (25% of known global reserves)
Terbium (Tb): Cumulative consumption is approximately 16,000 tons (30% of the world's known reserves).

These are the physical necessities for maintaining the permanent magnet motor's magnetism at high temperatures. Serenity emphasizes that if Western capital wants to ensure supply chain security, it must channel billions of dollars of heavy capital into rebuilding the domestic rare earth refining ecosystem.

Based on this, he listed three key physical sectors that must be closely monitored:

Magnetic metals: light rare earth (neodymium, praseodymium), heavy rare earth (dysprosium, terbium), special magnets (samarium, cobalt).
Structural metallurgy: Precision gear materials (titanium, vanadium, molybdenum), high-strength steel additives (niobium, chromium, nickel, manganese), wear-resistant elements (cerium, lanthanum).
Computing, sensing and power systems: advanced semiconductors (gallium, germanium), batteries and wiring (each unit consumes 2 kg lithium, 3 kg graphite, and 6.5 kg copper).

Case studies and empirical performance evaluation of core targets

Serenity has successfully identified and led the value revaluation of several classic mid-to-low market capitalization technology stocks in different global capital markets by keenly capturing technological barriers and commercialization inflection points.

│ Serenity 核心投资标的与实证业绩验证

│ $RPI (树莓派) | LSE 英国

│ 定位：AI 智能体群控物理底座

│ 起点：股价低于280 便士(IPO 发行价)

│ 验证：2026年3月年报披露利润强劲增长，芯片销量大增47%，印证了其在AI底座上的逻辑

│ 表现：财报发布单日暴涨近40%，自底部反弹超60%

│

│ $SIVE (Sivers) | 斯德哥尔摩瑞典

│ 定位：硅光CPO 高功率外部光源DFB 激光器核心供应商

│ 起点：推荐时市值仅1.3 亿美元

│ 验证：获捷普战略合作，获美国《CHIPS法案》660万美元支持

│ 表现：推荐后一年内市值飙升近19倍（现超23亿美元）

│

│ Soitec | 巴黎泛欧交易所法国

│ 定位：硅光子SOI 关键衬底材料全球专利与产能绝对垄断者

│ 起点：股价处于€43 底部区域

│ 验证：被台积电及英伟达列为一类独家材料标准

│ 表现：观点发布当天，欧洲市场股价瞬间暴涨16%

│

│ $VLN (Valens) | NYSE 美国

│ 定位：车载A-PHY 高速传输芯片

│ 起点：市值2.53 亿美元底部(推荐时账面现金9350 万美元，零债务，约60-62%毛利指引)

│ 验证：指出扫描器因代码碰撞错误导致的误定价

│ 表现：通过指出“代码碰撞”Bug，引导市场对该资产进行排雷式重估

│

│ $NBIS (Nebius Group) | NASDAQ 美国

│ 定位：欧洲最大AI GPU/Rubin 算力集群云服务商

│ 起点：$95 附近回调底部区域

│ 验证：手握37 亿美元净现金(2025年底)，未执行合同积压逼近500 亿美元

│ 表现：重回高速增长轨道，分析师目标价调升至$158-$211

In-depth analysis: Three dimensions of cognitive arbitrage

Raspberry Pie $RPI : Relative Value Game Model

While the market viewed Raspberry Pi as a declining educational component maker, Serenity captured a dramatic shift in the AI developer ecosystem: a surge of startups snapping up Raspberry Pis as physical isolation bases for deploying "AI intelligent agent swarm systems." This hoarding frenzy might be insignificant for Apple's £3.7 trillion Mac Mini, but for Raspberry Pi, with a market capitalization of only £500 million, it's a disruptive boost.

Valens Semiconductor $VLN : Information asymmetry arbitrage in quantitative code collisions

$VLN had $93.5 million in net cash, zero debt, a gross margin guidance of approximately 60-62%, and had secured an OEM contract with Mercedes-Benz, yet its market capitalization was only $253 million. Serenity discovered a physical bug: mainstream global quantitative stock selection scanners suffer from a "trading code collision error," confusing $VLN 's data with the Toronto Stock Exchange's energy stock $VLO , causing severe distortion of key indicators. He precisely listed the deviations, guiding funds to conduct a "mine-clearing" revaluation.

