Metrics Ventures Market Watch: When undisputed gains are met with heavy selling pressure

Market Turbulence and Bitcoin Momentum: December saw a volatile crypto market, with Bitcoin's strong performance accelerating hesitant off-market fund inflows. Scarce-chip old coins showed clear profit effects, driving bottom altcoins upward, though actual market profits remained minimal. Early popular Meme coins began consolidating.
Weakening External Stimuli: The marginal impact of external events on crypto assets is fading. Both MSTR and BTC displayed high turnover signals at peaks, suggesting the "undisputed rise" may near its climax, aligning with asset operation laws.
Retail-Driven Purchasing Power: New buying pressure stems from retail market funds (U.S., South Korea, Europe), contradicting internal market logic. This shift confirms pricing power transfer, influencing future investment strategies.
Rise Without Disagreement = Weakness: The market's unanimous uptrend (especially in altcoins) lacks healthy disagreement, signaling underlying fragility. Despite Tether's stablecoin issuance, most altcoin rebounds appear unsustainable, hinting at a disrupted CEX trading system.
Short-Term Caution Flags: MSTR and BTC's recent volume spikes, coupled with Bitcoin's stalled rally at $100K, raise short-term concerns. On-chain cashing signals and off-market speculation (e.g., MSTR at $1,000) indicate accumulating risks.
Cycle Shift and Storm Warnings: The traditional 4-year crypto cycle may extend due to the USD system's virtualization trend. However, impending volatility urges investors to navigate cautiously.

Metrics Ventures is a data-driven crypto liquidity fund with expertise in primary/secondary markets, leveraging on/off-chain analysis and ecosystem collaborations to guide investments.

Metrics Ventures, a secondary fund in the crypto market, released a summary of its December market observations:

1/ The market this month is turbulent. The huge momentum of Bitcoin has accelerated the pace of entry of many hesitant funds outside the market. At the same time, the money-making effect of strong old coins with scarce chips is obvious, which has driven a large number of bottom Alts to grab the chip vacuum. However, the actual profit in the market is probably very small. Meme, which has accumulated a lot of popularity in the early stage, has already started consolidation early.

2/ As of the date of writing this article, the marginal effect of external events stimulating crypto assets has been clearly weakening day by day. At the same time, both MSTR and BTC have shown high turnover signals at the top. Everything will conform to the laws of asset operation. The undisputed rise will always have an end and a climax.

3/ The new purchasing power mainly comes from the new funds in the retail market, which is incompatible with the logic that has been interpreted in the circle. We have also witnessed the transfer and confirmation of the pricing power in the market, which has important guiding significance for subsequent investment work.

Review and comments on the overall market situation and market trends:

The market has been very hot recently. New funds, especially retail funds from the United States, South Korea and Europe, have brought a lively atmosphere to the market. Defi under improved compliance has seen endogenous push for the market. But it is worth noting that, in addition to the aforementioned sectors, the currencies that have performed well along the way are the old strong-branded currencies, and the altcoins that have risen in the entire market under this drive have surprisingly not had too much disagreement.

A rise without disagreement is meaningless, like water without roots, especially in a 24-hour continuous trading market. The lack of disagreement is an alternative manifestation of a weak market. Therefore, although Tether has been issuing more stablecoins, we are still pessimistic about the rebound of most altcoins. We are more inclined to believe that this seemingly lively rebound actually proves the subversion of the old CEX trading system.

In addition, we would like to remind you that the intensive volume increase of MSTR and BTC in the past two weeks and the failure of Bitcoin to continue to accelerate at 100,000 are quite pessimistic short-term signals. Although we believe that the trend still exists, when we notice the intensive cashing signals on the chain and the intensive off-site watching for MSTR to rise to 1,000 US dollars and the eternal trend of Bitcoin, the risks here have accumulated to a point that cannot be underestimated.

From historical experience, no one can achieve perfect timing, but respecting common sense and trends is the best decision in the current digital currency market. We believe that the previous 4-year cycle has changed, and this cycle will continue to extend its life cycle because we respect the trend of the US dollar system from dematerialization to virtualization. However, storms are coming, and we hope that everyone can safely complete the remaining market.

about Us

Metrics Ventures is a data and research driven crypto asset secondary market liquidity fund led by an experienced team of crypto professionals. The team has expertise in primary market incubation and secondary market trading, and plays an active role in industry development through in-depth on-chain/off-chain data analysis. MVC works with senior influencers in the crypto community to provide long-term empowerment support for projects, such as media and KOL resources, ecological collaboration resources, project strategies, economic model consulting capabilities, etc.