Nebius Group $NBIS : Deep Bottom Capture in Mechanical Panic

As a leading AI-dedicated cloud service provider in Europe, $NBIS's stock price plummeted to $95 due to algorithmic selling pressure caused by early complex convertible bond-to-equity conversion hedging arbitrage. Serenity points out that this is a "mechanical panic driven by non-fundamental factors." At a price of $95, the market is giving an absurdly low discount to a company with 2026 revenue guidance of $3-3.4 billion (nearly six-fold growth) and billions of dollars in net cash.

Retail investor capital coordination and potential structural risks

Expert-type retail investor collaborative network

Within Serenity's framework, retail investors are no longer simply "leeks" providing liquidity or blindly following trends; instead, they are reshaped into an "expert-based retail investor collaborative network." Traditional WSB relies on short-term option gamma squeezes or emotional memes to drive surges. In contrast, Serenity, through its completely free, technically demanding hardcore analysis, performs a deep "intellectual filter" on followers.

This highly specialized capital synergy enables them to quickly form a united front in many extremely inactive, remote micro-capital markets around the world that are not covered by Wall Street giants, thereby dominating the pricing of core assets.

Institutional blind spots and information asymmetry arbitrage

Analysts at large institutions are constrained by internal compliance requirements, minimum market capitalization thresholds (such as not covering companies under $1 billion), and regional specialization (US stock analysts don't write research on Sweden or Taiwan). This has created a huge research vacuum in the global supply chain. Serenity, as a completely anonymous independent researcher, disregards market capitalization and geographical barriers, directly guiding global bullish capital to aggressively fill these vacuums.

Structural risks and potential game dilemmas

However, blindly following this strategy comes with unavoidable and fatal risks:

Liquidity Traps: Micro-cap stocks have extremely low daily trading volumes. A surge in retail investor participation can cause a sudden spike in prices; however, if the technology fails to materialize as expected, the extremely narrow exit channels can lead to a severe sell-off.
The polarized public opinion and accusations of "market manipulation": A veteran short seller sharply criticized it as essentially a "pump and dump" scheme disguised with high-IQ academic packaging. Its game-like nature of using massive public opinion to attract retail investors to drive up prices has long exposed it to compliance allegations.
The "Fatal Minefield" of Single-Path Reliance in Physical Technology: Serenity's core holdings are all built on the assumptions that "CPO is the only physical evolution path" and "humanoid robots will see a surge of one billion units." This is a high-stakes gamble. If Nvidia discovers insurmountable engineering deadlocks in CPO and switches to advanced thin-film copper cables, or if the West is unable to rebuild the rare earth separation chain, its entire supply chain empire built on silicon photonics, SOI, MBE equipment, and heavy rare earths will be instantly disintegrated at the physical level.

In conclusion: Using the depth and breadth of geek technology to disrupt the breadth of finance.

The purpose of following Serenity is not to obtain a piece of code that will make you rich overnight, but to gain access to an analytical framework that breaks consensus.

In this age of information overload, the most common mistake retail investors make is trying to outpace institutions in terms of information acquisition speed, or trading macroeconomic data that has already been fully priced in. Serenity demonstrates another possibility: using reverse engineering to deconstruct the system, using AI as a "devil's advocate" to challenge one's own logic, and searching for those silent cogs that truly control the system's operation.

You don't need to be the next Serenity. You don't need to buy any of the stocks he buys.

But you should learn to ask a question like him:

In this system, who is the silent, irreplaceable physical switch?

If you can answer this question, you already have a perspective that surpasses 99% of market participants. The rest is simply waiting for the market to catch up with your understanding.

Disclaimer:

This article does not constitute any investment advice.

All background information regarding Serenity is self-reported and has not been verified by any third party.

His past performance does not guarantee his future results.

Before making any investment decisions, please conduct independent research.

NFA. DYOR.

London copper prices broke through $14,400 per tonne, surging more than 10%.

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